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   Random comments from a professor of politics and government on the
   events of the day.
   I teach in the Politics and Government department at Illinois State
   University, in Normal, IL, And yes: it's pretty normal here. Thanks for
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   May 30, 2011
   Arab Spring, Prague Spring

   Eric Voeten at The Monkey Cage has a nice take on the similarities and
   differences between what has been going on across the Arab world this
   Spring and Summer, and events that led to the fall of the Soviet Empire
   across eastern Europe in 1989.

   You can read the whole piece here, but the highlights follow:

   ——————————-

   “Similarities:

   1) Neither set of movements was predicted—even by experts….

   2) A key part of the anti-regime movements in both Eastern Europe and
   the Middle East resulted from elite defections, as
   political/military/security forces changed loyalties….

   3) Although both sets of movements involved national events that were
   filtered through domestic contexts, they were also clear illustrations
   of the “international demonstration effect,” or “snowballing.”…

   4) The regional concentration in both cases has been remarkable, making
   it easy to follow by simply looking at a geographic map….

   5) The remarkable events in both regions provide a powerful challenge
   to easy and dismissive arguments about whether people in certain
   cultures yearn for freedom….

   Differences:

   1) The larger geo-strategic environment is very different today….

   2) It is important to remember that the East European states were not
   autonomous….

   3) The 1989 movements were not the first democratic protests in the
   region….

   4) The East European movements generally fit the classic (from
   O’Donnell and Schmitter’s Transitions from Authoritarian Rule,
   published in 1986) model of elite agency, whereby divisions between
   hard-liners and soft-liners in the regime led to pacts with the
   opposition, resulting in compromises on both sides….

   5) Unlike today in the Middle East, when the “opposition” is largely
   faceless, in Eastern Europe there were well-recognized dissidents who
   had much popular legitimacy….

   6) Except for the Catholic Church in Poland, religion was almost
   entirely absent in the East European movements….

   7) All movements depend on communication—this has not changed—but the
   speed of the new media has obviously changed tremendously….

   8)  After the movements of 1989 ran their course, the communist regimes
   actually fell (even if they reorganized and competed electorally in
   some cases)….

   9) Extending from point 5, when the communist regimes fell, known
   opposition leaders were ready to assume office….

   10) In terms of the eventual consolidation of democracy in Eastern
   Europe, NATO and the European Union have played crucial roles by
   encouraging democratic reforms and making them conditions of
   membership.”
   11:26am  |   URL: http://tumblr.com/ZPUuPy5btvk2
   (Notes: 11)

   Filed under: Arab Spring Prague Spring revolutions social capital
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     More interesting points...comparisons between...2011 “Arab...
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     Economist magazine...predicted Mubarak’s regime would soon collapse
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