Debra Black
Staff Reporter
The impact of Moammar Gadhafi’s death may reach far beyond the borders of Libya.
Ever since the dawning of the Arab Spring earlier this year, people across the Middle East have been speaking out, demanding more freedoms, more autonomy and less repression.
So after Gadhafi’s ignominious end, the question many are asking is: “Who is next?”
Many believe it may be the rulers of Bahrain, Yemen and Syria.
“This is a lesson for all dictatorships: The clear fate of all who kill his people is to end up under the feet of the nation,” Omar Al-Muqdad, a Syrian opposition activist in exile in Turkey, told CNN.
“This will signal the death of the idea that Arab leaders are invincible,” said activist and blogger Hossam Hamalawi in an Associated Press story.
“Mubarak is in a cage, Ben Ali ran away, and now Gadhafi killed . . . All this will bring down the red line that we can’t get these guys.”
Muqdad said Gadhafi’s death would boost efforts to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad.
And critics of Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh also were reported to be inspired by the events in Libya.
Yemeni blogger Afrah Nasser was quoted by CNN as saying: “I hope Saleh is watching the news closely.”
In Bahrain, the largest opposition group Al Wefaq said Gadhafi’s death was “a very important message for all those who rule their people with an iron fist.”
Analysts say Bahrain may be able to postpone any immediate or violent change. Yemen seems to be the closest to a quick change of power, with Saleh suggesting in recent weeks he was edging toward the door.
“This could have the effect of pushing him through it,” David Hartwell, a senior Middle East analyst at HIS Global Insight in London, told CNN.
Syria faces a more difficult challenge, because the middle classes have yet to throw their support behind the opposition.
Here’s a snapshot of the political landscape in the three countries post-Gadhafi:
Bahrain
The oldest British ally in the Gulf and former a British protectorate gained independence in 1971. It is governed by the ruling Al Khalifa family.
Known as one of the more progressive of the Gulf nations, it didn’t escape the Arab Spring and sectarian violence, as the majority Shiites rose up against the Sunni rulers.
Some critics of the ruling family would like to see Hassan Mushaima, the leader of the hardline Shiite Haq Party, seize the reins of power. In March, Mushaima called for the formation of an Islamic Republic.
At least 35 people have been killed since the revolt began in February, the Associated Press reports.
An international commission is investigating alleged human rights abuses against Shiite protesters. The conclusions of the inquiry — originally due this week but delayed until Nov. 23 — and what the government does with its recommendations could be a turning point.
Yemen
Analysts are predicting a regime change here. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has pledged in recent weeks to leave office, but he has repeatedly balked at a plan proposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council to hand over power to his deputy and step down in exchange for immunity.
The UN Security Council on Friday condemned the Yemeni government crackdown on protesters and urged it to sign the agreement. It is not clear whether Saleh would agree to the deal if the opposition refuses to protect him and his family from prosecution. But there is a growing sense of frustration as he drags out his departure.
Syria
Middle East analysts say the situation is Syria is more fluid and difficult to predict. Protesters are unrelenting, and soldiers have been defecting in droves to join the uprising.
But the troop leaders remaining in the armed forces are loyal and highly committed to President Bashar Assad. Their fates are tied because they belong to the same minority Alawite sect, and because of their support, Assad has the ability to crack down on a widespread basis. Syria’s primary patron is Iran, which would not support a regime change. For the moment, Assad isn’t budging.
