#alternate IFRAME: //www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-P73RLR * SUBSCRIBE * LOG IN * LOG OUT * REGISTER * MY PROFILE * Obituaries * Events * Jobs * Real Estate * Cars * Classified * PG Store Post-Gazette.com January 13, 2016 5:16 AM 7-day Forecast ____________________ (*) Post-Gazette.com ( ) Archives * Home * News * Local * Sports * Opinion * A & E * Life * Business * Video * Photo Advertisement [PGeButton_BlackBackground1.jpg] Vladimir Putin’s model for Syria In Chechnya, the Russian president laid waste to all opposition and put in place a brutal dictator October 13, 2015 12:00 AM By Jackson Diehl Western officials who pronounce themselves puzzled about Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Syria are missing some big clues. There is a clear model for the campaign Russia is pursuing on behalf of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, a legacy that is Mr. Putin’s pride: Chechnya. The Muslim republic in the North Caucasus and the decade-long war that Mr. Putin launched there in September 1999 have mostly been forgotten by the outside world since the dictator installed there by Mr. Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov, consolidated control in the late 2000s. But the Kremlin regards it as a “good, unique example in history of (the) combat of terrorism,” as Dmitry Medvedev, Mr. Putin’s prime minister, put it. Chechnya, Mr. Medvedev said last year, is “one of the business cards of Russia.” What are the components of this winning formula? First, define all opposition to the prevailing regime as terrorist, indistinguishable from the most extreme jihadists. That enables a fundamental political aim: to eliminate alternatives. In Syria today, moderate and secular opposition forces arguably are getting harder to find. That wasn’t the case in Chechnya in 1999. The country’s nationalist president, Aslan Maskhadov, had won a democratic election, defeating an Islamist opponent by 59 to 23 percent. His predecessor, Dzhokhar Dudayev, was so secularized that he was unaware how many times a day Muslims pray. Russia killed them both, along with every other moderate Chechen leader it could find, both at home and abroad. One was murdered in Vienna; another in Dubai. When Western leaders pressed Mr. Putin to negotiate with Mr. Maskhadov and other secular moderates, he invariably responded angrily. “Would you invite Osama bin Laden to the White House ... and let him dictate what he wants?” he demanded of one group of Western visitors. It should be no surprise that Russia’s first Syria bombings were aimed at the remnants of the moderate opposition. It’s not just that they are backed by the United States; they represent a viable alternative to the Assad regime, and so, under Chechnya rules, must be eliminated. “He doesn’t distinguish between [the Islamic State group] and a moderate Sunni opposition that wants to see Mr. Assad go,” President Barack Obama said after meeting Mr. Putin at the United Nations. “From their perspective, they’re all terrorists.” The first stages of the Russian military campaign in northern Syria have followed a familiar pattern. Heavy bombing and shelling of civilian areas preceded scorched-earth sweeps, just as in Chechnya. According to a report on Chechnya by the International Crisis Group, “war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by (Russian) troops” included “indiscriminate shelling and bombing, secret prisons, enforced disappearances, mass graves and death squads.” One common tactic, the report said, was “taking insurgents’ relatives as hostages, subjecting them to torture or summary execution and burning their homes.” In short, Assad’s forces and their Lebanese and Iranian allies may have to step up their already-notorious brutality to match Mr. Putin’s tactics in Chechnya. But they may have expert help: The Chechen dictator, Mr. Kadyrov, has asked Mr. Putin to send his 20,000-member personal army, known as the “kadyrovtsy,” to Syria. The state propaganda outlet Russia Today quoted him as saying he wanted “to go there and participate in special operations.” Mr. Kadyrov and his relationship with Mr. Putin offer another lesson to those wondering whether Mr. Putin is prepared to dispose of Assad — a prospect that Mr. Obama has repeatedly bet on. The Chechen strongman is, if anything, more sinister than the soft-spoken Assad; Mr. Kadyrov is known to do his own killing and torturing on occasion. He has solidified a cult of personality in Chechnya, extorts tribute from every business and citizen, and brazenly orders hits on his critics, from journalists and human rights activists to Russian politicians. Many believe him responsible for the murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, gunned down near Red Square last winter. Mr. Putin’s response has been to offer Mr. Kadyrov not just tolerance but full protection. The Crisis Group reports that senior Russian security officials tried to undermine the Chechen by arresting his gunmen for the Nemtsov murder. Mr. Putin rebuffed them, awarding Mr. Kadyrov a medal immediately after the hit. “Unless President Putin’s reputation is seriously damaged by his protege, the rules of the game are unlikely to change,” concluded the report. The same rules will apply to Assad. Mr. Obama’s principal response to Mr. Putin’s new offensive has been to predict that the result will be “a quagmire.” But Mr. Putin has heard that before. For years Western leaders warned him that the war in Chechnya was unwinnable, that the only solution was political. Mr. Putin nevertheless persisted through a decade and more of bloody fighting that cost Russia at least 6,000 military casualties and Chechnya uncounted tens of thousands. The result was the pacification he now trumpets as a “calling card.” Don’t expect him to give up anytime soon on a similar result in Syria. Jackson Diehl is deputy editorial page editor for The Washington Post. Vladimir Putin - Bashar Assad - Ramzan Kadyrov - Dmitry Medvedev - Osama bin Laden - Barack Obama - Boris Nemtsov - Russia - Chechnya - syria - Eastern Europe - Europe - Middle East - Russia government - Syria government - Russian armed forces Sign up for free newsletters and get more of the Post-Gazette delivered to your inbox Get expanded access – register for free. Your e-mail: _________________________ Your Name: _________________________ Friends e-mail: _________________________ Friends Name: _________________________ Message: ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ [captcha] Captcha _________________________ (BUTTON) Submit Advertisement Create a free PG account. (BUTTON) Register - FREE Already have an account? 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