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Cohen + The Revenge of Montozy - by Aaron Wiener + Brothers in Arms - by Michael Weiss and Julia Pettengill + The Forbidden Citizen - by Sophie Richardson + The Little Economy That Could - by Jeffrey Frankel + Finish Him - by Daniel Byman * + FP Passport: Will cold shut down Russia's protests? + Transitions: Uganda: The shrinking space for freedom of speech + Daniel W. Drezner: Intervening to win? + The Middle East Channel: Violence continues in Egypt as thousands march in protest + The AfPak Channel: Daily Brief: Officials quick to explain Panetta statements + The Multilateralist: How Russia views the veto power + The Multilateralist: The woes of Europe's foreign ministry + The Best Defense: Leaving town: Is it a sign of an endgame in Syria when Hamas votes with its feet? [dept_arrow.gif] FEATURE PRINT | TEXT SIZE [text_down.gif] [text_up.gif] | EMAIL | SINGLE PAGE What Happens When the Arab Spring Turns to Summer? Ruminations on the revolutions of 2011. BY DAVID IGNATIUS | APRIL 22, 2011 [110422_109691175_Embracing_Soldier.jpg] Nabil Fahmy, Egypt's former ambassador to Washington, was commenting during a recent visit to the United States about the prospects for the Arab Spring. He cautioned that Americans didn't understand the weather in his part of the world. For Arabs, he said, it is always either summer or winter. After the exhilarating days in Tahrir Square that led to the resignation on Feb. 11 of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, many observers have felt a chill in the political air -- whatever the season may be. The first electoral test of the new democracy came in the March 19 constitutional referendum. That resulted in resounding defeat for the democracy-building "no" vote urged by many leaders of the Tahrir Square revolution -- and a thumping 77 percent victory for the "yes" position advocated by the unspoken alliance between the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the Muslim Brotherhood. [comment_bubble.gif] COMMENTS (13) SHARE: Twitter Reddit Buzz Bookmark and Share More... Egypt's democratic revolutionaries, to be sure, are fighting back. They have stepped up their own political organizing and are forming new parties. They see the danger that their revolution will be hijacked, and they are organizing against that outcome. To say that there are dangers ahead for Egypt and its neighbors is only to state the obvious. For the historical truth is that although revolutions are always lovable in their infancy, they tend to become less so as they age. The idealistic youth on the barricades, who seem drawn from the cast of Les Misérables, are replaced by small groups of determined revolutionaries who have the will and ideological or religious determination to steer the masses. And the revolutionary disorder, which seemed so exciting at first, becomes dark and insecure to the point that people demand order and give up the freedoms they fought so hard to obtain. I don't mean to predict that the Arab Spring will turn to winter. In truth, we don't know where this process is heading; there are too many inflection points and uncertainties. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates had it right when he said in March that this is "dark territory"; it's impossible to read the overhead imagery, so to speak, and know what's down there in terms of outcomes. In what follows, I want to offer a skeptical analytical look -- not predicting failure, but warning of obstacles ahead. First, the reality of the Arab revolution: In my more than 30 years of covering foreign news, I have never seen anything quite like what is happening now in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria -- and datelines yet to be announced. I see this process as part of a "global political awakening" -- a movement for change that is enabled and accelerated by modern technology, but is also comparable to some other periods of revolutionary change in modern history. I owe the "awakening" idea to Zbigniew Brzezinski. Three years ago, with the 2008 U.S. presidential election approaching, I worked with Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft on a book called America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy. The theme was that a global process of change was under way -- and that the basics of U.S. foreign policy needed to be reimagined by the next president. In my introduction, I described the central insight of these two former national security advisors this way: "Both men describe a political revolution that's sweeping the world -- Brzezinski speaks of a global awakening, while Scowcroft describes a yearning for dignity. They want America on the side of that process of change." We are now seeing the full force of that political awakening as it sweeps across the Middle East. How and why did it happen? What similar events have occurred in the past? And what are the consequences for America? PEDRO UGARTE/AFP/Getty Images 1234567NEXT [pag_arrow_right.gif] Save big when you subscribe to FP. [arr-indent.gif] SUBJECTS: FREEDOM, MILITARY, JUSTICE, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, EGYPT, LIBYA, DEMOCRACY, ARAB WORLD David Ignatius is a columnist for the Washington Post and author of the forthcoming novel Bloodmoney. This article is adapted from a lecture he gave April 15 at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, where he was a visiting fellow. SHARE THIS ARTICLE: Facebook|Twitter|Reddit [you_might_like.gif] [featured_today_fp.gif] * Meet Super Mario – All That Stands Between Europe And German Domination * Would Azerbaijan Change Its Name Just to Annoy Iran? * Why Cutting and Running in Afghanistan Is Good Politics * Georgian President: Putin Is the New Mubarak [comments_hed.gif] (13) HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY 4:34 AM ET April 24, 2011 Speculation One hesitates to be anything but awed by Mr Ignatius’ so intricate construction but his speculation here is perhaps a touch tortuous. Very little may be anticipated about the future of an exclusively Arab phenomenon viewed through a lens compounded of highly selective portions of non-Arab socio-political history, beginning with the assumption that events will lead to alternative regimes in the current national borders when it may be that those borders, largely imposed by Western interests on the relics of the Ottoman empire, are themselves targets and since they have been maintained by autocratic rulers the rulers must first fall if the borders are to adapt. It is too easy to promote democracy as a motivating principle; at this stage it is little more than a mantra for peoples united in a desire to bring down existing structures. This was clear in Egypt where protesters’ demands were consistently and unequivocally voiced in terms of what must go rather than what must come. Few, motivated in the manner of these protesters, can define, let alone agree on, the future political landscape except in terms of what they no longer want in it. Some commentators have voiced the notion that the outcome might head towards a federal Pan-Arab entity of some kind. Were that to be the direction then the cohesive authority of Islam might echo earlier periods of Arab power, or even of the role of Christianity in the evolution of Western culture. It is all very well separating Church and State but they can also have a fruitful symbiosis. It is further questionable whether these peoples are uniformly eager to leap into the metaphor of the American dream. It may seem OK from the inside but studied objectively, as it regularly is these days in non-US media, serious fault lines can be identified. It will also not necessarily be that easy to sweep past US support for the fallen autocrats, or the ambiguities of current US policy, under the carpet; remember most Arabs have grown up in the shadow of what many perceive as pernicious US influence. People may accept aid if it is offered but often it offends their dignity to do so and, rather than purchasing respect, may actually breed resentment. And then there is the Israel problem. The author writes, “Obama has been wise to take a low-key approach to these developments…”. Not nearly low-key enough, perhaps, certainly not as low-key as Russia or China. As for the catalogue of US interests so succinctly derived from Stephen Walt, all the things about oil and so on are perfectly valid but, as Sheik Yamani once memorably put it: the Stone Age did not come to an end because the cavemen ran out of stone. DTBILINSKI 1:13 PM ET April 24, 2011 Summer It is a little unsettling that the author of this article has 30 years of experience and has never seen anything quite like this. At the same time it might just tun out for the better but I'll leave the speculating to the speculators. In fact, I'm just going to enjoy my time at college, getting good grades and playing homebrew for wii games all day. Anyways, I hope this all settles soon. I just hope the violence stops for everyones sake. Some commentators have voiced the notion that the outcome might head towards a federal Pan-Arab entity of some kind. Were that to be the direction then the cohesive authority of Islam might echo earlier periods of Arab power, or even of the role of Christianity in the evolution of Western culture. It is all very well separating Church and State but they can also have a fruitful symbiosis. DANITA EDWARDS 10:11 PM ET April 24, 2011 opportunity springs from the ashes Soraya Salti, Senior Vice President, INJAZ al-Arab said, “With the current economic challenges, it is more important than ever that the Arab world addresses business entrepreneurship and the absence of related formalised education. The support of INJAZ programs provides an opportunity for the private sector to contribute to the development of youth in this area. Our 3rd annual competition is testament to the success of our programs in efforts to alleviate the employment challenges in our region and we are so pleased to receive the positive response and ongoing partnership from the private sector.” ”The boundless enthusiasm and caliber of young people who will be representing their respective countries in this year’s competition is nothing short of exceptional. We cannot wait to get started in Beirut!” continued Salti. Most of the opportunity will actually exist for people offering medical tours or medical services for arabs. They have been unable to get critical necessary care in europe and america since 9-11 and with the crumbling medical infrastructure need to find solutions elsewhere. While young people constitute a third of the working age population in MENA, they account for half of the unemployed, the highest rate in the world. INJAZ al-Arab works to combat this problem by recognizing the validity of self employment as a career option and by teaching practical business and economic courses. JAMESSOCHENFELDPHD 10:42 PM ET April 24, 2011 The UN needs to do more The United Nations can not by itself create a state because that authority is simply absent from its charter. Doing so would require the mutual consent of the parties with standing. The UN could conceivably recognize some Palestinian deligation,but agreement would still be required by Israel to dispose of any territory which they are disputing. Read the fine print. The UN has significant limitations to its perceived power. There is a complex (often contradictory) "The Shining" maze of caviots and sub clauses. There was no other way to get 190, often very disparate nations to join any common 'tribunal'. But there is no "one world goverment" and thank heaven for that small if temporary miracle. GORDIANO 12:03 AM ET April 25, 2011 There is no doubt that There is no doubt that tougher days are a head to sort out the changes being made or attempted in the middle east by all the countries mentioned. Its a case of how hard will the oppressed fight for change versus the tyrants trying to hold on to their rule and wealth. There Grafica is no doubt that tyrants fight harder as they are prepared to go to greater lengths. JOHNRDKIDD 2:55 AM ET April 25, 2011 Neither Netanyahu or Israel is innocent, nor is Hamas Both Israel and the Palestinians have an evidenced and valid claim to the land between the Sea and the River - and both are well aware of this - yet although Ben Gurion freely acknowledged that fact, now Netanyahu and Hamas deny it! And so global peace is continually threatened, day after day as the US fuels the arms race in the Middle East under the pretext of ‘democracy’, by the shipment there of ever increasing amounts of arms, whilst using its veto in the UN Security Council, time after time. The killing of civilians is a terrorist act under the Geneva Conventions subscribed to by all the major powers in the world – but the settlement of occupied territory by the occupier is also an illegal act of the utmost gravity. Terrorism by both Israel and the PLO is a crime against the other that must now finally cease after over 60 years. The global community is sickened and tired by the killings on both sides. Unless both parties acknowledge the valiidity of eachother’s claim, then the UN, the US and the EU should discontinue all ties including trade, defence and aid. Netanyahu and Israel are not innocent, and neither is Hamas or the PLO. FRED_J9 4:00 AM ET April 25, 2011 nasty israel intent That's very funny !! Most of the opportunity will actually exist for people offering medical tours or medical services for. Journal oujda. They have been unable to get critical necessary care in europe and america since 9-11 and with the crumbling medical infrastructure need to find solutions elsewhere meknes BLOGAS 11:16 AM ET April 25, 2011 The boundless enthusiasm and The boundless enthusiasm and caliber of young people who will be representing their respective countries in this year’s competition is nothing short of exceptional. We cannot wait to get started in Beirut!” continued Salt. BLOGAS 11:22 AM ET April 25, 2011 Most of the opportunity will Most of the opportunity will actually exist for people offering medical tours or medical services for arabs. They have been unable to get critical necessary care in europe and america since 9-11 and with the crumbling medical infrastructure need to find solutions elsewhere. MUSICMASTER 4:43 PM ET April 26, 2011 This was not about democracy These were protests against a situation in the country with too much corruption and too little economic freedom. As the regime has fallen the default option to replace it is democracy. But I think it is wrong to state that these people were protesting for democracy. In Syria and Libya with their complex ethnic situations there are even many people who are afraid that democracy might lead to trouble. MAC THELIN 8:09 AM ET May 19, 2011 Beginning with the assumption Beginning with the assumption that events will lead to alternative regimes in the current national borders when it may be that those borders, largely imposed by Western interests on the relics of the Ottoman empire, are themselves targets and since they have been maintained by autocratic rulers the rulers must first fall if the borders are to adapt.It is too easy to promote democracy as a motivating principle; at this stage it is little more than a mantra for peoples united in a desire to bring down existing structures. This was clear in Egypt where protesters’ demands were consistently and unequivocally voiced in terms of what must go rather than what must come. Few, motivated in the manner of these protesters, can define, let alone agree on, the future political landscape except in terms of what they no longer want in it.Some commentators have voiced the notion that the outcome might head towards a federal Pan-Arab entity of some kind. Were that to be the direction then the cohesive authority of Islam might echo earlier periods of Arab power, or even of the role of Christianity in the evolution of Western culture. It is all very well separating Church and State but they can also have a fruitful symbiosis. Both Israel and the Palestinians have an evidenced and valid claim to the land between the Sea and the River - and both are well aware of this - yet although Ben Gurion freely acknowledged that fact, now Netanyahu and Hamas deny it!And so global peace is continually threatened, day after day as the US fuels the arms race in the Middle East under the pretext of ‘democracy’, by the shipment there of ever increasing amounts of arms, whilst using its veto in the UN Security Council, time after time.The killing of civilians is a terrorist act under the Geneva Conventions subscribed to by all the major powers in the world – but the settlement of occupied territory by the occupier is also an illegal act of the utmost gravity.Terrorism by both Israel and the PLO is a crime against the other that must now finally cease after over 60 years. The global community is sickened and tired by the killings on both sides. Unless both parties acknowledge the valiidity of eachother’s claim, then the UN, the US and the EU should discontinue all ties including trade, defence and aid.The support of INJAZ programs provides an opportunity for the private sector to contribute to the development of youth in this area. Our 3rd annual competition is testament to the success of our programs in efforts to alleviate the employment challenges in our region and we are so pleased to receive the positive response and ongoing partnership from the private sector.””The boundless enthusiasm and caliber of young people who will be representing their respective countries in this year’s competition is nothing short of exceptional. We cannot wait to get started in Beirut!” continued Salti. Most of the opportunity will actually exist for people offering medical tours or medical services for arabs. They have been unable to get critical necessary care in europe and america since 9-11 and with the crumbling medical infrastructure need to find solutions elsewhere. PERSON_NICE 1:09 AM ET May 20, 2011 his was clear in Egypt where his was clear in Egypt where protesters’ demands were consistently and unequivocally voiced in terms of what must go rather than what must come. Few, motivated in the manner of these protesters, can define, let alone agree on, the future political landscape except in terms of what they no longer want in it thetrafficplayerreview.Both Israel and the Palestinians have an evidenced and valid claim to the land between the Sea and the River - and both are well aware of this - yet although Ben Gurion freely acknowledged that fact, now Netanyahu and Hamas deny it!And so global peace is continually threatened, day after day as the US fuels the arms race in the Middle East under the pretext of ‘democracy’, by the shipment there of ever increasing amounts of arms, whilst using its veto in the UN Security Council, time after time. WEI LARK 10:08 AM ET May 21, 2011 What Happens When the Arab Spring Turns to Summer? Ruminations on the revolutions of 2011. Most of the opportunity will actually exist for people offering medical tours or medical services for arabs. They have been unable to get critical necessary care in europe and america since 9-11 and with the crumbling medical infrastructure need to find solutions elsewhere. "First, the reality of the Arab revolution: In my more than 30 years of covering foreign news, I have never seen anything quite like what is happening now in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria -- and datelines yet to be announced hair removal. I see this process as part of a "global political awakening" -- a movement for change that is enabled and accelerated by modern technology, but is also comparable to some other periods of revolutionary change in modern history. " Some commentators have voiced the notion that the outcome might head towards a federal Pan-Arab entity of some kind. [headerFACEBOOK.png] Most Viewed Most Commented 1. What America Needs to Know About EMPs 2. Congo’s New Mobutu 3. Legalize It 4. Finish Him 5. The Revenge of Montozy 6. The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers 7. 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