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   <div class="banner" id="cnn_300x250_sync_freewheel-rail_0_ba
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Vladimir Putin's remarkable comeback

   By Daniel Treisman

   Updated 1239 GMT (2039 HKT) February 3, 2014
   Russian president Vladimir Putin hits the slopes of Sochi during a
   pre-Olympic Winter Games visit to the Black Sea resort.
   Russian president Vladimir Putin hits the slopes of Sochi during a
   pre-Olympic Winter Games visit to the Black Sea resort.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   On the piste – Russian president Vladimir Putin hits the slopes of
   Sochi during a pre-Olympic Winter Games visit to the Black Sea resort.
   Hide Caption
   1 of 6
   Putin and his Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ride in a cable car as
   they visit the Cross Country and Biathlon Center in Sochi.
   Putin and his Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ride in a cable car as
   they visit the Cross Country and Biathlon Center in Sochi.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   VIP visitors – Putin and his Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ride in a
   cable car as they visit the Cross Country and Biathlon Center in Sochi.
   Hide Caption
   2 of 6
   Putin visits a hospital in Volgograd on New Year&#39;s Day to visit
   survivors of two explosions in the city which have called into question
   security at the 2014 Winter Games.
   Putin visits a hospital in Volgograd on New Year&#39;s Day to visit
   survivors of two explosions in the city which have called into question
   security at the 2014 Winter Games.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   Security fears – Putin visits a hospital in Volgograd on New Year's Day
   to visit survivors of two explosions in the city which have called into
   question security at the 2014 Winter Games.
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   3 of 6
   Putin braved the waters in southern Siberia during a vacation to show
   off his swimming skills.
   Putin braved the waters in southern Siberia during a vacation to show
   off his swimming skills.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   Tough guy – Putin braved the waters in southern Siberia during a
   vacation to show off his swimming skills.
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   4 of 6
   Putin shows off his legendary judo skills on a visit to a center in St
   Petersburg.
   Putin shows off his legendary judo skills on a visit to a center in St
   Petersburg.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   Fall guy – Putin shows off his legendary judo skills on a visit to a
   center in St Petersburg.
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   5 of 6
   Putin is shown facilities at Sochi ahead of the Winter Games which
   start next month at the Black Sea resort.
   Putin is shown facilities at Sochi ahead of the Winter Games which
   start next month at the Black Sea resort.
   6 photos: 'Action man' Putin takes to the slopes in Sochi
   Top facilities – Putin is shown facilities at Sochi ahead of the Winter
   Games which start next month at the Black Sea resort.
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   6 of 6
   Putin action2 Putin action 3 Putin action6 Putin action Putin action5
   Putin action4

Story highlights

     * Two years ago, Vladimir Putin was in trouble, with widespread
       protests and falling ratings
     * Daniel Treisman says Putin's fortunes have rebounded as the Sochi
       Olympics approach
     * Putin's ratings are up and he's had successes in international
       issues, Treisman says
     * Treisman: Putin faces economy with fading growth, and his luck
       could run out

   As Russian President Vladimir Putin opens the Winter Olympics in Sochi
   on February 7, there will be relief hidden behind his
   characteristically guarded smile. For Putin, the past two years have
   witnessed a remarkable recovery.

   Two years ago, Putin seemed to be on the ropes. Tens of thousands of
   Muscovites were flooding central squares to protest a parliamentary
   election they said had been tarnished by massive fraud. His approval
   ratings were in free fall, having dropped 15 points since December
   2010, according to polls from Moscow's Levada Center.

   Internationally, Putin was also on the defensive. He appeared to have
   isolated himself by backing the wrong horse in Syria's civil war. As
   rebels closed in on the Damascus suburbs, many observers thought Syrian
   President Bashar al-Assad, whom Putin supported, would soon be swept
   from power. If so, Russia stood to lose its only Mediterranean military
   outpost, the naval station it leased at Tartus.

   The European Union, alarmed at the continent's dependence on Russian
   gas, had raided offices of the Russian company Gazprom in Germany and
   the Czech Republic and was planning further investigations. When built,
   a projected EU- and U.S.-supported Nabucco pipeline threatened to pump
   gas from Azerbaijan to Vienna, undercutting Russian supplies.
   Daniel Treisman Daniel Treisman Daniel Treisman

   Not since the height of the global financial crisis had Putin seemed so
   embattled.

   Today, things look quite different. Over the following year, the Moscow
   protests died away. Putin's ratings stabilized in the low 60s, a level
   many Western leaders would envy. With a mixture of new repressive laws,
   prosecutions and co-optation tactics, the Kremlin managed to box in and
   divide its domestic critics.

   So confident did Putin feel by mid-2013 that he could, without losing
   sleep, allow the opposition activist Alexei Navalny to run for mayor of
   Moscow (he lost, though with an impressive 27%) and pardon his nemesis,
   the imprisoned former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, allowing him to
   leave for Switzerland.
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   Putin's star has also risen on the international stage. In September,
   he persuaded al-Assad to pledge to give up his chemical weapons, saving
   President Barack Obama from a military intervention the U.S. leader
   clearly dreaded. Al-Assad looks more secure today than he has since
   protests against his rule began.

   By granting asylum to the NSA leaker Edward Snowden, Putin managed --
   ironically, given Russia's own record of secrecy and spying -- to place
   himself on the side of a global movement for greater transparency and
   respect for citizens' privacy. One example: The New York Times, in a
   recent editorial, called Snowden's revelations "a great service" and
   urged Obama to end Snowden's vilification and offer him "a plea bargain
   or some form of clemency."

   In a showdown with the EU over the future of Ukraine in November, Putin
   again came out on top, persuading Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych
   to reject a trade deal with Europe to which Brussels had committed its
   prestige. Instead, Yanukovych pledged to deepen his country's trade
   ties with Russia, prompting furious protests from pro-Europe
   Ukrainians. As for Gazprom, its sales of gas to Europe rose by 16% in
   2013 to a record high. The Nabucco pipeline failed to line up committed
   gas supplies. According to one of the consortium's partners, as of June
   the project was "over."

   Most of these successes are temporary, and time is not on the Kremlin's
   side. Fighting continues to rage in Syria, and the destruction of
   al-Assad's chemical weapons has been painfully slow. Ukraine will
   sooner or later integrate with Europe. Yanukovych is struggling to stay
   in power as violence flares nightly in central Kiev. Gazprom's buoyant
   sales reflected an unusually cold winter in Europe.

   At home, the frustrations that fueled the demonstrations two years ago
   have not gone away, just lost a focus. A major economic deterioration
   could prompt a new, potentially more consequential wave of protests.
   Russia's growth rate has been falling steadily, reaching just 1.4% by
   the end of 2013, the lowest rate of Putin's years as President. And the
   Kremlin has no serious strategy to restart the economic engines.

   For now, Putin still has reason to feel confident. Even Sochi, which
   could have turned into a political disaster, might well pass off
   positively for the Kremlin. The advance bad press has lowered
   expectations so much that the Games will seem something of a success if
   they merely take place without the stadium collapsing or terrorists
   exploding bombs in Sochi itself.

   The de facto boycott by Western leaders over Russian intolerance toward
   gays will probably buy Putin a little support at home since most
   Russians share his discomfort with "nontraditional lifestyles" and do
   not like outsiders telling them what to do. In a recent poll, 73%
   agreed the state should ban public displays of homosexuality.

   What explains this turnaround?

   Putin has benefited more from luck than skill. Even without new
   repressive measures, the wave of demonstrations was bound to subside,
   following the natural ebb and flow of protest movements. Those that
   climax without producing leader turnover tend to lose momentum, though
   some might reignite months or years later.

   In international affairs, Putin profited from the mistakes of the West.
   Obama, having backed himself into a corner with talk of "red lines" and
   facing a humiliating veto in Congress, had to smile and accept help on
   Syria from the leader he had recently taunted for his "slouch." The
   European Union overplayed its hand in Ukraine, insisting on terms that
   Yanukovich thought would damage him politically. Putin, offering a
   bailout with fewer visible strings attached, walked away with the
   Ukrainian leader's agreement.

   One may debate whether the real mistake in the Snowden case was the
   extent of U.S. spying or the lax security that allowed Snowden to
   expose it. Either way, it was a U.S. blunder, which landed unexpectedly
   in Putin's lap.

   At some point, Putin's luck is bound to run out. Both at home and
   abroad, political challenges loom in 2014. Still, as he prepares to
   greet and congratulate the Olympic athletes, Russia's President is on a
   roll.

   Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.

   Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.
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