#[1]Business & Money » Will Burma Become Asiaâs Next Economic Tiger? Comments Feed [2]alternate [3]alternate [4]Business & Money [5]WordPress.com [6]Skip to Content [7]TIME [8]Business & Money Sections → * [9]NewsFeed * [10]U.S. * [11]Politics * [12]World * [13]Business * [14]Tech * [15]Health * [16]Science * [17]Entertainment * [18]Style * [19]Sports * [20]Opinion * [21]Photos * [22]Magazine * [23]Video * [24]LIFE.com * [25]Lists * [26]TIME Home * [27]Economy * [28]Wall Street * [29]Tech * [30]Small Business * [31]Personal Finance * [32]Real Estate * [33]Business of Creativity * [34]Management * [35]Careers * [36]New Energy * [37]Davos * [38]Magazine * [39]Video * [40]LIFE * [41]Person of the Year [42]Search Search TIME ____________________ Go * [43]Follow + [44]Facebook + [45]Twitter + [46]Google+ + [47]Tumblr + [48]RSS * [49]Apps [50]Asia Will Burma Become Asiaâs Next Economic Tiger? By [51]Michael SchumanAug. 22, 2012[52]0 * [53]Share + + + + + Burma Economy STR / AFP / Getty Images People walk through a small bazaar at the Golden Rock temple in Burma's northeastern city of Kyaiktiyo, some 160 km from Rangoon, on Feb. 20, 2012 * [54]Email * [55]Print * [56]Share + [57]Facebook + [58]Twitter + [59]Tumblr + [60]LinkedIn + [61]StumbleUpon + [62]Reddit + [63]Digg + [64]Mixx + [65]Delicious + [66]Google+ * [67]Comment Follow [68]@TIMEBusiness On paper at least, [69]Burma has all the elements required to create another Asian economic miracle. With a population of 48 million, the country has a large pool of low-cost workers custom-made to attract the labor-intensive manufacturing that jump-started income growth from [70]South Korea to Malaysia. Natural resources, such as timber and minerals, could woo billions in foreign investment. And its strategic position nestled between China and India could turn Burma into a prime location for tapping into the megagrowth of those two Asian giants. Translating that promise into real dollars isnât going to be easy, however. Lots of nations possess the potential for economic greatness. The problem is that few are ever able to realize it. Burma has been a case study in that failure. For 50 years now, Burma has been one of Asiaâs great disappointments. After [71]World War II, it was one of the regionâs richest nations; today, it has sunk to among its poorest. Behind the woes is crushingly awful economic management by a military dictatorship that brutalized and isolated the country. While its neighbors Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia joined the ranks of Asiaâs tiger economies, Burma wallowed in poverty, penalized by sanctions and impoverished by an unwillingness to reform politically or economically. (PHOTOS: [72]Burmaâs Aung San Suu Kyi Makes Her Parliamentary Debut) In recent months, though, a nascent democratic awakening has raised hopes among Asiaâs business community that Burma could finally become the attractive place to invest it has always promised to be. The long-suffering pro-democracy opposition was permitted to contest parliamentary by-elections in April. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was released from house arrest in November 2010, was allowed to campaign for a seat in the legislature, which she won. That liberalization has convinced the U.S. and the E.U. to start lifting economic sanctions that had been imposed on the country. The political reform has opened the door to achieving a real economic revival. Now that Burma has come in from the cold, it can start in earnest to woo the foreign investment it so badly needs. There is a window of opportunity here. China has been the 400-kg gorilla of Asia for years, sucking up vast sums of investment, especially in the low-end manufacturing that could create much needed jobs in Burma. But as costs rise rapidly in the Middle Kingdom, businesses are looking for new, cheaper destinations for their factories. Burma could very well fill the void. (MORE: [73]Treatment of Muslim Rohingya Minority Shows Burma Has a Long Way to Go) Still, Burma might find that the cash it desires wonât come so easily. Burma, officially known as Myanmar, finds itself way, way, way behind its neighbors in development. As my colleague Hannah Beech put it in a recent [74]magazine story on Burma: âIn economic terms, the country is aspiring just to become a Bangladesh.â Burma lacks the infrastructure, sound regulatory environment and trained workforce to attract foreign investment in large sums. Burma âhas very strong potential, but before realizing that potential, it has to tackle challenges to its development,â says Asian Development Bank (ADB) economist Cyn-Young Park. A [75]report she wrote for the ADB, released on Monday, didnât mince words when outlining these hurdles: Myanmar also faces multiple constraints and risks that may limit its progress. Key constraints include a weak macroeconomic-management framework devoid of market mechanisms, insufficient fiscal resources and inefficient domestic-fund mobilization, limited access to finance, deficient infrastructure, inadequate social services that hamper human-capital development and limited industrial diversification. If that sounds daunting, it is. There has already been some progress, however. In April, the government reformed its currency system, allowing for a single, market-determined exchange rate, which will help stabilize the climate for investment. But thatâs just a start. The government has to marshal funds for investment in new roads and other infrastructure so manufacturers could get their products to markets around the world. More money is needed to beef up the nationâs schools to upgrade the quality of the workforce. Burma âhas to invest in its future,â says Park. Achieving that will entail reform of the government itself, so that it can raise revenues and spend them more efficiently. (MORE: [76]As Rangoon Races Forward, a Push to Preserve Its Architectural Past) Even more, Burma needs to create the legal framework for a functioning market economy. After being cut off in its own alternate economic universe for decades, the country simply lacks the clear rules and regulations foreign companies require to safely and confidently invest. My colleague [77]Emily Rauhala found that out in April, when she [78]attended a seminar for investors held in Hong Kong by the Burmese government. The room was packed with businesspeople, who peppered the government representatives with questions. Can foreigners own property? Will state companies play fair? The answers that came back were less than satisfying. Often, the officials had no clear response. Burma has to put in place âthe basics for the market to function,â says Park. âIt is going to take a while for the government to be fully adjusted to the market system.â That may be the biggest question facing the future of Burma. Achieving all these reforms and implementing the necessary policies requires a certain degree of expertise on the part of the government â in Burmaâs case, an expertise that could well be lacking. Stephen Groff, a vice president at ADB, says that âthe will to move forward is very strongâ but âthe challenge is: How do you build the competency quickly?â Groff says there is a core group of economic experts surrounding the senior leaders, but âafter that, it gets really thin really quickly.â The inexperience of Burmaâs bureaucracy in running a modern economy could easily derail the implementation of new national policies. âIn order for the reform effort to be sustained, it has to grow roots,â Groff says. Still, there is reason for continued hope. If Burma manages to overcome these hurdles, its potential is undeniable. ADB estimates that growth could reach 7% or 8% annually, and per capita income could triple by 2030. After so many decades in the wilderness, such a performance would finally make Burma roar. MORE: [79]Titanic 3-D First Hollywood Film Released in Burma in a Generation 11 comments [80] Livefyre * [81]Get Livefyre * [82]FAQ [83]Sign in + Follow Post comment Link Sort: Newest | Oldest RobertSF RobertSF 5pts There's no reason why Myanmar (why does the article use the former name?) should become an economic tiger. Sure, it has millions of low-cost workers, but so what? There's no shortage of low-cost workers in China. China is actually slowing down because Western nations can't continue consuming like they have. Is Myanmar going to get into a labor price war with China? It's welcome to it, but that's not going to bring prosperity. tosty tosty 5pts Burma government first needs to stop killing innocent people of Islamic religion doing terrible crimes that can be called genocide While some leader have the Nobel Peace Prize and called Democrats tosty tosty 5pts Burma government first needs to stop killing innocent people of Islamic religion doing terrible crimes that can be called genocide While some leader have  the Nobel Peace Prize and called Democrats tosty tosty 5pts Burma government first needs to stop killing innocent people of Islamic religion doing terrible crimes that can be called genocide While some leader have the Nobel Peace Prize and called Democrats Pone Z Pyo Pone Z Pyo 5pts come on... drop the lies already. Everyone knows no fact about Rohingya that came out from Pakistan is real. tma_sierrahills tma_sierrahills 5pts One of the central problems of Burma/Myanmar is that no one can agree on what to call it. adam_onge adam_onge 5pts  So just like Finland/Suomi, Germany/Deutschland, Greek/Hellas, Hungary/Magyarorszag, Austria/Ãstereich, China/Zhuongguoa, Japan/Nippon, Spain/Espagne, Ceylon/SriLanka, Rhodesia/Zimbabwe, Switzerland/Schweiz, Sweden/Sverige, ... tma_sierrahills tma_sierrahills 5pts Then it is journalists you will need to talk to, because for several years I have been reading many news accounts that have been including the phrase after Myanmar, "formerly known as Burma." Now they are back to a straightforward use of Burma (which I kind of like). To say that a nation is known by two names, one in its home language and one internationally, or by people in Western nations, versus saying that a nation's official name has been changed by the people in charge are two completely different things. Spain and Espagne/Espana are the same nation. But, as far as I know, Rhodesia no longer exists, and I have to wonder if Zimbabwe does not translate into "Black-on-White-Farmer-Slaughterhouse." Finally, when it is a matter of language, like Spain or Sweden, each nation has far more than two names, since there are about 6,000 languages in the world. rory2012 rory2012 5pts Burma is on the spotlight because the West wants you be there for the time being due to the Chinese factor. Once come to the returns of their investment consideration,you are long way off their target so your poverty will continue.You name will be drawn to attention again whenever the Chinese card played by the West again. omegafrontier omegafrontier 5pts Oh yes, how could Burma not see that Western nations are using them as a satellite state! It fits all together perfectly now. It explains why Burma leadership suddenly and voluntarily open up asking for Western nations partnership. That's why the presence of China in Burma is more than any country in the world. It's a TRAP by Western nations to turn on those poor, misunderstood Chinese communists. Man, can you believe these so ever calculating Western leaders who couldn't fix their debt crises but is able to manipulate a foreign nation against its interests. Ben_300cg Ben_300cg 5pts A very informative article. I hope it touches the heart of potential reformists in Burma and the world. 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Send us your ideas ... (Submit) Edit story (Submit) Make Live (Submit) Depublish [5]Burma A race to reform? Or a race to profit? by Avaaz Team - posted 16 October 2012 17:27 [6]Tweet A Burmese child waits for Aung San Suu Kyi's arrival What does the future hold for the people of Burma? (AFP/Getty) Burma’s transition from international pariah to poster child for democratic change has happened remarkably quickly. Or has it? The US, EU and other world powers have been quick to reward Burma's once-notorious regime for a series of dramatic, positive reforms. Diplomatic channels have been opened up for the first time in decades, many economic sanctions have been lifted and there's been a surge in international investment. But the country’s weak rule of law, rampant corruption and terrible treatment of minority groups are often glazed over in the rush to invest in the "new" Burma. This week, the government [7]barred a global Islamic body from opening an office to help members of Burma's Muslim population, who are suffering from horrifying communal violence in the west of the country. Is Burma at the beginning of a new era of democracy, or have reforms simply given the new government a cover to boost business – and foreign investors a chance to profit? On a path to reform The Burmese regime, aiming to end its global isolation and seeking foreign investment to breathe life into its stagnant economy, has gone to great lengths to prove it is changing. After five decades of military rule and repression, the past eight months have brought dramatic reforms, including the [8]release of 700 political prisoners, the abolishment of a [9]long-standing censorship rule that required all journalists to submit their work for review before publication, and President Thein Sein’s [10]shake-up of his cabinet. In September, as opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi began her [11]first tour of the US since being released from house arrest, and Thein Sein prepared to attend his first UN general assembly in New York, the government pardoned 500 more prisoners. The international response has been swift. In recent months most economic sanctions have been [12]suspended or eased. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have opened offices in Burma, Japan waived $3.7bn in unpaid debt, and a number of countries have announced significant increases in aid. Last month, Aung San Suu Kyi – reportedly under pressure from her government – gave the US the go-ahead to drop its major remaining sanction: a ban on all Burmese imports. It worked. Then, this week, the US [13]sent a delegation of senior military officials to build closer ties with the Burmese military. But who will get rich? The less good news is this. Despite an end to total military rule, much of Burma's [14]population continues to suffer: after decades of isolation, the economy remains one of the [15]least developed in the world, with one-third of its people living below the poverty line. The nation rates second to last (behind North Korea) in healthcare spending per capita and in 2011 it was ranked the [16]fourth most corrupt country in the world by Transparency International. Burma has many natural resources, especially natural gas reserves and gems – making it an [17]appealing trading partner for the west. But until now, the Burmese people have seen almost none of the economic benefits of the country's vast natural wealth. China had been Burma's largest foreign investor to date, but the new government is eager to promote growth (and [18]less reliance on China) by courting other foreign investment. Major corporations are now scrambling to jump on the bandwagon. Just after the US eased sanctions on Burma in June, it brought in a [19]slew of major US companies – Chevron, General Electric (GE), Goldman Sachs and Google, to name a few – to begin exploring investment opportunities. Days later, GE became the first US company to sign a deal, and Coca-Cola and Pepsi have been the latest companies to announce they’ll start doing business in the country. However, the military still controls Burma’s largest companies. So will anyone other than the elite benefit from investment? Battles still being fought For the millions who are from ethnic minorities – hundreds of thousands of whom have been displaced by decades of conflict – the answer seems to be no. They still suffer [20]widespread discrimination, and the regions they live in have been ravaged by conflict. For decades, these groups have been fighting for the political rights they were denied under military rule – and many of those battles continue today. One of these groups is the Rohingya, a persecuted Muslim community that has been stripped of basic human rights and [21]denied Burmese citizenship, despite having lived in the area for more than 150 years. Currently, 800,000 Rohingya Muslims are stateless in the west of the country, where [22]clashes have killed at least 77 people and left 90,000 homeless since June. And this week the government made it quite clear that it didn't intend to change its policies when it [23]prohibited the Organisation of Islamic Conference from opening an office to provide desperately needed help to the Rohingya community. In the north, a 17-year ceasefire collapsed with the ethnic Kachin rebels in 2011. In recent months alone at least 75,000 people have been displaced by fighting; according to human rights groups the Burmese army has been [24]attacking civilian areas and using torture, rape and murder to clamp down on the uprising. Although the government has pledged to resolve the conflict and President Thein Sein reported that "informal consultations" had started again with the Kachin, too little is being done – and vast numbers of [25]people continue to suffer. And in the east, conflict between the Burmese military and the Karen minority has endured for decades. Peace talks earlier this year prompted optimism, but large numbers [26]remain displaced and violence continues today. Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) found that almost one-third of households it surveyed in the area had been subjected to [27]horrific treatment like forced labour, forced displacement or physical attacks in the past year. PHR also found that in areas near development projects, these outrages were much more common – sparking fear that without proper safeguards, an investment gold rush may actually cause minority communities [28]to suffer even more in the future. Take this chance "Before history gets totally rewritten, it’s worth making a couple of points," a [29]Washington Post editorial cautions. "One is that generals and ex-generals still run Burma, as generals have been running Burma for the past half-century. The stirrings of reform that have allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to travel and that prompted the United States to lift pretty much the last of its economic sanctions last week, are only that: stirrings. There is no rule of law, no independent judiciary." This underlines a key reality. Truly positive and long-lasting change won't be achieved until Burma as a whole – including its ethnic minorities – sees the benefits of foreign investment in their daily lives. The country is at a crossroads. Now it's up to rest of the world to act: to urge leaders and companies to act responsibly; and to insist that the easing of sanctions and more investment in Burma must be contingent upon its fair treatment of all its citizens. Until this happens, the big Burma gold rush could hurt more people than it helps. Sources: BBC, Reuters, Avaaz, CNN, Politico, Mizzima, Transparency International, Economist, VOA, Forbes, Nation, Al Jazeera, Irrawaddy, Physicians for Human Rights, Global Post, Washington Post [30]Share on Facebook [31]Twitter [32]Email [33]Google [34]StumbleUpon Please enable JavaScript to view the [35]comments powered by Disqus.[36] blog comments powered by Disqus RELATED[37]Burma RELATED[38]Human rights [39]Thumbnail Thumbnail [40]Riot police break up Burma protest [41]Tear gas and water cannon used on demonstrators objecting to land grab at copper mine ... [42]Thumbnail Thumbnail [43]Oil showdown in the Amazon [44]Ecuador's Kichwa will 'fight to the death' to protect their pristine rainforest home ... [45]Obama’s magical mystery tour [46]The US president is visiting Thailand, Burma and Cambodia. Here are 3 things he must talk about ... [47]Is this what American 'justice' looks like? [48]7 terrible truths about the US prison system ... [49]A problem Burma can't hide [50]Violence against Rohingya Muslims is captured by satellite imagery ... [51]5 shocking facts about America's 'justice' system [52]Obama is sworn in on Martin Luther King Jr day – but how far have we come? ... Hi, . Global: [53]Dashboard – [54]Stats – [55]Settings – [56]Editors [57]Newsletter – [58]URL Front: [59]Storylines – [60]Need to know – [61]Sidebar [62]Featured Headlines – [63]Slideshow – [64]Comments – [65]Lightbox Storylines: [66]Add storyline – [67]All storylines Posts: [68]Add post – [69]All posts – [70]Drafts Blurbs: [71]Create – [72]Translate (Submit) Logout Lets be friends IFRAME: [73]//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Ffacebook.com% 2FAvaaz&send=false&layout=standard&width=220&show_faces=true&action=lik e&colorscheme=light&font&height=80 [74]Follow @Avaaz Get Briefed! Get the best stories and videos in your inbox daily. 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[48]Economy[49]Southeast Asia[50]Burma March 31, 2012 By Rajiv Biswas * [51]Pin It * * [52]Tweet * * * [53]RSS * [54]Email Burma is at a crossroads, politically and economically. Will it become Asia’s new economic tiger or remain isolated from the global economy? Burma: Asia’s Next Tiger Economy? Related Features All eyes are on Burma’s [55]elections on April 1, a test of its commitment to democratic reform. The quicker the government can reform, the quicker the U.S. and EU sanctions might ease and the quicker its growth will accelerate. These are the first elections for more than twenty years to include opposition party the National League for Democracy, led by Aung Sang Suu Kyi. [56]The U.S. has already started restoring full diplomatic relations with Burma, in recognition of its ongoing political reforms. As U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon [57]said last week, Burmais giving “a strong sense of hope and expectation for the international community.” The unleashing of Burma’s economy could boost regional growth and intra-ASEAN trade and investment. As it is, Burma’s GDP growth rate is projected to average around 6 per cent per year until 2020, with GDP doubling to $124 billion by 2020, according to IHS Global Insight forecasts. The domestic consumer market is expected to grow rapidly, creating a fast-growing market for exports of goods and services from other ASEAN countries. Burma’s population is, after all, the fourth largest in ASEAN, at around 50 million people. But the pace of [58]Burma’s economic growth could be even faster if driven by more rapid economic reforms. A key risk to this more rapid growth would be rising inflationary pressures, as rapid growth and investment creates supply bottlenecks and wage pressures. Inflation is already estimated to have averaged around 9 percent in 2011, and is forecast to average around 10 percent in 2012. Burma, like other ASEAN countries, has agreed to the tariff liberalization timetable under the ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement. From an economic perspective, Burma’s economic reforms and tariff liberalization will be important to ASEAN’s objective to create a single market for trade in goods by 2015. Still, there are several important steps ahead for Burma. A key macroeconomic reform will be the planned implementation of a unified exchange rate from April 1, as Burma moves to a managed float that will help to reduce market distortions and boost export competitiveness. Burma’s draft investment bill could accelerate investment, with provisions for a five-year tax holiday for foreign investors, 100 percent profit repatriation allowances, and government guarantees against nationalization.Other key features include foreigners having the right to lease land; foreigners no longer needing a local partner to set up businesses; and joint ventures could be set up with at least 35 percent foreign capital participation. Unskilled labour employed by foreign companies would have to be 100 percent local, while domestic skilled workers would have to make up at least 25 percent of a firm’s operations after the first 5 years, 50 percent after 10 years, and 75 percent after 15 years. The oil and gas resources of Burma have significant potential for future development, with Burma currently producing oil, condensate and natural gas. There’s ongoing exploration and development both onshore and offshore, with both an oil pipeline and a natural gas pipeline currently under construction from Burma’s Arakan coast to southern China at a total cost of $2.5 billion. A number of oil companies from Asian countries are currently exploring for oil and gas in Burma. Recent Burma government estimates of natural gas reserves are 22.5 trillion cubic feet, indicating substantial future development potential. The agricultural sector has considerable potential for further development with the potential for Burma to significantly improve rice export earnings over the medium-term, through agricultural technology such as improving rice yields, better cropping techniques, as well as the impact of market liberalization measures. Tourism flows, meanwhile, have already picked up, while business-related foreign visits have increased sharply due to heightened investor interest. Burma remains heavily dependent on imported manufactures from China, yet economic reforms, rapid growth in domestic demand and increased foreign investment could result in the rapid growth of the low-value added manufacturing sector, helped by relatively low wage costs. Transition towards a more market-driven economy will itself create challenges, as Vietnam and others would no doubt agree. Some of the key challenges facing Burma are the need to improve the business climate, reform the state-owned enterprises, develop the financial sector, and undertake vital corporate governance and anti-corruption initiatives. One of the immediate priorities is the need to accelerate the development of the financial sector, in order to provide intermediation for economic development. This will require significant liberalization of the financial sector, so as to allow foreign financial institutions to rapidly play a role in providing financial services for the economic development of Burma. This goes hand in hand with closer co-operation with the IMF, World Bank and the Asian Development Bank in Burma’s economic development planning, with positive signs already in this area following Burma’s co-operation with the IMF on its [59]exchange rate reform process. [60]Burma’s economy could emerge as the next ASEAN Tiger economy, despite the political and economic challenges, if the Burmese government continues to pursue its reform agenda. This will be a significant positive boost to the ASEAN region and to realizing the long-term objectives of the [61]ASEAN Economic Community. After decades of economic isolation, the reforms being introduced are set to bring significant improvements in the living standards of the people of Burma – the government just needs to make sure it can keep up the rapid pace of reforms that it has embarked upon. Rajiv Biswas is the Asia-Pacific Chief Economist for IHS Global Insight. The macroeconomic data cited here is sourced from research and reports from IHS.com. Photo Credit: [62]Steve Evans Share: + [63]Reddit Reddit + [64]Digg Digg + [65]Stumble Upon StumbleUpon + [66]Delicious Delicious + [67]Add to Technorati Favorites Technorati + [68]Yahoo Buzz Yahoo + [69]Google Buzz Google + [70]Sina + [71]Plurk Plurk [72]Print [73]Email ARTICLE TAGS [74]ASEAN, [75]Burma, [76]Burma Economy, [77]IMF COMMENTS 2 [78]LEAVE A COMMENT 1. Rodney Shipley April 5, 2012 at 8:02 am What is he big deal. I think Apple has bigger numbers than that. Media blows things out of proportion. [79]Reply 2. minanda April 24, 2012 at 12:37 am God Bless You Aung Sang Suu Kyi [80]Reply LEAVE A COMMENT Please note, no comments that include abusive or inflammatory remarks aimed at writers or other commenters will be accepted. 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[17]X [18]Market Snapshot * U.S. * Europe * Asia Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [19]DJIA 13,896.00 +70.65 0.51% [20]S&P 500 1,502.96 +8.14 0.54% [21]Nasdaq 3,149.71 +19.33 0.62% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [22]STOXX 50 2,744.18 +21.22 0.78% [23]FTSE 100 6,284.45 +19.54 0.31% [24]DAX 7,857.97 +109.84 1.42% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [25]Nikkei 10,926.70 +305.78 2.88% [26]Hang Seng 23,580.40 -18.47 -0.08% [27]S&P/ASX 200 4,835.17 +24.95 0.52% [28]Bloomberg * [29]Our Company * [30]Professional * [31]Anywhere Search News, Quotes * [32]Home * [33]Quick * [34]News * [35]Opinion * [36]Market Data * [37]Personal Finance * [38]Tech * [39]Politics * [40]Sustainability * [41]TV * [42]Video * [43]Radio * [44]Apple Expands Audits, Says China Labor Agent Forged Documents [45]Apple Says China Agent Forged Papers for Underage Workers * [46]Climate Hawk Kerry Says He'll Oversee Keystone XL Pipeline [47]Keystone’s Fate Shifts to Climate Hawk Kerry * [48]Billionaire O’Brien Does 10-Hour Davos to Duck ‘Stone of Weight’ [49]Irish Billionaire O’Brien Finds Davos Linger-Free Zone * [50]Solar Costs to Fall as REITs Emerge as Source of Funding [51]Solar Costs to Fall as REITs Emerge as Source of Funding * [52]Washington Bond [53]Hogeland: Founding Fathers Loved the National Debt * [54]Summing Up the Mood at the World Economic Forum 8:40 [55]Summing Up the Mood at the World Economic Forum Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation: Energy By Rakteem Katakey - 2012-09-17T08:25:31Z Myanmar, shunned since the 1990s for tolerating corruption and human trafficking, is set for record foreign investment in 2012 led by [56]oil companies after the southeast Asian nation took its first steps toward democracy. The country plans its biggest auction of exploration blocks for oil and gas by year-end. [57]Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) of India probably will bid, an ONGC executive said in an interview. This month France’s [58]Total SA (FP), one of the few foreign companies that operated under the old dictatorship, said it bought 40 percent of an offshore permit, while Coca-Cola Co. made its first shipment in more than 60 years to Yangon, the biggest city. “Myanmar is very under-explored,” said Managing Director D.K. Sarraf of ONGC Videsh Ltd., the Indian oil company’s overseas unit. “We think there are large reserves of both oil and gas that are yet to be found,” Sarraf said by phone from New Delhi. “We expect intense competition for assets there.” The U.S. dropped economic sanctions in July after elections and other democratic moves, and the International Monetary Fund forecast direct foreign investment into the country formerly known as [59]Burma will rise 40 percent to a record $3.99 billion this year. Natural gas is Myanmar’s biggest revenue earner, and without new discoveries it will struggle to reverse an average 15 percent annual depletion in reserves of the commodity. Cameron Visit President [60]Barack Obama in July authorized U.S. businesses to invest in Myanmar after President Thein Sein started a democratic process that saw opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi elected to parliament following years of house arrest and prompted visits by U.K. Prime Minister [61]David Cameron and India’s [62]Manmohan Singh. The deals carry extra risk for investors in a nation sandwiched between China and India that’s seeking to emerge from 50 years of economic and political isolation. Ranked [63]No. 180 of 183 nations in Transparency International’s 2011 corruption index, Thein Sein’s government will be challenged to find a balance between attracting capital and limiting a flood of money from mostly benefiting an elite. “Companies will be careful before investing because many policies are still very uncertain, and once in place there’s no certainty they won’t change,” Andrew Gilholm, Singapore-based head of Asia analysis at Control Risks, a global business risk consultancy which also advises companies investing in Myanmar, said in an interview in New Delhi Sept. 13. “A stable and secure investment environment is a long-term project.” Disclose Payments Myanmar plans to implement the [64]Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which calls for governments to disclose all payments from oil, gas and mining companies, Industry Minister Soe Thane said June 8. “Pressing the button on transparency will help attract major western companies to invest in Myanmar to a certain degree. It shows the willingness of Myanmar’s authorities to fight widespread corruption and provide much-needed regulatory clarity for foreign investors,” said Siddik Bakir, a London- based energy analyst for the [65]Middle East and South Asia at IHS Energy. “Western oil companies interested in Myanmar’s hydrocarbons industry need safety because they know the risks involved.” With existing drillers Total and competitors such as Thailand’s [66]PTT Exploration & Production Pcl (PTTEP) pumping more gas than they’re discovering, Myanmar’s known [67]reserves dropped an average 15 percent from 2007 to 2011, to 7.8 trillion cubic feet from 21.2 trillion cubic feet, BP Statistical Review 2012 data show. Production declined 8.2 percent to 11.2 million metric tons of oil equivalent in the period, according to the data. Economic Frontier Myanmar, called Asia’s “next economic frontier” by the IMF, is trying to fund the government better by luring companies from [68]BP Plc (BP/) to [69]Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (RDSA) OAO Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas producer, is in discussions with the Myanmar government to [70]participate in energy projects in the country, according to the Moscow-based company’s website, without giving details. Hundreds of foreign investors met in Myanmar’s capital last week as they scout opportunities in the country even as Coca- Cola Co. and MasterCard Inc. increase their presence. Fifteen years ago, companies were rushing out. PepsiCo Inc., under pressure from shareholders and activists to withdraw from Myanmar because of human rights violations there, stopped operations in 1997. Apple Computer Inc., Carlsberg A/S, the Walt Disney Co. and Hewlett-Packard Co. were among companies that also pulled out at that time. Ruby Ban The U.S. banned the import of rubies from Myanmar in 2008 to protest human rights violations. The ban still exists. The southeast Asian nation is potentially the world’s greatest source of high-quality rubies and jadeite jade. “Foreign investment is crucial for Myanmar’s economic growth,” Ba Hla Aya, Charge d’Affaires of the Myanmar embassy in New Delhi, said at a conference in India’s capital city Sept. 13. “But the economy faces challenges in terms of shortage of human resources, lack of efficient services and non-availability of adequate financing facilitates.” He said auctions of exploration blocks this year should rise to a record. Myanmar had its most inclusive elections in two decades on April 1, lawmakers are revamping the financial system and President [71]Thein Sein, who took over from Than Shwe in March 2011, signed a preliminary cease-fire with the country’s largest armed rebel force in a move to end the world’s longest civil war. House Arrest Suu Kyi, who was under house arrest for 15 of the last 20 years before she was elected to parliament in April, said during a visit to Europe in June that “transparency is the key” to attracting investments in the oil and gas sector. She cautioned companies from entering into joint ventures with Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise, the national oil monopoly, which she said lacked transparency. Myanmar was listed last year among nations that do not comply with minimum standards in combating human trafficking in an annual U.S. State Department report along with 22 other countries including North Korea, Iran and Yemen. Tension among its more than 100 ethnic groups “remains a potentially destabilizing factor,” the [72]Asian Development Bank said in an Aug. 20 report. Natural gas exports increased to about $3 billion last year and are set to rise in 2013 as more gas fields and pipelines become operational, according to the Asian Development Bank. [73]Chevron Corp. (CVX), Total and China National Petroleum Corp. are among companies with oil and gas investments in Myanmar. Offshore Project Myanmar is estimated to hold between 11 trillion and 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and currently produces around 19,600 barrels per day of oil and 1.475 billion cubic feet (41.77 million cubic meters) per day of gas, IHS Energy’s Bakir said. Output may rise by 300 million cubic feet a day next year when PTT Exploration & Production starts the offshore Zawtika project. Projects operated by South Korea’s Daewoo International Corp. in the Rakhine Basin may add 500 million cubic feet a day at a peak rate, he said. The economy may expand 6 percent this year from 5.5 percent in 2011, the IMF said in its April 2012 World Economic Outlook Report. That compares with 4.4 percent in [74]Malaysia, 5.6 percent growth in [75]Vietnam and 6.1 in [76]Indonesia. China’s is projected to expand 8.2 percent this year, according to IMF. Myanmar was under military rule for about five decades until President Thein Sein took office last year. The dictatorship led to economic sanctions by the U.S. and the European Union. This resulted in economies including [77]Singapore and Thailand outpacing Myanmar, which became Southeast Asia’s poorest nation. In 2011, the [78]gross domestic product of Myanmar, with a population of 62 million, was $54.8 billion, while Singapore with 5.2 million people had $180 billion. Back in 1969 Myanmar’s GDP was about $6 billion, compared with $8.8 billion for Singapore, according to [79]World Bank and [80]International Monetary Fund data. Backtracking on Democracy President Thein Sein’s attempt to open the economy to foreign investments is not the first time Myanmar’s leadership has taken steps toward restoring a democracy only to backtrack. The junta released Suu Kyi from house arrest in May 2002, prompting the UN to call it a “major development” toward national reconciliation. By June 2003, Suu Kyi was back in detention. In September, Thein Sein halted work on the $3.6 billion Myitsone hydropower dam across the Irrawaddy being built with China Power Investment Corp., saying the project was against the will of the people. “The Myanmar government is genuinely keen to carry out the reform and opening-up process the right way,” Gilholm of Control Risks said. “They want top energy companies to come in with their technology and expertise, not only to explore and exploit resources but also to pass on best practice know-how.” To contact the reporter on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at [81]rkatakey@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jason Rogers at [82]jrogers73@bloomberg.net [83]Enlarge image Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation Myanmar Gets Record Investment After Years of Isolation Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg OAO Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas producer, is in discussions with the Myanmar government to participate in energy projects in the country, according to the Moscow-based company’s website, without giving details. OAO Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas producer, is in discussions with the Myanmar government to participate in energy projects in the country, according to the Moscow-based company’s website, without giving details. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg More News: * [84]Asia · * [85]China · * [86]India & Pakistan · * [87]Commodities · * [88]Emerging Markets · * [89]Energy Markets · * [90]Energy Industry * [91]Facebook Share * * [92]LinkedIn * [93]Google +1 * [94]COMMENTS * * [95]Print * QUEUE Bloomberg moderates all comments. Comments that are abusive or off-topic will not be posted to the site. Excessively long comments may be moderated as well. Bloomberg cannot facilitate requests to remove comments or explain individual moderation decisions. Please enable JavaScript to view the [96]comments powered by Disqus. 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[17]X [18]Market Snapshot * U.S. * Europe * Asia Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [19]DJIA 13,896.00 +70.65 0.51% [20]S&P 500 1,502.96 +8.14 0.54% [21]Nasdaq 3,149.71 +19.33 0.62% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [22]STOXX 50 2,744.18 +21.22 0.78% [23]FTSE 100 6,284.45 +19.54 0.31% [24]DAX 7,857.97 +109.84 1.42% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [25]Nikkei 10,926.70 +305.78 2.88% [26]Hang Seng 23,580.40 -18.47 -0.08% [27]S&P/ASX 200 4,835.17 +24.95 0.52% [28]Bloomberg * [29]Our Company * [30]Professional * [31]Anywhere Search News, Quotes * [32]Home * [33]Quick * [34]News * [35]Opinion * [36]Market Data * [37]Personal Finance * [38]Tech * [39]Politics * [40]Sustainability * [41]TV * [42]Video * [43]Radio * [44]Apple Expands Audits, Says China Labor Agent Forged Documents [45]Apple Says China Agent Forged Papers for Underage Workers * [46]Climate Hawk Kerry Says He'll Oversee Keystone XL Pipeline [47]Keystone’s Fate Shifts to Climate Hawk Kerry * [48]Billionaire O’Brien Does 10-Hour Davos to Duck ‘Stone of Weight’ [49]Irish Billionaire O’Brien Finds Davos Linger-Free Zone * [50]Solar Costs to Fall as REITs Emerge as Source of Funding [51]Solar Costs to Fall as REITs Emerge as Source of Funding * [52]Washington Bond [53]Hogeland: Founding Fathers Loved the National Debt * [54]Summing Up the Mood at the World Economic Forum 8:40 [55]Summing Up the Mood at the World Economic Forum Myanmar’s Suu Kyi Calls on U.S. to Heed More Than Economy By Nicole Gaouette - 2012-09-19T00:00:00Z Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said she was open to a U.S. relaxation of economic sanctions on her country, even as she urged American leaders to focus on more than its economy alone. “I do support the easing of sanctions because I think that our people must start taking responsibility for their own destiny,” Suu Kyi said at an event at the U.S. Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan policy group in [56]Washington funded by Congress. “I do not think we should depend on the U.S. sanctions to keep up the momentum of our movement toward democracy. We’ve got to work at it ourselves.” The political dissident and democracy activist said she is in the U.S. for the first time in about 40 years, a visit that would have been unthinkable as little as two years ago when she remained under house arrest. She is now a member of parliament. She met with Secretary of State [57]Hillary Clinton at the State Department yesterday and will see lawmakers, activists and officials while in Washington. Suu Kyi asked U.S. leaders not to focus on Myanmar’s economy to the exclusion of other issues, such as the rule of law and democratic progress. In July, State Department officials led the highest-level economic and commercial delegation to Myanmar, also known as Burma, in more than 25 years. They also took part in a business delegation that included more than 70 executives from 35 companies. “While the [58]United States seems to be concentrating a lot on the economic aspect of its relations with my country,” Suu Kyi said, “I hope they will do this in full awareness of the need to promote rule of law and to help the president and his executive to carry out the reforms they have in mind.” Rule of Law She cautioned that unless there is the rule of law and a functioning judicial system to enforce it, companies coming to Myanmar won’t have “either security or the freedom necessary for them to operate effectively in our country.” Suzanne Nossel, Amnesty International USA’s executive director, said while what is happening is “not a complete turnaround or the dawn of democracy and human rights in [59]Burma, it’s a very important beginning.” Issues such as child labor, forced labor, political prisoners and ethnic conflict must be dealt with, she said in a telephone interview. Clinton said that in addition to appointing an ambassador and lifting sanctions on Myanmar, the U.S. had let companies invest in the country and was ensuring that happened in a way “that advances rather than undermines continued reforms.” Nossel said that “what’s crucial is that the companies that enter Burma take seriously their human-rights obligations that are spelled out in international law and end up being a force for good.” ‘Real Risk’ She said that is important “because there’s a very real risk if they put profits ahead of people they’ll end up exacerbating a very precarious climate in terms of rights, rather than helping to accelerate the progress.” Clinton didn’t discuss the prospect of a further easing of sanctions. State Department spokesman [60]Victoria Nuland told reporters yesterday that she wasn’t “in a position to predict whether we’re going to take any new steps on Burma this week or next.” She said the U.S. expects the country’s president, [61]Thein Sein, to visit [62]New York next week for the [63]United Nations General Assembly. Both Suu Kyi and Clinton warned against complacency about Myanmar’s move toward democracy, even with positive signs such as the release of political prisoners Sept. 17. Suu Kyi said yesterday that of the approximately 500 people released, about 200 were political prisoners. Avoiding ‘Backsliding’ There is a need to “guard against backsliding, because there are forces that would take the country in the wrong direction if given the chance,” Clinton said as she introduced Suu Kyi to the crowd at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Clinton touched on other signs of progress, including fragile ceasefires in some long-running internal conflicts, the creation of an opposition and an easing of restrictions on the media. She also underscored the need for more work. She mentioned the need to release more political prisoners, reduce ethnic violence that undermines internal stability, amend the constitution, increase transparency, strengthen the rule of law and curtail contacts with [64]North Korea. “The State Department and the Obama administration are certainly the first to say the process of political reform must continue,” Clinton said. Using the country’s name at independence, which is official administration policy, Clinton said “the United States is committed to standing with the people of Burma to support this progress that has begun, but that is still a work in progress.” Today, Suu Kyi will meet lawmakers at the Capitol and receive the Congressional Gold Medal, the legislative body’s highest award. To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Washington at [65]ngaouette@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at [66]jwalcott9@bloomberg.net More News: * [67]Economy · * [68]Asia · * [69]Japan · * [70]U.S. · * [71]Currencies · * [72]Emerging Markets * [73]Facebook Share * * [74]LinkedIn * [75]Google +1 * [76]COMMENTS * * [77]Print * QUEUE Bloomberg moderates all comments. Comments that are abusive or off-topic will not be posted to the site. Excessively long comments may be moderated as well. Bloomberg cannot facilitate requests to remove comments or explain individual moderation decisions. Please enable JavaScript to view the [78]comments powered by Disqus. 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[17]X [18]Market Snapshot * U.S. * Europe * Asia Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [19]DJIA 13,896.00 +70.65 0.51% [20]S&P 500 1,502.96 +8.14 0.54% [21]Nasdaq 3,149.71 +19.33 0.62% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [22]STOXX 50 2,744.18 +21.22 0.78% [23]FTSE 100 6,284.45 +19.54 0.31% [24]DAX 7,857.97 +109.84 1.42% Ticker Volume Price Price Delta [25]Nikkei 10,926.70 +305.78 2.88% [26]Hang Seng 23,580.40 -18.47 -0.08% [27]S&P/ASX 200 4,835.17 +24.95 0.52% [28]Bloomberg [29]View * [30]Our Company * [31]Professional * [32]Anywhere Search News, Quotes * [33]Home * [34]Quick * [35]News * [36]Opinion * [37]Market Data * [38]Personal Finance * [39]Tech * [40]Politics * [41]Sustainability * [42]TV * [43]Video * [44]Radio < * [45]Jonathan Weil [46]Jonathan Weil [47]Wrong Way to Admit You Blew Millions of Dollars * [48]Josh Barro [49]Josh Barro [50]Binyamin Romney? * [51]I_gbdgrwfvhk Samir Radwan [52]On Anniversary, Egypt Needs Economic Miracle * [53]William Pesek [54]William Pesek [55]Paul Krugman’s Worn-Out Ideas for Japan * [56]I1iokpkdl8xm [57]Editorials [58]Egypt’s Transition Needs Some Quiet U.S. Help * [59]Stephen Carter [60]Stephen L. Carter [61]The Sad State of Our Science, and How to Fix It > Updated Facebook Page Serves as Leading Indicator By [62]William Pesek 2012-09-24T21:00:20Z You could say that Myanmar won over [63]Kevin Murphy at “min-ga-la-ba,” or “hello” in Burmese. The American first came to this isolated land in the 1980s as a student and returned in the 1990s as a journalist. In 2002, he came back again -- this time for good and as an investor. “You can say I was hooked early on,” Murphy, 51, said in Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, recently. “It’s nice to see the rest of the world catching on.” And how. [64]EuroMoney’s debut event in the nation that Rudyard Kipling once called “quite unlike any place you know about” attracted almost 900 participants. It was the largest influx of foreign investors Myanmar’s 55 million people have ever seen. More than 100 years later, Kipling is still right about Myanmar, formerly known as [65]Burma, being a world apart. Bankers visiting for the first time assumed travel agents were exaggerating about BlackBerrys and smart phones not working (they really don’t). They dismissed warnings that credit cards aren’t accepted, even at five-star hotels. All that blather about banks and merchants only taking pristine $100 bills (the slightest crease or fold and you’re toast) seemed overdone, until you found your wad of cash worthless and wondering how to pay for dinner. No, Myanmar isn’t easy. Unlike China On the bright side, Twitter works fine in a place that just a year ago was both a pariah and police state, a contrast with, say, [66]China. You can update your Facebook page anytime you can find a WiFi signal, again something you can’t do in China. I was able to view YouTube clips of the violent 2007 crackdown on protesters by the military junta that ran the place before President [67]Thein Sein unleashed reforms that took the world by surprise. Try typing “Tiananmen Square massacre” into search fields while visiting China. You are routed to tourism sites. “What the world must understand is Myanmar’s opening is real and irreversible,” said Murphy, a managing director at [68]Andaman Capital Partners Ltd. in Yangon, also known as Rangoon. “Really, take it from someone who has been here through previous moments of hope that change was happening. It shouldn’t be doubted.” The China comparison is worth exploring further. China opened its economy without corresponding reforms to its political system. It retains an iron grip on freedom of speech, the press and the political narrative. Myanmar is doing the opposite: It’s opening socially and politically before it even has an economy of which to speak. That is creating higher expectations than many Chinese have of their leaders. Inclusive Growth Burmese tycoon Serge Pun put it well: “A year ago, our people were afraid of the government; now the government is afraid of the people. If our leaders don’t deliver, and soon, with inclusive growth, things will get difficult and they know it.” Myanmar’s challenges are daunting. There are huge question marks about the role and influence of the military. What if, skeptics ask, the military fails to respect a victory by [69]Aung San Suu Kyi’s party in the next election in 2015? Confusion reigns over a recently passed investment law. How much access will foreigners really have to Myanmar’s natural resources? Too little? Too much? Ethnic conflict is another challenge. Those in the West who idolize Suu Kyi might be surprised to know her reputation at home is more mixed. Her silent treatment of the minority Rohingya Muslims irks human-rights groups and is a blemish on her status as a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Chinese Pressures Myanmar is already facing pressures that China didn’t until recently. The widening gap between rich and poor is a source of growing friction among China’s 1.3 billion people. Discontent is rising amid reports of the obscene wealth being amassed by members of a ruling party that is communist in name only. Since Myanmar won’t have the luxury of ignoring these risks, its development may go smoother than, say, [70]Vietnam’s, which investors often compare with Myanmar. Vietnam is seen as a prisoner to pendulum economics: Investor sentiment swings from heady optimism to dark pessimism. Vietnam hasn’t built the institutions or found the right regulatory structure to shield itself from the whims of hot money. So, last month when police arrested banking mogul Nguyen Duc Kien on vague charges that many feared smacked of politics, local markets tumbled. When the plight of one man imperils your economy, you have serious problems. Myanmar can avoid these boom-bust cycles by getting the basics right today. That means telling investors clamoring to cash in on one of [71]Asia’s last frontier markets to take a deep breath and be patient. Myanmar must craft investment laws that benefit the broader population. “The issue is building blocks,” said Irish entrepreneur [72]Denis O’Brien, the founder and chairman of Digicel Group, a mobile-phone-network operator. “It’s important for an economy to be able to walk before it can run.” Myanmar probably doesn’t aspire to become one of the Asian “tiger” economies -- it wants to be its own. With any luck, Kipling will still be right about the place a century from now. (William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer of this article: William Pesek in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, at [73]wpesek@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this article: James Greiff at [74]jgreiff@bloomberg.net William Pesek About [75]William Pesek» William Pesek is based in Tokyo and writes on economics, markets and politics throughout the Asia-Pacific region. ... [76]MORE [77]FOLLOW ON TWITTER More from William Pesek: * [78]Paul Krugman’s Worn-Out Ideas for Japan * [79]‘Strong Dollar’ Is Lie Told in New Currency War * [80]Bank of Japan Needs a Fresh Eye * [81]Facebook Share * [82]Tweet * [83]LinkedIn * [84]Google +1 * [85]COMMENTS * * [86]Print * QUEUE Bloomberg moderates all comments. Comments that are abusive or off-topic will not be posted to the site. Excessively long comments may be moderated as well. Bloomberg cannot facilitate requests to remove comments or explain individual moderation decisions. Please enable JavaScript to view the [87]comments powered by Disqus. 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Carter [61]The Sad State of Our Science, and How to Fix It > Nobel Prize Winner Teaches Economics to Laureate Illustration by Brendan Monroe Nobel Prize Winner Teaches Economics to Laureate By [62]William Pesek 2012-10-01T21:00:57Z Of all the tantalizing about-faces in Myanmar, the economic education of Aung San Suu Kyi may be the most important. In June, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning dissident shocked many on her first overseas trip after 23 years under house arrest. Suu Kyi warned investors about “reckless optimism” and the pitfalls her country holds for markets. Such comments upset Myanmar’s leaders and unnerved another Nobel laureate: economist Joseph Stiglitz, a Myanmar government adviser, who said she was being too pessimistic. On her 17-day tour of the U.S., though, Suu Kyi is striking a rather different tone and supporting President Thein Sein’s reforms. Suu Kyi is playing coy about her sudden conversion, so let me offer my own theory. After careful thought and analysis, Suu Kyi realizes what Myanmar has on its hands: Mikhail Gorbachev. It is early days for Myanmar’s version of perestroika, or restructuring, that Gorbachev unleashed in the Soviet Union in the 1980s. There is much to be done to bring Myanmar, formerly known as [63]Burma, out from behind its own Iron Curtain, and lots might go wrong. Not the least of which is a giant military- industrial complex looking over Thein Sein’s shoulder as he dismantles its reason for being and welcomes the unpredictable forces of democracy. Suu Kyi’s Gorbachev Suu Kyi now realizes what she may have in Thein Sein. He could be that rarest of authoritarian leaders who selflessly works to propel his people higher without clinging to power indefinitely and then, Gorbachev-style, steps aside. Ahead of the 2015 election, Thein Sein’s agenda includes starting to build an economy from scratch; keeping foreign mining companies from raping his nation; managing Myanmar’s role as mediator among [64]China, [65]Japan and the U.S. in Asia; and tweaking the constitution so that Suu Kyi’s party can even run. Why would someone likely to succeed Thein Sein three years from now want to get in his way? This is where Suu Kyi’s sudden affection for Thein Sein’s handiwork might come from. Let Thein Sein tend to the political hardware -- a credible parliament, an independent judiciary and central bank, a trusted financial system, fighting corruption, taking Myanmar’s human-rights record into the 21st century. Meanwhile, Suu Kyi can focus on the software -- the aspirations of Myanmar’s people. Whether Suu Kyi gets to fulfill her destiny of leading Myanmar depends on the foundations being built today. Burmese should be proud that their peaceful transition to democracy stands in contrast to bloody uprisings in the Arab world that felled authoritarian rulers in [66]Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. And let’s not forget how much political courage it took for Thein Sein to hold talks with Suu Kyi. It requires bravery, too, to allow oneself to be eclipsed by a global celebrity who was portrayed by Michelle Yeoh in a Luc Besson film, “The Lady.” If Thein Sein was annoyed about being ignored by the paparazzi at the United Nations last week, he isn’t letting on. Thein Sein’s audience is much fickler than that of Suu Kyi, who somehow gets a pass on ignoring the plight of Myanmar’s minority Rohingya Muslims. His involves stern-faced trade officials in [67]Washington and Geneva and ambitious generals at home. It also includes the likes of Alisher Ali and Kenneth Stevens, who personify the breed of investor arriving in Yangon. Frontier Market Hailing from the former Soviet Union, Ali, the chairman of Silk Road Finance, has a passion for investing in frontier markets, such as Mongolia. Ali has since set his sights on Myanmar. Earlier this year, he moved his wife and four children to Yangon, formerly known as Rangoon. “You can just feel the energy here,” Ali says. Adds Stevens, an American who runs Leopard Capital: “It’s hard to not be optimistic about Myanmar’s future. Let’s hope it stays on this path.” This last part of Stevens’s comment is important. If foreign investors even begin to sense Myanmar’s restructuring is petering out or proving hollow, they will flee and take the jobs their money creates elsewhere. Thein Sein must craft the best investment law he can to ensure stability and prosperity at home and win the esteem of people like Stiglitz. Suu Kyi is an icon -- a human treasure whose radiant smile melts the vilest dictators. Thein Sein lacks such charisma, and the global media have a knack of pushing him to the periphery. Yet Suu Kyi’s place in history depends on the success of Thein Sein policies now being fashioned out of the limelight. Those who romanticize Suu Kyi often come back to a 1990 speech in which she said: “It’s not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it, and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it.” Suu Kyi may have found the exception to her famous dictum - - her very own Gorbachev. (William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Read more opinion online from [68]Bloomberg View. Subscribe to receive a [69]daily e-mail highlighting new View editorials, columns and op-ed articles. To contact the writer of this article: William Pesek in Yangon, Myanmar, at [70]wpesek@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this article: James Greiff at [71]jgreiff@bloomberg.net William Pesek About [72]William Pesek» William Pesek is based in Tokyo and writes on economics, markets and politics throughout the Asia-Pacific region. ... [73]MORE [74]FOLLOW ON TWITTER More from William Pesek: * [75]Paul Krugman’s Worn-Out Ideas for Japan * [76]‘Strong Dollar’ Is Lie Told in New Currency War * [77]Bank of Japan Needs a Fresh Eye * [78]Facebook Share * [79]Tweet * [80]LinkedIn * [81]Google +1 * [82]COMMENTS * * [83]Print * QUEUE Bloomberg moderates all comments. Comments that are abusive or off-topic will not be posted to the site. Excessively long comments may be moderated as well. Bloomberg cannot facilitate requests to remove comments or explain individual moderation decisions. Please enable JavaScript to view the [84]comments powered by Disqus. 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file://localhost/podcasts/surveillance/ 335. file://localhost/podcasts/taking-stock/ 336. file://localhost/podcasts/ #[1]RSS 2.0 [2]RSS .92 [3]Atom 0.3 [4]Democratic Voice of Burma » New investments and unresolved conflicts Comments Feed [5]Democratic Voice of Burma [6]Junta’s abuse: a key obstacle to reconciliation [7]KNU leader buried in Karen state [8]‘Living in fear’ in Arakan state * [9]Home * [10]News + [11]Economics + [12]Environment + [13]Health + [14]Media + [15]Politics * [16]Opinion & Analysis * [17]Interview * [18]Photos * [19]DVB TV [20][burmese-lang.png] Burmese Language ____________________ Saturday, 26 January 2013 [21]Subscribe to our Feed[22] rss feed [23]Facebook Page [24]Twitter Page [25][banner-nuclear-ambitions.gif] [26][banner-freevj.png] * * [27][nav-WatchDVBLive.gif] [28][nav-YV.gif] [nav-footer.png] New investments and unresolved conflicts [29]Share [30]Comments (5) IFRAME: [31]http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://www.dvb.no/ana lysis/new-investments-and-unresolved-conflicts/24328&layout=button_coun t&show_faces=true&width=100&action=like&colorscheme=light&height=21 [32]Tweet By ANDREA GITTLEMAN Published: 19 October 2012 A worker walks in front of shipping containers at Yangon's port A worker walks in front of shipping containers at Yangon's port on 8 April 2012. (Reuters) Over the past two years, some people in Burma have experienced some remarkable changes. The government of Burma has released political prisoners made moves toward greater political freedom, and loosened strict media controls. But people in Burma have also witnessed continuing crimes by the military, ongoing conflict in Kachin state, and violent ethnic clashes in Rakhine [Arakan] state. Other countries, including some that for years had supported democracy activists and human rights defenders in Burma, began shifting their policies toward engagement with the Burmese authorities in an effort to tip the internal balance toward those in government who wanted more reforms. This precise moment in Burma’s path from military dictatorship to a future healthy democracy presents a key opportunity for leaders in the US and elsewhere to make sure that any changes benefit all people of Burma. Governments that wish to engage with the Burmese government should make sure that their actions support substantive reforms so that any changes are more than just a veneer that obscures the ongoing oppression of ethnic minority groups. Many countries have reacted to the recent changes in Burma by lifting longstanding sanctions, ushering in a new era of investment in the country. In the US, for example, the Obama Administration is in the process of removing its sanctions regime, thereby shelving most of its tools to press Burma’s government for further reforms. The administration has lifted the investment ban, is in the process of ending the import ban, and has announced the end of a restriction on international financial institutions’ lending to Burma. These actions mark a significant shift from decades of sanctions to a new era of engagement. Many people and institutions stand to gain from the lifting of sanctions. The cronies of the Burmese government would be the primary beneficiaries, since they are well-positioned to reap the benefits of any influx of new business. In the past, companies partnered with allies of the regime, and became complicit in human rights violations, including rampant forced labour and forced displacement. Given insufficient corporate regulation by the US and other governments, those allied with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will be able to line their pockets with the incoming foreign investment. Contrast that windfall with the potential harm to ethnic communities, which have long suffered abuse and discrimination under Burma’s military. Many hotspots of foreign investment likely will be in the oil, gas, and mining industries, and some ethnic minority areas are rich in such natural resources. While foreign investment can indeed lead to better jobs for those living near investment projects, Burma’s ethnic minority communities have told a different story. A recent [33]report from Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) documenting human rights violations in Karen state found a correlation between foreign investment projects and human rights abuse. “For too many communities, foreign investment means abuse.” In fact, families living near a development project (in this case, the Dawei deep sea port) were eight times more likely to report a human rights violation than families living elsewhere. This report built upon previous [34]research in Burma that documented systematic attacks on health care and a denial of access to treatment as a way to control the population. For too many communities, foreign investment means abuse. Given the blanket impunity with which the Burmese military has abused members of ethnic minority groups, representatives of ethnic communities are understandably wary of any new investment without proper safeguards to ensure that economic development projects will not negatively affect the people around them. Reforms in Burma must include more than political openness and improved economic relations with other countries. In order to truly turn the page on a long history of brutal attacks on ethnic minority communities, the government of Burma will need to grapple with its troubled past and hold any perpetrators accountable for their crimes. Burmese authorities will also need to make a concerted effort to improve access to health care, education, and dispute resolution mechanisms in rural Burma. These necessary institutional changes will allow the recent openness in Burma to reach all parts of the country. Other countries also have work to do. The US should ensure that its regulations on companies investing in Burma are strict and enforceable. Any US company found to be complicit in human rights violations should face accountability measures at home. The US should also immediately revise its Specially Designated Nationals list so that companies have an updated and comprehensive list of people with whom they cannot do business. Such safeguards can help Burma’s ethnic minority communities emerge from decades of violence and oppression to enjoy the benefits of the country’s steps to rejoin the international community. -Andrea Gittleman is Senior Legislative Counsel for Physicians for Human Rights in Washington, DC. -The opinions and views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect DVB’s editorial policy. Tags: [35]Barack Obama, [36]ceasefires, [37]conflicts, [38]ethnic minorities, [39]investment, [40]sanctions, [41]united states Author: [42]ANDREA GITTLEMAN Category: [43]Analysis __________________________________________________________________ Comments 1. Ohn says: [44]October 21, 2012 at 3:35 am “….the government of Burma will need to grapple with its troubled past and hold any perpetrators accountable for their crimes.” Tall order. The government is the one perpetrating these crimes. So no recourse! Especially when much anticipated “people’s Champion” is also shown to be thoroughly, most definitely and definitively on the side of the “Government” which is the military in sheep clothes, soft looking enough to get approval at the share holders’ meetings of the companies which want to come in to take advantage of the land, underground, sea and slave labour. Those killing/ torturing/ looting/ burning/ displacing. It will stop only if they all die. Wait for Aung San Suu Kyi? Hmmm…. 2. John says: [45]October 24, 2012 at 4:33 pm The insurgents have committed as many crimes as the military. In fact, the insurgents continue in their efforts, supported by the exiles who have poured millions of dollars into undermining the government. The problem is that they have lost their investment. They are left out of the new Myanmar and the power & wealth that they have sought since 1988. Because they’ve got so much at stake, peace and harmony do not seem to be in Myanmar’s future regardless of the reforms that are taken. 3. Ohn says: [46]October 27, 2012 at 12:38 am “The insurgents have committed as many crimes as the military.” With any intention, this is not a cruelty/ devastation/ inhumane acts competition for Mother Teresa Prize. It is not kosher to do just a bit less than what the other might do or have done so that you are in the right. Funding are most likely by selling the jade, forest products and drugs to the Chinese. Jade Bourses are in Hong Kong. That alone takes away hundreds of millions of public money if jade is properly sold with proper taxes given to the public, as in Utopia. Unlike Tamil diaspora who did fund LTTE substantially over decades, Burmese/ Kachin diaspora are not that well endowed/ inclined or organised. Now the country is up for sale,IMF, ADB and direct foreign input or input via goody two shoes Norwegians will enrich endless streams of military brass, their backers, and similar status people in all other armed armed groups. Hence the hyper-lauded and globally approved- “Peace Deals”. It is indeed “Piece Deals”, which piece for whom, via Aung Min, the cheesy, grinning dalan. KIA leadership has indeed looted, cheated,and stolen public property and bought companies, houses in Mandalay, Rangoon, money in the banks, etc. But that is not the issue here. Issue is Than Shwe/ Tin Aung Myint Oo deal with Chinese selling out the country, as if they own it, to build pipes,rails, roads, and the dams and dams and dams to destroy pristine natural land and rivers. The low land ignorant Burmese seem to agree with such or any plan to get any money or that sacred “electricity’in petty minded “smart” moves. But the land to be flooded or destroyed is sacred to Kachin common people. Now clumsy, ineffectual and incompetent military rumblings of Min Aung Hlaing has acted as best recruitment drive for KIA. What with well documented and publicised and visible torture, rape, murder, looting,burning- phyut-lay-phyut and generally abhorrent behaviour of the Bamar Sit-tut. 4. Ohn says: [47]October 27, 2012 at 12:44 am So even if the the whole KIA top brass wants to sell out the their people like the other armed groups are currently doing dealing with the devil, the people are not going to lie down and take it. Too much blood spill and hurt has been done. By the Bamar sit-tut. 5. Fact 2 says: [48]October 29, 2012 at 4:41 am The root cause of Burma’s problems are colonialism and divide-and-rule – by the English. Don’t try to twist it. It it not Bamars because the whole country was known as Bamarpyi, derived from Brahmah. Nothing to do with the bamar majority. So much ignornace of ancient and modern history of Burma. there never were ‘States’. Burma was a unitary kingdom, labeit ruled by different dynasties – just like everywhere else where there was a monarchy. Shans, Bamars and Mons have been integrated for centuries sharing common culture and religion Buddhism. Burma was and still is a country of many tribes,all free to travel and trade all those monarchical centuries; Burma was a kleidoscope of colourful tribes. it was the duty of every king to maintain peace and freedom of all people of Burma. There never was any persecution. Yes, some shans trades Kayins as slaves but the practice was stopped by the monarchical system. Never forget the eseence of Burmese Buddhist kingship. Straightne the kinks in your twisted minds. Burma should have county system rather than so-called states. USA started with 13 English colonies. Burma started as a monarchy 3000 years ago at Tagaung. Bamarasa Tagaungga is the common saying. [49]Click here to cancel reply. __________________________________________________________________ Name (required) ________________ Email Address (required) ________________ Website (optional) ________________ Comment ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ Please note: Comment moderation is enabled and may delay your comment. There is no need to resubmit your comment. 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Review our [99]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [100]cookies information for more details [101]Banyan Asia * [102]Previous * [103]Next * [104]Latest Banyan * [105]Latest from all our blogs Myanmar's opposition Aung San Suu Kyi (virtually) at Davos Jan 31st 2011, 15:40 by R.C. | SINGAPORE * * [106]Tweet IFRAME: [107]http://www.youtube.com/embed/TO5uUedqxJk UNABLE to come herself last week to the annual world business leaders' knees-up at Davos in Switzerland, Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar's democracy movement, got to address the assembled grandees by audio link instead (or read [108]the text here). The timing, on Friday January 28th, was significant. It might have been Davos week, but it was also just a few days before [109]the opening of Myanmar's first parliament in the country's new purpose-built capital, Naypyidaw. The country's military rulers would have people believe that the new parliament, along with November's general elections—not to mention the release of Miss Suu Kyi herself from house arrest—all signify a democratic transition under way. Miss Suu Kyi, however, mentioned none of the above to her Davos audience. Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), believes that the whole show is a sham, designed to curry support for a repressive military regime that in fact has no intention of fundamentally changing its ways. Indeed, as if to prove the point, that very same day, on January 28th, Myanmar's highest court threw out an appeal against the government's dissolution of the NLD as a political party. The NLD had been banned for refusing to take part in what it regarded as the fraudulent elections in November. Instead, Miss Suu Kyi's remarks dwelt on the economic hardships that her people have been experiencing, and her own sense of isolation during her years under house arrest. She pointed out how far Myanmar has fallen behind other countries, and how economic integration with the rest of the world is now necessary. Before the junta, when the independent country was still called Burma, its prospects for trade and prosperity looked as rich as any in South-East Asia. Intriguingly, Miss Suu Kyi asked for more investment in technology and infrastructure, but said that investors “should pay close attention to the costs and collateral damage of our development, whether environmental or social.” Furthermore, she urged “those who have invested or who are thinking of investing in Burma to put a premium on respect for law, on environmental and social factors, on the rights of workers, on job creation and on the promotion of technological skills.” There is a very lively debate going on among pro-democracy activists as to whether it is yet time to call for the end of sanctions by Western countries; but I don't think these comments of Miss Suu Kyi's were aimed at the foreign governments. Rather, I think she was speaking to Chinese, Thai and other Asian investors who are coming in and, by all accounts, doing great damage to many of Myanmar's minority communities and to its environmental resources—[110]the Chinese in particular. I don't expect Miss Suu Kyi's appeals to change things very much, but I hope it focuses fresh attention on the misdeeds of those investors who are already operating in Myanmar. [111]Previous Private property in China: Redevelopment with a human face? [112]Next China, India and the Karmapa Lama: The Karmapa's comeuppance? * [113]Recommend 171 * * [114]Tweet * [115]Submit to reddit * * [116]View all comments (9)[117]Add your comment Related items TOPIC: [118]National League for Democracy » * [119]Studies in Naypyidology: How the other 43 live * [120]Myanmar’s parliament: Power grab * [121]Banyan: The idea of Myanmar TOPIC: [122]Davos » * [123]Schumpeter: The summer Davos blues * [124]Competitiveness: The wealth of nations * [125]Daily chart: Competitive advantages TOPIC: [126]Government and politics » * [127]The fiscal cliff: Chasing trophies * [128]Congo's rebels: Retreat, not defeat * [129]Bond markets: Blessed are the governments TOPIC: [130]Politics » * [131]Hawaiian Airlines: The growing Hawaiian empire * [132]Public appearances: Fancy dress * [133]Money talks: Uncertainty returns: December 10th 2012 More related topics: * [134]Myanmar * [135]World politics * [136]Asia-Pacific politics Readers' comments The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. [137]Review our comments policy. * Add a comment (up to 5,000 characters): ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ Post Sort: * Newest first * [138]Oldest first * [139]Readers' most recommended [140]tocharian Feb 2nd 2011 6:12 GMT I am grateful for being reminded that China is not only building sea-ports, airports dams, railways, roads (rebuilding the Burma Ledo road for example), but they actually built the capital Naypyidaw. Than Shwe is surely in enormous debt and deeply grateful to the Chinese. I also gratefully acknowledge that there are not only many Chinese but also many Indians (millions?) living in Burma. Such a generous country full of hospitality towards foreigners! Perhaps that is the true reason that they even "tolerate" a "colonial elite" like Suu Kyi who as someone said "should be sent back to England". As a dumb Burmese I better learn how to be thankful for all the things I can learn from the other wiser commentators. * [141]Recommend 17 * [142]Report * [143]Permalink * [144]reply [145]nkab Feb 2nd 2011 4:58 GMT @tocharian wrote: Feb 1st 2011 11:47 GMT “The Burmese government should also let all the recent Chinese immigrant businessmen, who are exploiting and pillaging the country (and buying Burmese brides) return to Zhong Guo where they belong with their families.” ----------------------- Be real at least if you are incapable of being grateful. What have you got left in Myanmar modernization had they doing that? Even your new capital was built with massive "Zhong Guo" assistance. Haven’t you got enough colonialism from the West? Or may be you don’t care, you probably do your living overseas somewhere in the West, possibly another of those few incubated in the colonial elitism like this Aung San Suu Ky did before. No wonder you don’t care for the average Burmese people from the way you posted. Even the 2 millions of Indian people in Myanmar care for Burmese more than you seem to do. Just remember her dad fought against West colonialism too. Remember, bottled up hatred won't get you anywhere. Be a happier person wherever you live. * [146]Recommend 19 * [147]Report * [148]Permalink * [149]reply [150]tocharian Feb 1st 2011 23:47 GMT The Burmese government should also let all the recent Chinese immigrant businessmen, who are exploiting and pillaging the country (and buying Burmese brides) return to Zhong Guo where they belong with their families. They have no business in Burma except create problems for the people. * [151]Recommend 19 * [152]Report * [153]Permalink * [154]reply [155]Nirvana-bound Feb 1st 2011 15:17 GMT China-bashing at it's subtlely devious worst! How about focussing for once on Uncle Sam's heinous shenanigans, world wide?? * [156]Recommend 18 * [157]Report * [158]Permalink * [159]reply [160]new student 2009 Feb 1st 2011 7:11 GMT Myanmar government should let lady Aung San Suu Kyi return to London where she belong with her family in London. She has no business in Myanmar except create problems for people. * [161]Recommend 27 * [162]Report * [163]Permalink * [164]reply [165]rwmurph Feb 1st 2011 2:45 GMT Aung San Suu Kyi is truly an inspiration to all who long for democracy, a better life, and peace. She is in my thoughts and prayers. * [166]Recommend 24 * [167]Report * [168]Permalink * [169]reply [170]tocharian Feb 1st 2011 2:12 GMT Let me add my 2 cents worth: 1. The corporations in the West are not even investing in their own countries (just look at the US unemployment rate) for short-term "financial" (i.e. profit-making) reasons. So why would they be interested in investing in Burma, except to exploit natural resources (perhaps not just gas and oil), which unfortunately always has some environmental impact (e.g. tar-sands in Canada). Besides, isn't it fashionable for Western businesses and politicians to "cosy up" with China. There is not much the "virtual Davos woman" can do to influence the complicated real greedy world of capital flow. It transcends politics (especially Burmese politics)! 2. China (including Chinese businessmen from Thailand and Singapore) do "invest" heavily in Burma. This fits in well with the strategic Chinese goal of of "sinicization of the periphery" (string of pearls). This economic, political and demographic "invasion" by the Chinese obviously causes a lot of environmental and social damage in Burma (except, of course, for the generals and their cronies). China is building gas/oil pipe lines, environmentally ill-conceived dams (almost all the electricity goes to China), railways (TE had a recent article about this), deep-water seaports (for both commercial and naval use), airports (a fancy one near Naypyidaw), etc. They also like to clear-cut Burmese virgin forests for timber (teak) and mine for gems (jade, gold and ruby) in Burma. (I'm not getting 50 cents for this post!) * [171]Recommend 27 * [172]Report * [173]Permalink * [174]reply [175]geezerLi Feb 1st 2011 1:40 GMT The Economist's obsession with blaming China has truly reached comical proportion! * [176]Recommend 31 * [177]Report * [178]Permalink * [179]reply [180]Francois de Callieres Jan 31st 2011 21:20 GMT There is in any case little Western interest in "investing" in Myanmar. Oil and gas, yes, but there is tremendous competition from the region. Otherwise, some niche investments and financial services. But that's about it. The West is no longer into manufacturing, which has already gone East. * [181]Recommend 25 * [182]Report * [183]Permalink * [184]reply * [185]Comment (9) * [186]Print * [187]E-mail * [188]Permalink * [189]Reprints & permissions * About Banyan Analysis of Asian politics and culture, from our Banyan columnist and other correspondents. 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By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [93]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [94]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [95]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [96]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [97]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [98]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [99]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [100]cookies information for more details [101]Banyan Asia * [102]Previous * [103]Next * [104]Latest Banyan * [105]Latest from all our blogs Myanmar's surprising government Dammed if they don't Oct 4th 2011, 1:15 by The Economist online * * [106]Tweet OBSERVERS are still wrestling with the implications of a stunning piece of news out of Myanmar on September 30th. Thein Sein, the president, informed parliament that work on a huge $3.6 billion dam on a confluence of the Irrawaddy river in the north-east of the country would be suspended for the duration of his term in office, ie, until at least 2015. The decision has provoked China, which has been building the Myitsone dam and would buy almost all of the electricity generated by the associated 6,000MW hydropower plant, into a rare public rebuke of a friendly neighbour. And critics at home and abroad have been taken aback by the reason Mr Thein Sein gave for the suspension: that it was “contrary to the will of the people”. That has not, in the past, been a consideration for Myanmar's rulers. Like many members of his government, Mr Thein Sein is a former general. But the “civilian” regime that succeeded the military junta after [107]rigged elections last year is trying hard to look different. The suspension of the dam comes after a series of conciliatory gestures, notably a meeting in August between the president and Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar's opposition, who was freed from house arrest last November, just after the election. That the new regime seems willing to antagonise China is the latest sign that things may really be different. Shunned by the West, Myanmar had been falling ever more closely into China's orbit. China is Myanmar's biggest foreign investor, followed by Thailand. A Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman has condemned the suspension of the dam and called on Myanmar to protect the rights of the Chinese companies involved. Myitsone is one of the most important of China's many projects in Myanmar. The main investor is the state-owned China Power Investment Corporation, whose construction arm had already started work. [108]On a visit to the site this year, The Economist's correspondent found that it had built supply roads and large pre-fabricated living quarters for the Chinese workers, cleared hillsides and moved the population to a resettlement village (pictured to the right). Of a series of seven Chinese-built dams planned on the Irrawaddy, the [109]Myitsone was to be the largest, and at about 150 metres (458 feet), one of the highest in the world. If completed, the dam's reservoir would flood an area the size of Singapore and drive more than 10,000 people, mainly from the Kachin ethnic group, from their ancestral lands. The area straddles territory controlled by the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), one of Myanmar's myriad insurgencies. Last May the KIO warned China that building the dam would lead to “civil war”. Since then fighting between government forces and the KIO's armed wing, the Kachin Independence Army, has increased markedly. [110]Thousands of villagers caught up in the clashes have fled the area. Hitherto suppressed environmental NGOs spoke out against the project. They were backed by Miss Suu Kyi, who in August wrote [111]an open letter calling for a reassessment of the project. She has welcomed the suspension because “every government should listen carefully to people's voices.” It is not just concerns about the environment or the people displaced that have raised hackles. There is widespread popular resentment against Chinese economic expansion within Myanmar, and against the large-scale immigration of Chinese nationals into northern Myanmar—estimates range from 1m to 2m—that has accompanied it. Many Burmese complain that Myanmar's states have become like provinces of China. The government's decision to suspend the dam comes at a time when it is also showing more willingness to engage with the West. Barack Obama's special envoy to Myanmar was there in September. The regime has even been hinting that it might release at least some of its 2,000 political prisoners. Their continued detention makes it hard for Miss Suu Kyi to advocate the lifting of Western sanctions, and her support for sanctions makes it hard for Western governments to drop them. In an interview this week with the BBC, she urged caution in assessing the government's intentions, but expressed at least [112]moderate optimism: “We are beginning to see the beginning of change.” Among the many signals the regime is sending by suspending the dam is that it does not want to be dependent solely on its neighbours, especially China. The regime is trying to build bridges with both its opponents at home and its critics overseas. The danger is that the changes it is making may not be fast enough or fundamental enough to win big concessions from the West. And in the past, when engagement has failed, there has been no shortage of vengeful hardliners waiting to come out of the woodwork. [113]Previous A murky Mongolian saga: Mistah Khurts, he free [114]Next Indonesia's election machinery: Steady at the ballot box * [115]Recommend 437 * * [116]Tweet * [117]Submit to reddit * * [118]View all comments (234)[119]Add your comment Related items TOPIC: [120]China » * [121]Focus: Patent applications * [122]Japan goes to the polls: The voters hold their noses... * [123]Foreign investment in Canada: Thus far but no further TOPIC: [124]Politics » * [125]Gun control: The gun control that works: no guns * [126]Guns in America: Broken hearted * [127]The Senate tax bill: A dreadful third option TOPIC: [128]Myanmar » * [129]Myanmar’s humanitarian crises: Exiled to nowhere * [130]Politics this week * [131]Studies in Naypyidology: How the other 43 live TOPIC: [132]World politics » * [133]EU summit and the euro crisis: Step by step, with a ripped map * [134]Filibuster reform: Parliamentary procedure is not about "the people" being heard * [135]The week ahead: December 14th 2012: Deep divisions More related topics: * [136]Asia-Pacific politics * [137]Chinese politics * [138]Myanmar politics Readers' comments The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. [139]Review our comments policy. * Add a comment (up to 5,000 characters): ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ Post Sort: * Newest first * [140]Oldest first * [141]Readers' most recommended * 1 * [142]2 * [143]3 * [144]4 * [145]5 * [146]6 * [147]7 * [148]8 * [149]9 * … * [150]next › * [151]last » [152]Mrwood Oct 18th 2011 2:27 GMT Indeed, a gutsy move. Though it seems like this leader actually cares about his citizens. Letting the dam be built would be letting the world know that China can get what it wants anywhere. But here they are saying no. The citizens will really respect him for this. Even if they lose possible revenue from it; money is definitely not everything. * [153]Recommend 7 * [154]Report * [155]Permalink * [156]reply [157]The Jested Oct 13th 2011 20:43 GMT This decision is incredible. I give Myanmar government props for finally listening to the people and even standing up to China! It seems like Myanmar is finally on track to be a better nation and a source of government that will listen to its people. China is certainly not happy with this rejection especially after how much preparation that had put into building this new dam. I wonder how this will affect relations between the countries and what other impacts it will have. * [158]Recommend 9 * [159]Report * [160]Permalink * [161]reply [162]orphan Oct 12th 2011 23:30 GMT @ codyw92 PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!!! codym92 the dam was ordered closed down by the present Myanmar president and not China!!! It is done in the name of environmental ground, is it sensible and logic!? Your can write your comments and I wish very much to have the honour in seeing it from you. I will reply after seeing what you and the others' response! * [163]Recommend 10 * [164]Report * [165]Permalink * [166]reply [167]codyw92 Oct 12th 2011 15:30 GMT China is having dealings with the entire world. They are rapidly exerting their influence in almost every place that will let them. They are increasing their economic and political power more and more every day. Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to do great things for Myanmar. She hasn't even been free for that long, and she already has done powerful things. I think she will eventually rise in power until she does as much good again as she did when Myanmar was still Burma. China almost has more influence in Myanmar than any native officials do - as evident when China suspended the construction of the dam. The Myanmar people don't like this, but there is not that much they can really do about it. * [168]Recommend 8 * [169]Report * [170]Permalink * [171]reply [172]orphan Oct 12th 2011 12:40 GMT @ [173]kellym11@vt.edu Why and what are so wrong for Chinese investment in Myanmar? China receiving most FDI since opening up to the world and she still remains very independent and self-reliance. Can the world and especially those who viewed China with colored lenses be more sensible and more objective in writing their comments!? MUST they be so stereotype!? China didn't exercise hegemony and force her will upon others! US always find China their whipping boy and this time their SENATE passed laws ridiculously classified China as "Currency Manipulation Nation" which will impose high taxes against all Chinese export to US! The most idiotic of this law is US already closed down all their factories and moved same to China and come to the worst if US don't import from China they still have to import from Vietnam or Indonesia etc. Can this law be admissible by the WTO is much in question! It is like robbing Peter and give to John; My God, don't tell me the US SENATE is full of a bunch of fools!!! * [174]Recommend 6 * [175]Report * [176]Permalink * [177]reply [178]kellym11@vt.edu Oct 10th 2011 17:21 GMT It’s great to see that Myanmar wants to declare their independence. Unfortunately for them, they can’t do this without the wealth and influence of China. China’s influence in all world affairs is growing rapidly and so is their economy and power. China realizes that Myanmar needs them so they are taking advantage of this fact and influencing them to the fullest. China will help them develop their country further, which is what they need for now but hopefully in the future Myanmar will rely less on China, and become more independent and less influential. * [179]Recommend 7 * [180]Report * [181]Permalink * [182]reply [183]Plaid Squid Oct 10th 2011 16:42 GMT Instability is the last thing Burma needs right now; especially since it is working its way to a true democratic election. The fact that fighting has broken out between the government and the resistance groups certainly doesn't help the process. * [184]Recommend 8 * [185]Report * [186]Permalink * [187]reply [188]vtimp Oct 10th 2011 13:56 GMT Myanmar is slowly becoming a more independent country. The influence of the Chinese and Thailand is diminishing from the country. Also, Aung San Suu Kyi has become a more relevant figure in Myanmar. After being released from house arrest, she has made herself noticed in the politics of Myanmar. Stopping the production of the dam shows that Myanmar is capable of making their own decisions not based on the influence of other countries. However, this move could be bad in that they planned on selling the power to China. This move by the president shows that Myanmar is truly moving towards a more democratic view as he takes into consideration the views of the people. * [189]Recommend 7 * [190]Report * [191]Permalink * [192]reply [193]chinacat Oct 10th 2011 5:37 GMT ... my favorite ancient book.... sorry then. * [194]Recommend 7 * [195]Report * [196]Permalink * [197]reply [198]chinacat Oct 10th 2011 5:36 GMT PL123 wrote: Oct 9th 2011 6:37 GMT @ ChinaCat Inform yourself better of Burma before writing your judgement. It is more than just investment. ------- what's more than investment? since when the thug nation is sooo important to China? the Chinese civilization has been there for 5000 years (only 1000 years less than the Indian civilization I was told, lol), sometimes no action is far more important than action: stop all the investment please dear president, or even better stop that by Chinese ourselves, that shows them how important they really are to China, by the way, I made the judgement after reading my the ancient book that's called Art of War, what on earth!!! lol * [199]Recommend 8 * [200]Report * [201]Permalink * [202]reply [203]chinacat Oct 10th 2011 5:24 GMT tocharian wrote: Oct 9th 2011 3:20 GMT Right on, "it is more than just investment", it is a Chinese invasion. Once Burma gets rid of all these illegal alien Chinese "bandit businessmen" and "PLA proxy armies", it will be on its way towards becoming a peaceful (if not a prosperous) country. ------ yeah, right, you got a new punch bag which is called China, punch harder please me friends then from there you are going to be a peaceful (even a prosperous) nation, lol. * [204]Recommend 8 * [205]Report * [206]Permalink * [207]reply [208]ryan2711 Oct 10th 2011 4:32 GMT Its a great sign to see the government finally acknowledging the people in Myanmar. The people deserve and voice and Aung San Suu Kyi is the main reason why the people still have a fighting chance. I hope to see this success grow and the country become more developed in serving the people instead of the militarized government. * [209]Recommend 7 * [210]Report * [211]Permalink * [212]reply [213]derekd7 Oct 10th 2011 3:21 GMT If the dam helps to prevent flooding in other regions it might be useful, but unfortunately it will flood other peoples' lands. I guess Myanmar is trying to avoid a civil war and this might be a good reason to not build a dam. China will be mad, but its better if the people of your country are happy. * [214]Recommend 8 * [215]Report * [216]Permalink * [217]reply [218]mikea713@vt.edu Oct 10th 2011 2:47 GMT Change in Burma has been a long time coming and its great for the people that the government is actually doing something, but I am unsure if this was the correct choice. I believe disagreeing with the Chinese at this point in time is not a good move. The Chinese economy could really help Myanmar move up in the world and continue to develop. But who knows what will happen now with future relations after the suspension of the dam * [219]Recommend 10 * [220]Report * [221]Permalink * [222]reply [223]jamie1vt Oct 9th 2011 22:33 GMT Stopping the construction of the dam is a HUGE step for Myanmar and the people of Burma. That bridge symbolized Chinese influence, and the stopping of the construction proves that Burma may actually be making advances towards democracy. Messing with a country as fiscally dominant as China is hard to do, and may not be the smartest move considering that some Chinese action is benefitting Burma. However, I will always be supportive of a country trying to to escape from the grasp of another country. * [224]Recommend 8 * [225]Report * [226]Permalink * [227]reply [228]tocharian Oct 9th 2011 15:20 GMT Right on, "it is more than just investment", it is a Chinese invasion. Once Burma gets rid of all these illegal alien Chinese "bandit businessmen" and "PLA proxy armies", it will be on its way towards becoming a peaceful (if not a prosperous) country. * [229]Recommend 10 * [230]Report * [231]Permalink * [232]reply [233]PL123 Oct 9th 2011 6:37 GMT @ ChinaCat Inform yourself better of Burma before writing your judgement. It is more than just investment. * [234]Recommend 6 * [235]Report * [236]Permalink * [237]reply [238]chinacat Oct 9th 2011 5:56 GMT I hail president's decision to stop the dam building, if only he did that earlier then our Chinese company lost less money. * [239]Recommend 8 * [240]Report * [241]Permalink * [242]reply [243]chinacat Oct 9th 2011 5:50 GMT the president should ban all the Chinese investment in his country, I see all the investment there are totally waste of money, we Chinese should consider our investment to be profit and use them on much better place, Myanmar is not a nice nation, it's a place that's run by bandits. * [244]Recommend 9 * [245]Report * [246]Permalink * [247]reply [248]hokVTies Oct 9th 2011 0:14 GMT This is a very brave and smart move for the independence of Myanmar as a country. By suspending the building of the dam Myanmar contradicted what China wanted ensuring that as a country it will not become dependent on China. At the same time they are reaching out to the western parts of the world, which if they can change some of the working conditions in their industries Myanmar will have a whole new market for its Natural gas, Wood, pulses and beans, Fish, rice, clothing, Jade and gems exports. * [249]Recommend 7 * [250]Report * [251]Permalink * [252]reply * 1 * [253]2 * [254]3 * [255]4 * [256]5 * [257]6 * [258]7 * [259]8 * [260]9 * … * [261]next › * [262]last » * [263]Comment (234) * [264]Print * [265]E-mail * [266]Permalink * [267]Reprints & permissions * About Banyan Analysis of Asian politics and culture, from our Banyan columnist and other correspondents. Named for a tree whose branches have sheltered great ideas [268]Follow us on Twitter @EconAsia [269]RSS feed Advertisement Explore trending topics Comments and tweets on popular topics Latest blog posts - All times are GMT [_0011_democracy-in-america.png] [270]Presidential power: When is a recess really a recess? 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Review our [99]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [100]cookies information for more details [101]Banyan Asia * [102]Previous * [103]Next * [104]Latest Banyan * [105]Latest from all our blogs Investing in Myanmar Triplicating success Jul 23rd 2012, 10:58 by F.C. | SINGAPORE * * [106]Tweet LAST month Thein Sein shared with an audience an “aspired goal” for his country’s economy: to triple per-capita GDP by 2016. With the current population that would entail inducing output to grow by more than 25% year on year—no mean feat by any standard. Even gas-rich Qatar, home to one of the world’s fastest-expanding economies last year, grew by a mere 14%. Apparently, realism in the realm of economics is not among the president’s many strengths. (In May Daw Aung San Suu Kyi made headlines by [107]warning foreign investors against placing “reckless optimism” in Myanmar at the World Economic Forum. The government was displeased.) But most of the businesses involved understand that it will take time to get the country’s dismal infrastructure into good working order. So alluring is the prospect of Myanmar's liberalising market, which has been shunned by the Western world since the mid-1990s thanks to sanctions, that [108]a conference in Singapore attended by ten of the government's senior officials last week drew throngs of eager businessmen from the region over. Organised by the Foreign Recruitment Centre, a Singapore-based employment agency, it aimed to equip businesses interested in Myanmar with contacts, a basic brief on the legal background, and a host of tips on securing better business deals. Never sign a contract on Friday; Saturdays and Sundays are fortuitous for doing deals; starting just about anything on a Monday and you'll be starting with a bad omen. So do not despair if an initial, Monday-morning meeting has to be postponed. Myanmar is hungry for foreign capital in virtually every sector of the economy. The officials who came to Singapore represented ministries governing commerce, post and telecoms, construction, trade, energy and the office of the attorney-general. They made their best sales pitches from a podium, looking out over a sea of businessmen eagerly awaiting the opportunities they describe. The standing Foreign Investment Law (1988) ensured that foreign investors can acquire no more than 35% of a company’s total equity, and only via local joint ventures, but reforms are expected to be passed by parliament by the end of July. The revisions planned should do away with the requirement that foreign investors establish local partnerships. Daw Mae Thi Lynn, from the office of Myanmar’s attorney-general, adds that the reformed law would grant investors the right to lease land from private owners for longer periods. This should be useful to the many businessmen who have been frustrated by the slow pace of industrial-property acquisitions. The government also unveiled plans for a commission that will “increase the role of the private sector” in telecommunications, energy, forestry, education and health. The hand that giveth however does not only giveth. In the same stroke it identified 12 activities that are to be undertaken only by state-owned enterprises, including the extraction and sale of teak, oil and natural gas, the export of gems, the manufacture of products related to security and defence, and others besides. U Kyaw Soe, the head of Myanmar Post and Telecommunication, says they expect to achieve 75% telecoms density in four years’ time: that is to say, that three-quarters of the population will have a mobile by then. In a country of 60m with only 3m subscribers today, that means at least 10.5m new subscribers a year. All the trickier where call rates remain among the priciest in the region, even as the GSM networks are stubbornly congested. But all that is to be a thing of the past, says Kyaw Soe, who hopes to see development in telecoms spread evenly throughout the country. There is already tension visible between the promise of gradual and steady development, on one hand, and the demand for quick provision of infrastructure for businesses with zone-specific development, on the other. A representative of Ocean Sky Global, an apparel-service provider whose operations include exporting from ports in Cambodia, Hong Kong and Taiwan to major buyers in the West, including Adidas, Columbia and Gap, says they have their eyes on Myanmar’s cheap, abundant, and relatively well-educated labour force. But many of their peers remain wary of jumping in too soon, due to the sorry state of infrastructure and logistics. Plans for major highways are still in their infancy, and as yet Myanmar has no deep-sea port, though plans exist for as many as four different sites. The construction of a deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu, on the Rakhine coast, is expected to be finished by the end of 2012. Kyaukpyu boasts the shortest trade route connecting China and the Mekong basin to India and the Middle East. A second deep-sea port, at Dawei, would form part of a special economic zone, a 250-square-kilometre industrial estate with sea, land, rail and pipeline links to the country’s neighbours. In particular it could connect to Thailand’s eastern seaboard via the Laem Chabang deep-sea port at Chonburi. This week Thein Sein and Thailand’s prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, affirmed their commitment to the $50 billion Dawei project, with Thailand's largest contractor, [109]Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited, leading the way. (Once upon a time, about a year ago, the estimated need for [110]investment was to be[111] just $8.6 billion.) Big plans then, for a relatively small economy with what looks like huge potential. That’s the song and dance chosen by a largely self-appointed, quasi-civilian government that until last year refused to subject itself to just about any part of international law. If Myanmar’s reformist government were to pull off even a passable rendition of the promised number, a standing ovation would be in order. [112]Previous Economics blogging: Salute to the India of ideas [113]Next Japan-America military alliance: Hard landing * [114]Recommend 162 * * [115]Tweet * [116]Submit to reddit * * [117]View all comments (11)[118]Add your comment Related items TOPIC: [119]Thein Sein » * [120]2013 in person: Thein Sein * [121]Myanmar’s parliament: Power grab * [122]Myanmar: Parallel tracks TOPIC: [123]Singapore » * [124]Recommended economics writing: Link exchange * [125]Foreign labour in Singapore: One strike and you're out * [126]The world in figures: Countries: Singapore TOPIC: [127]Thailand » * [128]Thailand’s politics: Whatever happened to Thaksin? * [129]The Economist: Digital highlights, November 17th 2012 * [130]The world in figures: Countries: Thailand TOPIC: [131]Myanmar » * [132]Myanmar’s humanitarian crises: Exiled to nowhere * [133]Politics this week * [134]Studies in Naypyidology: How the other 43 live Readers' comments The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. [135]Review our comments policy. * Add a comment (up to 5,000 characters): ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ Post Sort: * Newest first * [136]Oldest first * [137]Readers' most recommended [138]Ana Cristina Poulsen Aug 18th 2012 4:46 GMT Surely you can find good organisations that organise your investment in Myanmar like Grand Waktu or [139]http://businessinmyanmar.eu or other organisations * [140]Recommend 3 * [141]Report * [142]Permalink * [143]reply [144]Human Child Jul 26th 2012 5:28 GMT Surely you could have inserted a few lines expressing concern for the environment. After all, the kind of mass-scale destruction of the environment that enriches only a corrupt elite has pretty much happened everywhere else in the region. * [145]Recommend 8 * [146]Report * [147]Permalink * [148]reply [149]guest-ioaosoj [150]in reply to Human Child Jul 27th 2012 9:13 GMT lol are you saying that the Burmese government (which some Burmese posters on this forum hates but also claims to support because it's the only semblance of civilization that Barbaric Burma has) is not a kleptocracy? I mean China, India, and Thailand may be corrupt, but they are nowhere as corrupt as Burma. [151]http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/ Out of all the countries surveyed, Burma is tied with Afghanistan and only ahead of Somalia. * [152]Recommend 5 * [153]Report * [154]Permalink * [155]reply [156]guest-ioasaae Jul 26th 2012 2:33 GMT lol everyone knows that the Burmese are way too racist and violent to attract foreign investment. I mean, being racist against dark skinned people is bad, but performing a violent ethnic cleansing is sure to scare off most investors. Anyways, most of the "optimism" described in this article, as well as the investment conference in Singapore (at least one of them), came before the Rohingya ethnic cleansing began. [157]http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/07/16/251205/democracy-and-slaug hter-i... Excerpt: "The ‘pro-democracy’ Myanmar’s groups and individuals celebrated by Western governments for objecting to the country’s military junta are also taking part in the war against minorities. Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald on July 8, Hanna Hindstrom reported that one pro-democracy group stated on Twitter that “[t]he so-called Rohingya are liars,” while another social media user said, “We must kill all the kalar.” Kalar is a racist slur applied to dark-skinned people from the Indian subcontinent." * [158]Recommend 9 * [159]Report * [160]Permalink * [161]reply [162]siddsa Jul 25th 2012 14:50 GMT Hope is a good thing, probably best of things. When all is gone only thing left is hope, here to hoping that Myanmar (Burma) would achieve what their leaders aspire to. The path will be bot be smooth and probably would be marred by huge corruption, but the hope of better tomorrow is good. Here to hoping for peace (abatement of guerrilla war fare in it's minority dominated areas) and prosperity (relative) to one of the dark areas of world. * [163]Recommend 3 * [164]Report * [165]Permalink * [166]reply [167]Richard Michael Abraham Jul 25th 2012 13:59 GMT Myanmar vs. Accra, Ghana and Lagos, Nigeria I’ve indicated the leading economists in the United States announced in a joint statement that the U.S. Stock Market has been so manipulated by FED Bernanke, with PR and Spin, that the DOW, instead of its current 12,700 should be 6,000. (that’s over a 100% bloated, inflated Stock Market rise) If you’ve noticed, as I have alleged for years, the Stock Market rises on bad news or good news. When there’s bad news like bad employment numbers, bad GDP numbers, etc., the Stock Market goes up because the investor players say, “Good, now FED Bernanke will need to give us QE 3.” The Eurozone is in worse financial troubles. Thus, don’t be afraid to travel. Right now, in places like Accra, Ghana and in Lagos, Nigeria, if you’re game, you could go there and in 8-10 years accumulate $20,000,000 plus in cash, leading real estate development efforts with the skills you’ve learned. Then, you could return to your native Country, and enjoy life. Not such a crazy idea anymore. Indeed, being a World real estate developer is an occupation. Remember, the Value Generator Method to discover hidden development opportunities is as close to scientific certitude when employed correctly. What could be easier than developing in booming Global markets? Thus, I will be presenting Real Estate Development Seminars in Accra and Lagos, this December 2012. Acting on my research and instincts, my real estate development activities focus on Accra, Ghana and Lagos, Nigeria. These are incomparable regions for investment and real estate development. In Accra, Ghana and Lagos Real Estate Development is Booming. What ever business you're in, particularly, real estate development, consider the fabulous opportunities in Accra, Ghana and Lagos, Nigeria. The World economy has changed, making these two cities ripe for real estate development and investment. Warmest, Richard Michael Abraham Founder The REDI Foundation [168]www.redii.org * [169]Recommend 0 * [170]Report * [171]Permalink * [172]reply [173]TellTureOnly Jul 25th 2012 8:04 GMT Burma needs more aid as war in Kachin State continues [174]http://asiancorrespondent.com/86360/burma-needs-more-humanitarian- aid-fo... President Thein Sein has repeatedly said peace and stability is crucial in the making of a developed country. He also said that without national unity Burma, with over 100 races, cannot enjoy peace and stability. “If the local people realize the government’s goodwill policies and objectives and join hands together for development of their own region, all measures for progress of border areas and national races will be successful,” he said during 1/2011-Meeting held at the President Office in Naypyitaw in April. On the contrary, the Burma Army has been intensifying its power in Shan, Kachin and Karen States to clear out the ethnic armed forces fighting for self-determination. President Thein Sein’s words and his army’s actions paint two very different pictures. On the other hand, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) delegation met Vice Chairman Aung Min of newly formed Union-level Peace-making Committee at Mai Jayan on Sino-Burma border to hold informal talks on June 1, June 19 and 20. The KIO had already met Kachin State-level peace committee led by Col. Than Aung twice and then met with union level peace committee led by Aung Thaung three times and met unofficially with union level peace committee led by Aung Min four times. The fighting between government armed forces and KIA troops in Kachin State and northern Shan State has produced more and more war refugees since last March. The two armies had countless armed-clashes in June and both sides suffered several casualties in the warfare. The government delegation led by Aung Min and the KIO delegation had a meeting at Maijayan on June 20. During that meeting, they talked about the repatriation of war refugees as well as the withdrawal government troops from KIO controlled territory. However, on July 20, KIA’s 24th Battalion under 5th Brigade encountered Burma Army’s troop under 21st MOC between Bum Sawn hill and Daw Hpum. On July 21, a battle took place between KIA soldiers under 5th Brigade and Burma Army’s 142nd LIB at Ban Kawng Mu village. On the same day, more fighting took place between the KIA’s 23rd Battalion and Burmese army’s 40th LIB near Laja Yang, Kachinland News said. As of July 21, armed clashes continue between KIA’s 24th Battalion and Burmese army’s 387th LIR near Bum Sawn hill. A battle took place between KIA’s 15th Battalion under 3rd Brigade and Burmese army’s 317th LIR near Law Mun located between Kadaw and Namhpak Hka village in the evening of July 21. On July 22, three Burmese soldiers and one KIA soldier killed in a combat between a KIA’s mobile battalion and Burmese army’s MOC-3 near Gang Dau. As the civil war in Kachin State cannot stop so far, inhabitants have been hiding in the jungle or becoming refugees along the Sino-Burma border. People cannot carry on their agricultural and gardening careers. It causes the region food shortage and people suffer from malnutrition plus infectious diseases. * [175]Recommend 5 * [176]Report * [177]Permalink * [178]reply [179]TellTureOnly [180]in reply to TellTureOnly Jul 25th 2012 8:07 GMT Continue: Before the conflict between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and government armed forces in June 2011, there was sufficient foodstuff from the paddy and vegetable farms in the neighboring areas. The armed conflicts have forced many farmers to run away from their farming. It causes the groups of native people at the mercy of domestic and international donors including the UN Agencies. Humanitarian aid from international communities to victims in Kachin State amounted to US$ 16.7 million until the end of May, according the Eleven Media Group’s news. The aid went to needs for food, vocational training, health care and shelter. Among the aid donors are Australia, Germany, Britain, Denmark, the U.S, France, ECHO and CERF, headed by WFP, TBD, DWHH, Trocaire, HPA, Solidarities Int’l, UNHCR and UNICEF. The UN calculated that a total of 21.9 million would be needed to support a population of around 40,000. Even though, several IDPs as well as refugees suffered starvation since hostilities between KIA and the Burmese military have an effect on the supply routes en route for the refugees and IDPs’ camps in the deep jungle. The worst is that government troops commonly confiscate foodstuff transported from well-wishers to IDPs and war-refugees. Due to food scarcities, many residents have no choice but to rely on rice gruel which in long term is the cause of undernourishment and sickness. Last month’s meetings produced no solution. The government wants the KIO to sign a ceasefire before they discuss withdrawal of troops from the front lines. However, the KIO firmly said that it will not talk about the idea of ceasefire until the Burmese armed forces leaves KIO territories. Moreover, the KIO wants the participation of an international independent body like the UN to get involved in any such agreement. Without a political solution, situation may not be controlled over current fierce fighting between Kachin Independence Army and government armed forces. About 1650 battles have been fought since renewed fighting began on June 9, 2011, according to estimation made byKachinland News. It also said that KIO delegates have asked at least in three meetings to withdraw Burmese troops from KIO territory. But Burmese army has increased troop deployment in order to escalate its offensive war. As a result, hostility has intensified in the Kachin frontline zones. While the government has been talking about reform, its armed forces should not escalate hostilities in the ethnic states. It is also an obligation of the government to provide humanitarian assistance to those war refugees and IDPs in ethnic states. * [181]Recommend 4 * [182]Report * [183]Permalink * [184]reply [185]worldtraveller811 Jul 24th 2012 15:26 GMT Dear Myanmar, First protect your people of the GREEDY INVESTORS who pretend to be your friends but in fact are not. They just come to reap the harvest. You need investors but choose the right ones. Don't get uncontrolled greedy yourself. Beware of functioning as a "Commercial prostitute" to satisfy reckless business people from inside and outside of Myanmar.. This also includes Red Light Investment ! Do not copy Thailand. Analyse the impact of Industrialisation in your neighbour country THAILAND. There are a lot of negative things, incl. environment problems as well pollution and ugly commercial architecture. Referring general business think it over whether an indirect arrogant and traditions absorbing "Seven-Eleven-MiniMart-Culture" should be the ideal achievement of/for Myanmar ? Please, protect your people of the many negative things which automatically enter as wider you open the doors. Move slowly, check every "attractive" offer and deal. LESS IS VERY OFTEN MUCH MORE ! GO THE BUDDHISTIC MIDDLE WAY ! * [186]Recommend 9 * [187]Report * [188]Permalink * [189]reply [190]guest-ioaosoj [191]in reply to worldtraveller811 Jul 27th 2012 9:15 GMT Right because I would rather live in Barbaric Burma where the vast majority of people do not have access to reliable electricity or indoor plumbing than in Thailand where there are a lot of hookers and "ugly commercial buildings." Why do so many Burmese girls flee to Thailand to live in indentured servitude? * [192]Recommend 3 * [193]Report * [194]Permalink * [195]reply [196]Josh2012 Jul 24th 2012 10:07 GMT There are many challenges for Myanmar as they are being isolated for many decades. But it is obvious that Myanmar has a huge potential to becoem another Asia economics power house, of cause it will take a few decades. By studying current developments, every industries are progressing very fast. Besides, World’s largest economies are backing Myanmar development: China has been Myanmar’s close alliance for many decades, Myanmar and US relationship getting strong, Japan is helping to develop stock exchange and other sectors, etc. * [197]Recommend 1 * [198]Report * [199]Permalink * [200]reply * [201]Comment (11) * [202]Print * [203]E-mail * [204]Permalink * [205]Reprints & permissions * About Banyan Analysis of Asian politics and culture, from our Banyan columnist and other correspondents. 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Review our [99]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [100]cookies information for more details [101]Banyan Asia * [102]Previous * [103]Next * [104]Latest Banyan * [105]Latest from all our blogs Myanmar's minorities Caught in the middle Jul 11th 2012, 9:43 by J.M. | MAIJA YANG * * [106]Tweet BEFORE the war resumed, this border town in northern Myanmar pulsed with Chinese traders who kept gambling halls and brothels open around the clock. These days the streets are nearly empty, but scores of ethnic-Kachin civilians continue to pour into desolate camps on the edge of town. A fierce Burmese military campaign is driving them into the camps, and it shows no sign of abating one year on. While the world’s attention is diverted by the political thaw in lowland Myanmar, more than 75,000 Kachin (and counting) have been displaced from their native lands since the army attacked a Kachin Independence Army (KIA) outpost last June near a contested hydropower dam site, ending a 17-year cease-fire. Rights groups accuse Myanmar’s army of intentionally targeting civilians as part of their counter-insurgency strategy. They also stand charged of such abuses as rape, torture, forced conscription and summary executions. Residents at a large camp on the outskirts of Maija Yang speak of artillery barrages that have lasted for days, killing and maiming civilians as they fled to the bush. Fresh waves of Kachin are still arriving on foot from northern ShanState. Hostilities persist near the route of the Shwe pipeline, a multi-billion dollar joint project that is set to deliver [107]oil and gas from Myanmar’s coast to south-western China. Children separated from their parents sleep three to a bed in sweltering concrete barracks. With Burmese authorities blocking their access to the United Nations relief agency, they subsist on rations of rice and salt provided by local Kachin organisations straining under the pressure of new arrivals and monsoon rains. “It’s very bad right now…and sooner or later it could be a worse situation,” says May Li Awng, a Kachin aid worker who that has been helping tend to the displaced since fighting erupted last year. May Li Awng says that conditions are even worse for the 10,000 or more Kachin refugees who are stranded on the Chinese side. There relief is almost non-existent, due to China’s outright ban against foreign aid groups and media coverage of the refugees. Basic necessities such as food and medicine have to be smuggled across the border, where they are desperately needed to treat a surge in water-borne disease. Some of the refugees must even pay rent to the local landowners. In [108]a report released earlier this month, Human Rights Watch alleges China has gone so far as to order several hundred Kachin refugees back into the war zone. To date, the Chinese government has refused to classify the Kachin migrants on its soil as refugees. Were it to grant them the status, China would be obligated by international conventions to allow the UN and various Western monitoring groups access to the borderlands, a scenario it wants to avoid. Indeed, despite its decades-long support for Myanmar’s regime, China has never taken an official stance on its conflict with the Kachins. Like the powerful Burmese generals who operate on the other side of the border, it has sought to downplay the fighting in Kachin state, in order to cultivate its business interests in and around the afflicted area. Though remote and still economically under-developed, Kachin state is rich with jade, gold, tropical hardwood and hydropower potential—in which China has already invested billions, feeding a construction boom in Yunnan province. Both Myanmar’s army and the KIA have repeatedly linked Chinese-funded dam projects to the fighting, none more so than [109]the controversial Myitsone dam. Set to be the first and largest of seven dams that are planned down the length of the Irrawaddy river, Myitsone would have sent 90% of the electricity it generated to China, in exchange for $17 billion over 50 years. Adding their numbers to the tens of thousands displaced by the war, another 12,000 Kachin have been forcibly relocated by Myanmar’s government into Chinese-built “model villages” (pictured above), in order to clear the way for the dam site. The transplants have received free homes and appliances but they lack freedom of movement. A host of mining and timber projects have ravaged their native lands in the meantime. Last year the work at Myitsone was halted by the president, Thein Sein, after unprecedented protests over its social and environmental impact. His move was a shot in the arm for civic groups, yet many observers are convinced it was merely a temporary postponement. China is lobbying hard in Myanmar with a mix of carrot-and-stick measures designed to jump-start the dam’s construction; sometimes they insist that work on the dam has never actually stopped. The rights groups also harbour doubts about the ultimate authority of Myanmar’s new civilian leadership, which is bound by a rigid constitution and anyway largely comprised of former military figures. The consensus among locals in Kachin state is that work on the Mytisone dam will start up again at full steam after the monsoon rains have subsided. “Even if [Mr Thein] Sein is serious about reforming this country, his power is limited; he can be removed at any time,” says a Kachin community leader in the northern city of Myitkyina, who refused to be identified. “How do we really know he’s not just being used by the military leaders to extract more money and prestige from the West?” In Kachin state, business as usual may suit the interests of Burma’s shadowy generals and some of their Chinese counterparts. So long as the fighting continues, the prospects for a peaceful homecoming for the thousands of Kachins stuck outside their homeland look as bleak as ever. (Picture credit: J.M. | The Economist) [110]Previous Press freedom in Sri Lanka: Gota explodes [111]Next Cambodia's foreign relations: Losing the limelight * [112]Recommend 226 * * [113]Tweet * [114]Submit to reddit * * [115]View all comments (97)[116]Add your comment Related items TOPIC: [117]China » * [118]Daily chart: Faiths and the faithless * [119]American growth vs. the world: At the top of an underperforming class * [120]Daily chart: On top of the world in 90 days TOPIC: [121]Politics » * [122]Cliff talks: Relief in sight * [123]Gun control: First freedoms * [124]Israeli politics: Goodbye, for now TOPIC: [125]Myanmar » * [126]Myanmar’s humanitarian crises: Exiled to nowhere * [127]Politics this week * [128]Studies in Naypyidology: How the other 43 live TOPIC: [129]World politics » * [130]Money talks: December 17th 2012: Over to you * [131]Liberal Democrats: Cleggxistential crisis * [132]South Africa's ANC elections: Internal politics More related topics: * [133]Asia-Pacific politics * [134]Chinese politics * [135]Myanmar politics Readers' comments The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. [136]Review our comments policy. * Add a comment (up to 5,000 characters): ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ Post Sort: * Newest first * [137]Oldest first * [138]Readers' most recommended [139]guest-iojwmwa Jul 17th 2012 1:54 GMT The ‘pro-democracy’ Myanmar’s groups and individuals celebrated by Western governments for objecting to the country’s military junta are also taking part in the war against minorities. Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald on July 8, Hanna Hindstrom reported that one pro-democracy group stated on Twitter that “[t]he so-called Rohingya are liars,” while another social media user said, “We must kill all the kalar.” Kalar is a racist slur applied to dark-skinned people from the Indian subcontinent [140]http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/07/16/251205/democracy-and-slaug hter-i... The Burmese hates Indians. India should do its part to protect the Rohinya population. * [141]Recommend 4 * [142]Report * [143]Permalink * [144]reply [145]happyfish18 [146]in reply to guest-iojwmwa Jul 17th 2012 7:41 GMT Better still if the Indian just annex the Myanmar or the Rakhine state based on the plea from the Rohingya Kalar compatriots. * [147]Recommend 4 * [148]Report * [149]Permalink * [150]reply [151]guest-iojwmwa [152]in reply to happyfish18 Jul 17th 2012 8:01 GMT Why would India want to rule over some racist barbarians who are racist against all Indian-looking people? * [153]Recommend 8 * [154]Report * [155]Permalink * [156]reply [157]indica [158]in reply to guest-iojwmwa Jul 20th 2012 1:48 GMT This Economist essay has nothing directly to do with 'Rohingyas' or India, does it? The minority this essay focuses upon are the Kachins. Are you trying to be 'clever' or 'cute' or 'stupid', in diverting attention over to Rohingyas and India? I see that your 'echo' 'happyfish18' is there for you. * [159]Recommend 6 * [160]Report * [161]Permalink * [162]reply [163]guest-iojneim [164]in reply to indica Jul 20th 2012 9:04 GMT But oh this article has everything to do with the Rohingyas and India. You see the Bamar are killing the Rohingyas and Kachin right now in their quest to destabilize the world, but they will target Indians when they get the chance to. So don't turn your back on the Bamar, because they will kill you before you know it. (You see, the Bamar want to kill all "Kalar", like you.) You should think more globally, and less tribally. * [165]Recommend 4 * [166]Report * [167]Permalink * [168]reply [169]indica [170]in reply to guest-iojneim Jul 21st 2012 2:18 GMT Do not preach to me or say things like "the Bamar want to kill all 'kalar' like you". Your thinking is the most 'tribal' I have come across. Have you seen me, what do you know about my being "kalar" or not? Indians have been living in Burma peacefully, for many centuries. Early Buddhist teachers in Burma have been Indians. Rohingyas view BANGLADESH as their country of origin - NOT India. You think 'globally' did you say? India and B'desh are two different countries, did you know that? * [171]Recommend 7 * [172]Report * [173]Permalink * [174]reply [175]guest-ioajimj [176]in reply to indica Jul 21st 2012 4:29 GMT As mentioned in the article (and you can easily use Google to verify this fact), the "Kalar" refer to all people from the Indian subcontinent, and the Burmese hate and want to kill all "Kalar." The Rohingya actually view MYANMAR as their "country of origin" because they've been there for many generations. Before that they were probably Bangladeshi, and before that they were just "Indians." I know that India has some disagreements with Bangladesh and Pakistan from time to time but you don't feel disgusted when racist Barbaric Burma wants to "kill all Kalar"? * [177]Recommend 4 * [178]Report * [179]Permalink * [180]reply [181]indica [182]in reply to guest-ioajimj Jul 22nd 2012 2:13 GMT Racism is not good. Okay. There is trouble over 'Rohingyas' and Burmans. Yes. But there are many Indians in different parts of Burma, many of them Tamils and many from other parts of India. Some have married Burmese ladies and settled down in Burma. As you drive through any town of reasonable size in Burma you see Indian people, especially, Yangon and Mandalay. I have no confirmation that "All Burmans hate Indians". Finally, when Indians living in your country say they face no discrimination at all, then, I will agree with your posts. * [183]Recommend 6 * [184]Report * [185]Permalink * [186]reply [187]guest-ioameoe [188]in reply to indica Jul 22nd 2012 18:28 GMT Are Indians being killed and driven from their homes by the hundreds of thousands in China? I think not. Indians probably face as much discrimination in China as they do in the West. Unfortunately there is still small amounts of discrimination in all parts of the world. But Indians are being massacred and driven from their homes in Burma. What the Burmese are doing to the Rohingyas is quite possible the worst 1-sided genocide (the Rohingyas have no army to protect themselves) since WW2. I think the "discrimination" Indians face in Burma is many orders of magnitude worse than they face in the West or China. * [189]Recommend 6 * [190]Report * [191]Permalink * [192]reply [193]tocharian Jul 16th 2012 18:19 GMT Here is a recent article in the official Chinese propaganda newspaper "China Global Times" about the gas/oil pipeline: [194]http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/721413.shtml The pipeline will cut through Burma to deliver gas and oil from the terminal at Kyaukphyu (in Rakhaing State where the Rohingya also live) to Yunnan. There will be almost no benefits for the people in Burma if you forget the bribes for the corrupt "Chinese axe-handles" (tayoke pu-hsein-yoe) at the very top of the food-chain in Burma. Chinese invasive extractive projects, without any attention to environmental and social effects are ubiquitous (not just in Burma!). Confiscating ancestral lands from farmers is a serious human rights issue. * [195]Recommend 14 * [196]Report * [197]Permalink * [198]reply [199]guest-iojwmwa [200]in reply to tocharian Jul 16th 2012 19:22 GMT Well let's see, the West doesn't want to invest in Burma because you are a bunch of barbarians who love to kill each other and occasionally gang up to commit genocide against the Rohinyas. The Rohingya issue could very well prevent the real, important, sanctions to be lifted, and even if it were lifted few Westerners would want to invest in far-away and violent Burma that doesn't have oil. The Chinese (and other Asians like the Thai and Koreans) are corrupt enough to invest in ultra-corrupt and ultra-barbaric Burma, but you don't want them there. So what's the solution? Keep killing the Rohingyas and "seize and repatriate" all Chinese investments to give back to the Burmese! If it worked for Robert Mugabe against the white people in Zimbabwe, it'll work for the Burmese against the Chinese too! * [201]Recommend 8 * [202]Report * [203]Permalink * [204]reply [205]guest-iojwmwa [206]in reply to tocharian Jul 16th 2012 20:16 GMT By the way, you'll notice that the West does not have sanctions on many "resource rich" African countries, and yet invests very little there. Why? Because of geography. The cost of transportation of minerals just isn't worth it. Eg Americans can buy more cheaply from Canada, even if it has to pay higher production costs, than it can from Africa because the transportation costs outweighs the production costs. In a country as dysfunctional and violent as Burma, its own asset is its natural resources. (Eg nobody in their right mind would try to start a Microsoft or Apple there.) That leaves Burma with two potential buyers/investors, which are India and China. Throw in a Thailand and you may get to three, but oh wait the Burmese also hate the Thais (and probably Indians as well). * [207]Recommend 7 * [208]Report * [209]Permalink * [210]reply [211]tocharian [212]in reply to guest-iojwmwa Jul 16th 2012 21:06 GMT Be careful about mentioning Zimbabwe and Mugabe. Lots of Chinese "immigrants" live there "dining" on endangered species! [213]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zim babwe/... * [214]Recommend 10 * [215]Report * [216]Permalink * [217]reply [218]guest-iojwmwa [219]in reply to tocharian Jul 17th 2012 1:43 GMT Well I guess that eating turtles isn't as bad as mass-murdering Indian-looking Muslims with helicopters. [220]http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/07/16/251205/democracy-and-slaug hter-i... * [221]Recommend 5 * [222]Report * [223]Permalink * [224]reply [225]Devils Advocate_1 [226]in reply to tocharian Sep 19th 2012 6:25 GMT [tocharianJul 16th, 18:19 Here is a recent article in the official Chinese propaganda newspaper "China Global Times" about the gas/oil pipeline: [227]http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/721413.shtml The pipeline will cut through Burma to deliver gas and oil from the terminal at Kyaukphyu (in Rakhaing State where the Rohingya also live) to Yunnan. There will be almost no benefits for the people in Burma if you forget the bribes for the corrupt "Chinese axe-handles" (tayoke pu-hsein-yoe) at the very top of the food-chain in Burma. Chinese invasive extractive projects, without any attention to environmental and social effects are ubiquitous (not just in Burma!). Confiscating ancestral lands from farmers is a serious human rights issue.] The British Y-chromosome also cut through Aung San Suu Kyi with no benefit to the people of Burma. What are you going to do about this kind of corruption? Devil's * [228]Recommend 1 * [229]Report * [230]Permalink * [231]reply [232]happyfish18 Jul 16th 2012 4:42 GMT Like all small ethnic everywhere, Kachins are fighting a losing ethnic battle against Government and MNCs backed by neo-Imperialists, Cultural and ethnic genocides are conveniently put aside or even encouraged in favour of profits ringing up in the companies balance sheets. * [233]Recommend 6 * [234]Report * [235]Permalink * [236]reply [237]tocharian Jul 13th 2012 15:12 GMT Here is a quick "background info": China has always been meddling in Burmese affairs. After WW II, the remnants of Chiang Kaishek's KMT (Kuomingtang) army moved into the Shan States to fight against Mao's communists. They started growing opium there as a cash crop (and the CIA supported that). The Burmese Army, in those days (early 50's) actually collaborated with Mao's troops in an attempt to drive out the KMT. Many of the famous drug warlords in Shan State like Khun Sa and Hsinghan Lo (father of Steven Law a junta crony) are remnants of the KMT. After that China supported and supplied the BCP (Burmese Communist Party). The older generals of the military junta like Than Shwe and Maung Aye probably remember fighting combined BCP and PLA troops in the 60's and the 70's. Those were very serious and fierce battles, I remember. The US was fighting in Vietnam then. Mao even tried to "export" his silly Cultural Revolution into Burma and that was the main reason for the anti-Chinese riots in 1967 (I was living in Rangoon during that period and I witnessed those things). Some say Communists "agitators" were involved even in the infamous "1988 uprising" which was brutally repressed by Ne Win (a half Chinese by the way). The 20,000 man strong Wa ethnic amy (UWSA), the bigest ethnic army in Burma, is a direct remnant of the BCP and is basically a PLA proxy. In the 90's that drug-dealer-friend Khin Nyunt, who was the then Prime Minister, made cease-fire deals with the "ethnic armies, so that they have their own autonomous areas (turf, I would say) to freely conduct their lucrative gambling, smuggling (timber, gold, jade etc.), trafficking (drugs, girls (Thailand is a tourist-mecca for sex and China has a surplus Y-chromosomes lol) etc.) operations, mainly along the Chinese and Thai borders. That was the way, these rebel war-lords funded themselves and their "armies" in collaboration with corrupt local Chinese bosses in Yunnan. There were casinos, brothels, even golf clubs along the border. Happy poppy fields period, I would say. However, with China's "rise", things began to change. China started having megalomaniac hegemonial dreams. Burma, because of its location (direct access to the Bay of Bengal) became an important pawn in their deep geo-strategic plans. That's why they are so obsessed about building all these dams, gas/oil pipelines and naval bases in Burma. Peking started bribing and bullying Than Shwe and his cronies to sign MoU's that would let China exploit natural resources and use Burma as a convenient gateway to the Indian ocean. Being cash-strapped under Western sanctions (imposed by Suu Kyi lol), Than Shwe had no choice but to comply. He and his cronies such as the business tycoon Tayza were compensated royally with Chinese bribes that are stashed away in Singaporean banks. Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt are gone and the cease-fire is broken with the KIA (Kachin Independence Army). Now in a strange twist, the KIA claims that they are fighting to prevent the Chinese from exploiting "their land" and that the Burmese Army is paid by the Chinese to protect Chinese mega-projects, such as the Myitsone dam and the gas/oil pipeline (these invasive projects would have a devastating impact on the ecosystem, not just locally). So what the Kachin rebels have to understand is the "change in scale" of what's going on. It's no longer "cross-border smuggling" where you make deals with the local Yunnan chieftains. Things are now happening at a more global strategic scale and as far as I can remember only the Burmese generals are invited to Peking, no local war-lords. the game is played in a different league now! Of course, the poor rural people everywhere in Burma will suffer, all in the name of the Great Economic Leapfrog Forward. The blue-eyed (naive) helpers, human rights activists, aid-workers (NGO's, INGO's, AI, UNHCR, whatever) are pretty much small fry in this big political landscape. They are nice people trying to help but pretty much irrelevant (except for a few select refugees waiting for a plane ticket to places like Fort Wayne Indiana!). * [238]Recommend 45 * [239]Report * [240]Permalink * [241]reply [242]guest-isnnwws [243]in reply to tocharian Jul 13th 2012 15:27 GMT BANGKOK — They have been called ogres and animals, terrorists and much worse – when their existence is even acknowledged. Asia's more than 1 million ethnic Rohingya Muslims are considered by rights groups to be among the most persecuted people on Earth. Most live in an anachronistic purgatory without passports, unable to travel freely or call any place home. In Myanmar, shaken this week by a bloody spasm of violence involving Rohingyas in which dozens of civilians died, they are almost universally despised. The military junta whose half-century of rule ended only last year treated them as foreigners – fueling a profound resentment now reflected in waves of vitriol being posted online. "People feel it very acceptable to say that 'We will work on wiping out all the Rohingyas,'" said Debbie Stothard, an activist with the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, referring to hyperbolic Internet comments she called "disturbing." [244]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/14/myanmar-conflict-rohingya -musli... Well if the Burmese Barbarians are such genocide-lovers, as Debbie Stothard pointed out, maybe they are in need of some foreigners to teach them that genocide is bad? You Bamars may think that Burma belongs to you and the Rohingyas are slaves whom you can murder at your pleasure, but the world won't let it happen! * [245]Recommend 37 * [246]Report * [247]Permalink * [248]reply [249]tocharian [250]in reply to tocharian Jul 13th 2012 15:29 GMT I should also add that the porous borders and rampant corruption created an ideal situation for all these illegal immigrants (a lot of Rohingya but even more Chinese) that some Burmese are so "outraged" about. Blame it on Khin Nyunt! In fact, I was once asked (of course informally) by someone who has some kind of connection to the Chinese, whether I would like to go back to Burma, because he can "arrange things for me" so that I can "buy" a Burmese ID. Such is the "Sino-Myanmar "paukphaw" relationship" that even Suu Kyi is praising! * [251]Recommend 18 * [252]Report * [253]Permalink * [254]reply [255]guest-isnnwws [256]in reply to tocharian Jul 13th 2012 15:38 GMT Actually the Rohingyas have been in Burma for many generations, and in most "civilized countries" (like the USA), if you are born there, you are automatically entitled citizenship, even if your parents were illegal immigrants. But I guess the Burmese are Barbarians and thus want to keep a million or so Rohingya slaves to serve their genocidal needs. * [257]Recommend 22 * [258]Report * [259]Permalink * [260]reply [261]tocharian [262]in reply to guest-isnnwws Jul 13th 2012 15:52 GMT I agree that many Rohingyas and also many Chinese, like the ones in Kokang region, have been living in Burma for many generations, but there are also a lot of recent immigrants and those are mainly from China (and a few from Bangladesh too, I think). I am not saying what the rules of citizenship should be in Burma, even Suu Kyi said she "doesn't know". I am just pointing out the blatant "a-symmetry" between the way Rohingyas are treated and Chinese are viewed by many Burmese. I think it's hypocritical. For me, Rohingyas are no different from Chinese! Chinese are also humans like Rohingya, no? I don't believe in "ethnicity". By the way, China doesn't automatically give citizenship to everyone born in China, so is China "uncivilized"? * [263]Recommend 14 * [264]Report * [265]Permalink * [266]reply [267]guest-iojjjaw [268]in reply to tocharian Jul 13th 2012 15:57 GMT Yes it is very sad that even Suu Kyi, your British-educated 1-Kyat-Master, is racist toward the Rohingyas. Surely she knows that they have lived in Burma for many generations and thus should be citizens in accordance to British values of universal rights, but she chooses to be a racist genocide-appeaser anyways. "I don't believe in "ethnicity"." Of course you believe in ethnicity. You believe that the Bamar are genetically superior to the Rohingyas and Chinese and want to wipe out the Rohingyas (nd Chinese), as Debbie Strothard has clearly shown. "By the way, China doesn't automatically give citizenship to everyone born in China, so is China "uncivilized"?" Actually it does. If you have a birth certificate in China, then you are automatically entitled to Chinese citizenship. In fact I personally know a few black couples (immigrants from Africa) who have recently gave birth in China and registered their (100% ethnically African) babies as Chinese citizens. * [269]Recommend 23 * [270]Report * [271]Permalink * [272]reply [273]tocharian [274]in reply to guest-iojjjaw Jul 13th 2012 16:37 GMT I am actually mixed (a bit of Rohingya, a bit of Sentinelese, a bit of Pyu, a bit of Mon, who knows?) * [275]Recommend 16 * [276]Report * [277]Permalink * [278]reply [279]happyfish18 [280]in reply to tocharian Jul 14th 2012 14:01 GMT Hope more of your less fortunate Rohingya Bangla compatriots can join your Jihad against the Myanmarese Junta-led government from your safe haven in Canada, * [281]Recommend 8 * [282]Report * [283]Permalink * [284]reply [285]worldtraveller811 [286]in reply to tocharian Jul 15th 2012 5:33 GMT Congratulation and thank you very much, tocharian, for this ecellent historical & political comprehension. If you had delivered that qualified "excursion in a nutshell" to western embassadors two decades before it might have caused an impact on (at that time) shortsighted western political decisions referring sanctions on Burma. * [287]Recommend 10 * [288]Report * [289]Permalink * [290]reply [291]worldtraveller811 [292]in reply to tocharian Jul 15th 2012 5:56 GMT Thank you very much, tocharian, for this excellent historical and political comprehension ("excursion in a nushell") on the complex situation in Burma a few decades ago and its impact until present time. * [293]Recommend 9 * [294]Report * [295]Permalink * [296]reply [297]worldtraveller811 [298]in reply to tocharian Jul 15th 2012 6:04 GMT @tocharian Thank you very much for this excellent historical and politcal comprehension which makes it clear to us how complex and difficult the situation in Burma was and how it has caused impacts until the present time. * [299]Recommend 11 * [300]Report * [301]Permalink * [302]reply [303]ouyoumei [304]in reply to tocharian Jul 15th 2012 23:22 GMT KMT didn't 'start' growing those opium, those fields were the legacy of British colonialism, at the century of expense against the Chinese. The KMT presence in Burma was covert operation supported by America, it is called 'Operation Paper,' an attempt to divert Mao's troop away from the Korean War. And the remnant troops left Burma in the 60's. What are you trying to achieve here, stereotyping specifically the Chinese. The Cold War was a global wide contest with the possibility of total annihilation for mankind. Part of the Containment Policy, capitalist troops spread across the entire Asian Continent, fighting from Korea, Taiwan, Indochina, Tibet, Turkey and later to Afghanistan. What was at stake was the entire planet, which outweighs much more than the insignificant Bamar-centric racist self interest. And be ashamed you are nagging now without even thinking about contributing to global stability and prosperity in the past. Knowing Bamar are this disproportionately selfish, I feel sorry for those hard working self sacrificing Tzu Chi volunteers whom are still continuing their rigorous aid work since the devastating Burmese cyclone. * [305]Recommend 3 * [306]Report * [307]Permalink * [308]reply [309]happyfish18 [310]in reply to tocharian Jul 16th 2012 3:45 GMT If it is supported by the KMT, then it is supported covertly by the CIA to undermine the Government. If it is supported by the CCP, then it must be contained. That is why the Myanmarese are suffering from the Western interferences to develop out of poverty. This pattern of Western patronage is seen throughout the developing world like in Africa and Latin America, Fortunately these areas have seen some rapid development after half a century of struggles against colonialism, Nevertheless the neo-Imperialists are always there to stir up Chaos and civil wars using excuses like drugs, ethnic conflicts etc. like what Mexico's Calderon has warned. Today Myanmar could be in the throe of another ethnic war encouraged by outside interferences. * [311]Recommend 8 * [312]Report * [313]Permalink * [314]reply [315]worldtraveller811 [316]in reply to tocharian Jul 16th 2012 5:30 GMT @tocharian Thank you very much for this excellent historical and political comprehension about the past in Burma and its impacts which we still feel at present time. * [317]Recommend 4 * [318]Report * [319]Permalink * [320]reply [321]happyfish18 Jul 13th 2012 12:58 GMT Of the 100+ odd ethnicities, the priority seems to be to resettle the Rohingya Banglas ethnics in UK, Australia, Canada, Norway, US etc. under a human rights program in order for them to practice their Syariah Laws. The problem with other ethnics is relatively straight-forward as it can be easily resolved through faster development of the Myanmar economy and politician Aung San democracy. * [322]Recommend 14 * [323]Report * [324]Permalink * [325]reply [326]Udoit Jul 13th 2012 6:56 GMT Its Yugoslavia 2.0 Sooner they go their separate ways the sooner healing process will start. * [327]Recommend 19 * [328]Report * [329]Permalink * [330]reply [331]moe aung [332]in reply to Udoit Jul 13th 2012 22:27 GMT The Burmese are not Serbs, Uidiot. * [333]Recommend 16 * [334]Report * [335]Permalink * [336]reply [337]guest-iojjmmj [338]in reply to moe aung Jul 13th 2012 22:33 GMT But "Myanmar" (whatever that is) sure does resemble the former Yugoslavia. * [339]Recommend 14 * [340]Report * [341]Permalink * [342]reply [343]moe aung [344]in reply to guest-iojjmmj Jul 13th 2012 23:28 GMT Burma (Myanmar) is not Yugowhatever. Resemblance very superficial. All the minorities together make up only a third of the population. That's why it's called the Union of Burma (Myanmar). * [345]Recommend 12 * [346]Report * [347]Permalink * [348]reply [349]guest-iojjmmj [350]in reply to moe aung Jul 14th 2012 1:22 GMT Then why do most ethnic groups have their own armies of independence? Why do many ethnic minorities feel as though the Bamar are out to destroy them? Too bad the Rohingyas are too poor to buy the weapons needed to defend themselves from the Bamar genocide. I think a rich Saudi oil tycoon should donate a few million to train a Rohingya army. * [351]Recommend 18 * [352]Report * [353]Permalink * [354]reply [355]moe aung [356]in reply to guest-iojjmmj Jul 14th 2012 14:03 GMT Got their own [357]spokemen, [358]lobbyists, even Jihadists, Jamal/Majeed whatever. Never you worry. * [359]Recommend 8 * [360]Report * [361]Permalink * [362]reply [363]guest-iojjmmj [364]in reply to moe aung Jul 14th 2012 16:38 GMT All of these people are foreigners who are only talking about the Rohingya genocide. I want them to do more action and less talking and buy the Rohingyas some weapons! * [365]Recommend 11 * [366]Report * [367]Permalink * [368]reply [369]guest-isnnmej Jul 13th 2012 3:28 GMT The only thing that can unite India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, and all other Muslim and dark skinned countries is hatred toward Burma. The Burmese are performing ethnic cleansing against the dark skinned and Muslims, so it's no surprise the victims and people related to the victims dislike the Burmese. [370]http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/13/opinion/ethnic-cleansing-of-myan mars-r... [371]http://india.nydailynews.com/newsarticle/4fff17e7c3d4caaa1f000000/ myanma... India, Pakistan, and China may have their differences, but at least these differences are, for the past 3 decades, settled in peaceful and diplomatic ways. (Mumbai bombing not withstanding) An enemy of an enemy is a friend, and all of Asia (and perhaps the rest of the world?) should be united against Burma. * [372]Recommend 30 * [373]Report * [374]Permalink * [375]reply [376]guest-isnnmoe [377]in reply to guest-isnnmej Jul 13th 2012 5:04 GMT BANGKOK — They have been called ogres and animals, terrorists and much worse – when their existence is even acknowledged. Asia's more than 1 million ethnic Rohingya Muslims are considered by rights groups to be among the most persecuted people on Earth. Most live in an anachronistic purgatory without passports, unable to travel freely or call any place home. In Myanmar, shaken this week by a bloody spasm of violence involving Rohingyas in which dozens of civilians died, they are almost universally despised. The military junta whose half-century of rule ended only last year treated them as foreigners – fueling a profound resentment now reflected in waves of vitriol being posted online. "People feel it very acceptable to say that 'We will work on wiping out all the Rohingyas,'" said Debbie Stothard, an activist with the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, referring to hyperbolic Internet comments she called "disturbing." [378]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/14/myanmar-conflict-rohingya -musli... It seems that the vast majority of Burmese are racist genocide lovers, as seem by their Internet comments. "People feel it very acceptable to say that 'We will work on wiping out all the Rohingyas" said Debbie Stothard. The world must unite to put an end to Burmese racist genocidal ambitions before it spreads. * [379]Recommend 21 * [380]Report * [381]Permalink * [382]reply [383]moe aung [384]in reply to guest-isnnmej Jul 13th 2012 12:03 GMT Never realised Burma was inhabited by white Caucasians/KKK. Hatemongers unite, eh? Incredible intellect in evidence here on TE. Truly remarkable. * [385]Recommend 15 * [386]Report * [387]Permalink * [388]reply [389]guest-isnnwws [390]in reply to moe aung Jul 13th 2012 15:24 GMT Actually the KKK are another racist group in another part of the world. (But I understand why an uneducated Burmese may be confused.) The Burmese, at least the ones who comment on the Internet, are clearly OK with committing genocide against the Rohinyas. Let me repeat: "People feel it very acceptable to say that 'We will work on wiping out all the Rohingyas" said Debbie Stothard. The world must perform its moral duty to stop the Burmese from such atrocities. Rwanda happened, Darfur happened, and hopefully we can stop the Rohingyas genocide before they are completely wiped out by you Burmese murderers. * [391]Recommend 16 * [392]Report * [393]Permalink * [394]reply [395]moe aung [396]in reply to guest-isnnwws Jul 13th 2012 16:01 GMT Steady on, Nawaz. Never go and provoke the Burmese, or do it at your peril. Threats and abusive language do not amount to genocide. But ethnic cleansing has already been carried out by the Chittagonians in the three townships next to the border. Newton's Third Law of Motion applies here, genius. Aggression begets aggression. Respect begets respect. * [397]Recommend 13 * [398]Report * [399]Permalink * [400]reply [401]guest-iojjjaw [402]in reply to moe aung Jul 13th 2012 16:21 GMT Oh ok my mistake. The Burmese are mostly only talking about committing genocide at this point (like you mentioned), but haven't ramped up their genocide-committing to full speed yet. (Maybe they will in the near future?) * [403]Recommend 18 * [404]Report * [405]Permalink * [406]reply [407]moe aung [408]in reply to guest-iojjjaw Jul 13th 2012 22:22 GMT You betcha. * [409]Recommend 15 * [410]Report * [411]Permalink * [412]reply [413]guest-iojjmmj [414]in reply to moe aung Jul 13th 2012 22:32 GMT See (tocharian/Adam Onge/whatever else you're known as on this website), your Burmese relative just proved my point. * [415]Recommend 17 * [416]Report * [417]Permalink * [418]reply [419]moe aung [420]in reply to guest-iojjmmj Jul 14th 2012 14:05 GMT Obviously they don't do sarcasm or irony here, toch. * [421]Recommend 9 * [422]Report * [423]Permalink * [424]reply [425]guest-iojjmmj [426]in reply to moe aung Jul 14th 2012 16:26 GMT How is it sarcasm? Do you even know what sarcasm means? Let's review: I quoted: "People feel it very acceptable to say that 'We will work on wiping out all the Rohingyas,'" said Debbie Stothard, an activist with the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, referring to hyperbolic Internet comments she called "disturbing." Then you wrote: Threats and abusive language do not amount to genocide. Then I wrote: Oh ok my mistake. The Burmese are mostly only talking about committing genocide at this point (like you mentioned), but haven't ramped up their genocide-committing to full speed yet. How is this sarcasm at all? You are talking about committing genocide on the Internet (and this is well documented by many Western newspapers) against the Rohingyas. * [427]Recommend 12 * [428]Report * [429]Permalink * [430]reply [431]tocharian [432]in reply to moe aung Jul 14th 2012 17:13 GMT Like most "Myanmarese" you are very naive, about Rohingyas but even more so about Chinese. These commentators that you are replying to are not "Bangladeshi Muslims". They are Chinese. Some of these comments, like the ones by guest-isnoowi are actually my comments about China, which they have reverse-engineered (change some words) to get back at me (Chinese WMD's change their names all the time and use these guest-xxxxxxx log-ins). Anyway, this article is about the Kachins, not about the Rohingyas, but the Chinese are using this "ugly" issue because they want to exploit that "anti-Rohingya" sentiment, which many "Myanmarese" seem to have nowadays. I speculate that this is partly fueled by the USDP (whose leaders have business ties to China) and is probably related to the Kyaukphyu naval base and terminal of the gas/oil pipeline that the Chinese are building. My advice to the Kachins and all the other "Myanmarese": Think global and stop acting local (or tribal lol). * [433]Recommend 20 * [434]Report * [435]Permalink * [436]reply [437]Bismarck888 [438]in reply to moe aung Jul 14th 2012 17:19 GMT You think Myanmar will get away with it, because they are Muslim. As long as they don't go all Jihadi and blow up Trader's Hotel in Yangon (its a Singaporean Chain), some in the West will be sympathetic. Myanmar is not Thailand, who have a raging Malay Muslim insurgency in Southern Thailand. Instead Myanmar is pariah state trying to get bank into the good graces of the international community. Thailand gets away with it, because they earned blowjob points for blowing horny Western/Chinese sex tourist. That is reality. And the Thais have a lot of blow job points. The basic impulse in a bureaucracy is to do nothing.or work to maintain the status quo. The treatment of the Rohingya provides an reason for Western governments not to do anything. * [439]Recommend 16 * [440]Report * [441]Permalink * [442]reply [443]Bismarck888 [444]in reply to tocharian Jul 14th 2012 17:39 GMT guest-xxxxx is not WMD, he just likes to irritate you, because you think everything is a Chinese conspiracy. He is some 20 something half Chinese screwing himself through Shanghai. Most other Chinese are not all that interesting in the Rohingya. If there is a nation that is has screwed itself so well without the assistant of malignant outside forces, Burma would win top prize. The funny thing is Aung Sang Suu Kyi had no issues with Junta during their post destructive period (1962-1990), when they were closed off Burma from the outside world. The paradox is just when the Junta starts to open up in the late 1980s, Aung Sang Su Kyi emerges. Where was she during 1960-1990?. Like the Junta, you and moe aung like to conjure up conspiracy theories and ghost. In the Junta's case its the outside world (no one in particular, at least they are not Racist), in your case its the Chinese, in moe aung, its Muslims. Is it some inbreed trait? Sooner or later, Burma will decide to close itself off, because they can't take the criticism. * [445]Recommend 13 * [446]Report * [447]Permalink * [448]reply [449]guest-iojjmmj [450]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 14th 2012 18:33 GMT lol that was funny... By the way, @ tocharia/Adam Onge, you're not so much naive as you are delusional. I wonder if the military junta is delusional like you or naive like moe? * [451]Recommend 11 * [452]Report * [453]Permalink * [454]reply [455]moe aung [456]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 14th 2012 18:33 GMT Not a Muslim issue per se, genius. It's a territorial issue. The Camel and the Arab. How many times! Ever heard of the 8888 Uprising, somewhere in between 1962 and 1990, capiche? That's what gave birth to ASSK's role and the National League for Democracy. And BTW criticism cuts both ways, Sherlock. Tsk, tsk, tsk...touchy! * [457]Recommend 9 * [458]Report * [459]Permalink * [460]reply [461]moe aung [462]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 14th 2012 19:07 GMT Well done, son. Ever heard of the [463]Mujahid Party of Arakan led by Jaffar Kawal? Shall we look at the way the Chittagonian/Rohingya have [464]behaved like 'good citizens' in their host country? * [465]Recommend 8 * [466]Report * [467]Permalink * [468]reply [469]moe aung [470]in reply to guest-iojjmmj Jul 14th 2012 19:25 GMT Genocide is always an emotive term, my son. Ethnic cleansing rather less so, don't you think? Look who has actually done that kind of [471]ethnic cleansing in northern Arakan in living memory (p 406-7). It's well documented by the British, your colonial masters. Western enough for you? You wouldn't know sarcasm if it bit you, Master Shifu. * [472]Recommend 9 * [473]Report * [474]Permalink * [475]reply [476]moe aung [477]in reply to tocharian Jul 14th 2012 19:40 GMT Don't care if they are Indo-Chinese, or Martians for that matter. You are a fine one to talk, toch. Talk, toch, geddit? Think Chinese when the Chinese think global, no? Think outside that China box, it's fragile. Obsession is not pretty, my good man. You know as well as I do both the Chinese (Tayoke) and the Rohingya (Kalar) are asking for it. Their so called leaders don't really care, from Saudi Arabia, London and Washington, or Beijing, even Kunming. It's the hapless albeit ambitious driven folk in the front line that will get it in the neck. Burmese Muslims are smart enough to stay out of it, at least in public. * [478]Recommend 8 * [479]Report * [480]Permalink * [481]reply [482]Bismarck888 [483]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 0:35 GMT The assumption that the West will give you and other Bamars a blow job, is arrogant. It takes a long time to win the sympathy of the West, so Myanmar can get away with murder of the Rohingya. Westerners don't give a crap about your argument that they are forming a separate state. Or that they are Muslim radicals. Unless Myanmar has a long record as a Western f*** buddy (ie Thailand or the Philippines), the West will not ignore what is happening to Rohingya and lift most of hte sanctions. Why don't you use your many talents, and offer your services to Myanmar? Your backside might not like it so much. On the international stage, Myanmar is like the street punk who has been jailed for 10 years for assault, and now he is out on probation, and the first thing he does is beats a poor lady to a coma. Really smart, but that is expected, for a country that has won the award for "Self Abuse" for 60 years running. Even North Korea has an excuse. You can brag about evil Muslims are, watch out blah blah. Muhammad in Saudi Arabia is able to enjoy a refreshing cold bottle of Coca Cola. Coca Cola represents civilization. Unfortunately, at this moment, Burmese, are not civilized even to enjoy a ice cold bottle of Coke yet. No need for Coke, you guys got Heroin. "Inject, snort, I don't really care, as long as I get my daily fix" should be the national anthem. * [484]Recommend 11 * [485]Report * [486]Permalink * [487]reply [488]moe aung [489]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 15th 2012 1:10 GMT Now, now, language, my son. Go wash your filthy mouth out. With friends like you the Rohingya don't need enemies. Who says 'evil Muslims'? Not me. It's an emotive word best reserved for insecure semi-literate 'commenters', like you perhaps. Did I mention Hitler or the Nazis? And don't bank on your white masters, Bishr. They sell Coke (your favourite, enterprising to the point of gun-running even to the native Americans while they were busy ethnic cleansing the same people), and snort some of the other kind themselves. Very civilised, eh? Ever heard of [490]what Gandhi thought of Western civilisation? * [491]Recommend 8 * [492]Report * [493]Permalink * [494]reply [495]Bismarck888 [496]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 2:02 GMT As for the word Evil, use what ever word you like. But that does not change the fact that Myanmar is poor, backward, war ravaged and isolated. I guess you want to turn Burma into a Gandhian Utopia, please be my guest. I don't see how different it is from what the Junta have done for the past 40-50 years? The problem is you are fixated with being your own master, doing what use please. Your line of reasoning is the very same reasoning that led to Burma closing itself off from the outside world for 40+ years. Even the North Koreans shut themselves off after 1955, they at least had friends in the Eastern Bloc. The same with Cuba. It takes talent to shut yourself off from everybody as the Junta did in the 1960s. You like it or not, its a white man / yellow's man world. Even the yellow man by himself, is not enough to lift Myanmar from economic destitution. The Koreans, Thai-Chinese businessmen, Singaporeans, Chinese have all invested heavily in Myanmar, but unfortunately its not enough. Given a choice, I rather be under Western/Chinese tutelage, than a Burmese, most people here would feel the same. Being free of Western/Chinese domination when your country is mired in poverty, war, backwardness, isolation is not freedom, its just another form of oppression. * [497]Recommend 12 * [498]Report * [499]Permalink * [500]reply [501]moe aung [502]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 15th 2012 10:18 GMT Talk about freedom and independence for minorities and the rest. Perhaps you belong to that kind of spineless servile race that has convinced itself they'll continue to thrive in the Sino-American dominated New World Order. The freedom and prosperity of sweat shops and brothels until they find another source of cheap labour to exploit and raw materials to extract. Plenty of coke of both sorts for you, Bishr. I admire those minorities who fight back against chauvinism and oppression. The Rohingya have done it, so have the Tamils, whatever the outcome, whatever the agenda hidden or overt, however they evolved. That's why we are fighting to throw off the military yoke, and in a class struggle, unlike the fight for independence, it's neither literally nor metaphorically black and white. Ever heard of [503]La Pasionaria? We'll make our own way in the world, and no foreigners, white or coloured, are going to tell us what to do. And we will throw off the military yoke that oppresses all the myriad peoples of Burma including the Rohingya, outside help or no. Grow a spine, Bishr. * [504]Recommend 7 * [505]Report * [506]Permalink * [507]reply [508]guest-iojmwss [509]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 15:17 GMT Actually, according to most if not all accounts of Western media, it's the ordinary Burmese who are trying to oppress and murder the Rohingyas, and the military is, in general, doing its job to stop the bloodshed. But hey obviously Suu Kyi is way too rational and worldly to lead Burma. (Although even she is racist, which makes her acceptable in Burma I guess.) I'm instead hoping that an insanely nationalist person with no understanding of economics or common sense like you or tocharian will take over. Such an event would lead to very funny results. * [510]Recommend 9 * [511]Report * [512]Permalink * [513]reply [514]moe aung [515]in reply to guest-iojmwss Jul 15th 2012 16:21 GMT Guess you never had an inkling, Wise-ass, of the military elite in Burma stoking up racial hatred and instigating race riots whenever they need to [516]wriggle out of a crisis. The more fool you if you reckon the military stops bloodshed. Ever heard of the [517]anti-Chinese riots of 1967? ASSK or anyone like me would have none of that. Only a village idiot, who believes everything the Western media have to say, would think that 'an insanely nationalist person with no understanding of economics or common sense will take over' and 'such an event would lead to very funny results'. * [518]Recommend 4 * [519]Report * [520]Permalink * [521]reply [522]guest-iojmlii [523]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 17:11 GMT You remind me of Bashir al-Assad while tocharian reminds me of Robert Mugabe. Maybe you two, or someone like you two, can rule Burma together? You can alienate Western popular opinion by killing more Rohingyas and tocharian can alienate the global business community and Eastern popular opinion by seizing and "repatriating" all yellow people investments in Burma. Forget Suu Kyi, she makes way too much sense for Burma! She should go retire in Thailand and you and tocharian should rule Burma! * [524]Recommend 6 * [525]Report * [526]Permalink * [527]reply [528]Bismarck888 [529]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 18:35 GMT Only to end up working as maids in maid/hookers in Thailand. All that resistance and hostility and you get the same result. Instead of being oppressed by Yellow and white man, you are doing jobs that other brown people don't want. Few native Thais work as maids in Thailand, they only work for foreigners or rich Thai households. Most of the maid are Burmese and Cambodians. The fact is they are dictating the terms, whether you like it or not. Why do you think the Junta is trying to reform? Do you think they are doing it purely based on altruism. So essentially you are arguing that the sanctions are not important. * [530]Recommend 9 * [531]Report * [532]Permalink * [533]reply [534]moe aung [535]in reply to guest-iojmlii Jul 15th 2012 18:52 GMT I'm guessing popular opinion also means votes to you. That's the reason politicians care for popular opinion. [536]U Nu bought Chittagonian Bengali votes in the 1960 elections, so did [537]the USDP in 2010. Can't speak for toch, but popular struggle is what I believe in. Assad is a dynastic ruler, and Mugabe got corrupted by office. ASSK isn't going to retire any time soon but she'd better be less elitist and not lose touch with the masses. You can always do business with anyone on fair and mutually beneficial terms, and Burma should be looking to the outside world for trade and commerce, for investments, not looking inwards although self reliance/self sufficiency must be the principal goal. And it doesn't mean you let them walk all over you because they have the commercial/financial clout. Caveat emptor, definitely. * [538]Recommend 4 * [539]Report * [540]Permalink * [541]reply [542]Bismarck888 [543]in reply to moe aung Jul 15th 2012 19:37 GMT The world is different from what it was 30-40 years ago, countries like China, could gradually reform. Now the world is much more open, the standard of openness is much higher than it was 40 years ago. Reform members of the Junta, know that to attract foreign investment you have to match the likes of Thailand/Philippines in terms of Foreign investment law in a short amount of time. Myanmar is not China, it can't dictate terms, I am sorry its just not big enough. It will be a shock to the likes of you, how far the Junta will go eventually. You think democracy is a cure for Myanmar, it doubt it alone will solve the minority question. When multi-ethnic authoritarian states transition to democracy or lose control, uncertainty and a vacuum exist. Separatist forces will make a dash for independence. And there are alot of them in Myanmar. many of them armed. Really there are three alternatives 1) Independence 2) Suppressing them. 3) Granting them greater autonomy and allow them to have representation in the central government, reserve positions for them. Create a second chamber where all the ethnic minorities if they were united could essentially veto legislation. The problem with Myanmar, many of those ethnic groups already have a large degree of autonomy and many of them are defacto independent. Think that they will surrender that autonomy if the Bamars stopping killing them is naive. I just don't think Junta and the ASSK can make the ideological leap required. The problem with ASSK, she is in very much her father's daughter. All that ASSK has is Panglong Agreement, and it failed miserably shortly after it was agreed. Unfortunately, the situation in Myanmar is not like it was in the 1960s, its even worse. The problem is you think the world owe, Myanmar a living. So you perception of how much you will have to put on the bargaining table is ridiculously skewed. This applies to dealing with the outside world and dealing with the ethnic minorities. * [544]Recommend 8 * [545]Report * [546]Permalink * [547]reply [548]moe aung [549]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 15th 2012 20:36 GMT Rather obsessed by colour, aren't you, Bishr? What does it matter when deprivation and exploitation happen everywhere in this world? You can drink your ice cold Coke and still be a wage slave where you are. Gullible people may believe the military is carrying out 'reforms' for the good of the country, and not to line their own pockets and entrench military domination. Others you know who have their own agenda to laud their 'sincere efforts'. The sanctions debate has been done to death, it's time has come and gone. They cannot now stop the corporate juggernauts once they've got the green light by the political elites that depend on the support of Big Business which of course the West truly represents consistently throughout history. He who pays the piper.... Gunboat diplomacy may no longer be necessary when globalisation and free trade do the job today. Still they ain't past bombing and invading a country when it suits them. Still the world will see what the Burmese are made of even in a far from ideal exploitative environment. The Chinese invaded four times in the 18th C and each time they were repelled at the border. India never was regarded as a real threat until Chittagong under the British became the casus belli for the First Anglo-Burmese War. That's when the Rohingya cuckoo was hatched and deposited in the Arakan nest. The Thais still have nightmares about the Burmese, now not just invading but staying until things change back home. At least to her credit Thailand's hospitality for Burmese refugees and migrants alike (given the historical enmity, even as second class citizens discriminated against and exploited) stands in sharp contrast with Bangladesh's disgraceful treatment of its own kind. Makes you wonder if it is stereotypical Kalar behaviour, don't you think? * [550]Recommend 5 * [551]Report * [552]Permalink * [553]reply [554]moe aung [555]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 15th 2012 21:12 GMT Thought you were talking some sense first, then you contradict yourself. And why do you think it's worse now than in the 60s? Self isolation gave over to quasi-globalisation (after the game changing event of the 8888 Uprising) at least in the region plus Japan, Korea N&S and Russia, but without the West. This made the military stronger. The ceasefire deals with lucrative business opportunities for the armed ethnic groups that Khin Nyunt made possible in turn made those groups stronger, though on a much smaller smaller scale rather similar to the Sino-American detente post-Mao made China what it is today. You've created a monster inadvertently through your own selfish designs. Nobody owes us a living. You make your bed and you lie in it. No, Burma is not big enough, nowhere near China's position. But that wouldn't stop the generals from trying. Why are the British always trying to punch above their weight? They usually end up as sidekicks at best and poodles at worst to the Americans. Still world domination has been the white man's obsession, not the Asian's, not since [556]Genghis Khan. And I doubt it the generals' wish ever was to be China's poodle. * [557]Recommend 7 * [558]Report * [559]Permalink * [560]reply [561]Bismarck888 [562]in reply to moe aung Jul 16th 2012 5:04 GMT "And why do you think it's worse now than in the 60s? Self isolation gave over to quasi-globalisation (after the game changing event of the 8888 Uprising) at least in the region plus Japan, Korea N&S and Russia, but without the West. This made the military stronger. The ceasefire deals with lucrative business opportunities for the armed ethnic groups that Khin Nyunt made possible in turn made those groups stronger, though on a much smaller smaller scale rather similar to the Sino-American detente post-Mao made China what it is today. You've created a monster inadvertently through your own selfish designs." One has the benefit of hindsight with regards to China, but at the the US was more scared of the USSR at the time. It took a long time before the West imposed sanctions, in 1996 the West made up 60% of the foreign investment in Myanmar. So it was not just Japan, Asia, etc. it will take a long time before they are completely lifted. With the US its has to be repelled by Congress. Its not easy to repeal a Congressional Bill. The Executive Order by Obama is just piecemeal. More when I was talking about the situation now begin worse than the early 1960s, I am talking about with regard vis-a-vis the ethnic minorities. The ethnic minorities have had autonomy for so long, the goal post have move so far back, I don't think even even ASSK could do much. [563]http://www.himalmag.com/component/content/article/5077-lady-libert y-and-... [564]http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LK05Ae02.html I was in Indonesia during overthrow of Suharto, and Indonesia on nearly all levels in 1998 had a much easier road in transitioning to democracy than Myanmar. I think the biggest difference is Indonesia, during Sukarno and Suharto, they actively worked to build a country to include almost all religious and ethnic groups. The largest ethnic group, the Javanese only make up 41%. [565]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Indonesia In many ways the histories of Indonesian and Myanmar are similar, Sukarno and Aung San both "collaborated" with the Japanese in order to secure independence. The difference is Aung San's life was cut short, while Sukarno spent the next 15 years screwing and give long rambling speeches on a weekly basis, while doing some nation building on the side. * [566]Recommend 7 * [567]Report * [568]Permalink * [569]reply [570]moe aung [571]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 16th 2012 19:09 GMT Even if Burma's military elite emulates their Indonesian counterparts in securing their tenure of domination, Suharto was overthrown whereas the military yoke still needs to be overthrown in Burma. Burmese militarist chauvinists are tougher and more entrenched than ever, today trying and beginning to acquire the mantle of respectability and legitimacy colluded by Western Big Business interests through their own politicians who in turn put pressure on ASSK to change tack and collaborate with the generals' custom made 'democratisation process'. She had very little choice in the matter in any case after two decades in limbo. Sanction busting in the meantime through legal loopholes and third party countries as you know happened; some of the big guys like Total and Chevron never left. Of course it was never enough for the generals and not for altruistic reasons as you said. The Bamar constituting a two thirds majority of the population has always been an advantage in favour of the ruling elite who have shown very little interest so far in honouring Panglong or seeking a mutually acceptable political solution with any of the indigenous minorities let alone the Chittagonians quite beyond the pale. Instead they would rather cut deals with the leadership of each group offering business incentives (that's where the autonomy is, be it drug trafficking or even gun-running) effectively buying 'peace' for the duration, but never addressing the real issues of injustice and legitimate grievances, let alone genuine self determination. The point is Burma will never enjoy peace and progress, genuine development and prosperity (not some paltry trickle-down for the people while the ruling military-crony class gets exponentially richer than ever, thanks to international capital all joining in a feeding frenzy) until we have collectively thrown off the military yoke once and for all. * [572]Recommend 4 * [573]Report * [574]Permalink * [575]reply [576]Bismarck888 [577]in reply to moe aung Jul 19th 2012 5:40 GMT Throughout SEA and China, there is always a ruling elite. Whether its Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Burma, China. Suharto was overthrow, but the elites remain. The current President of Indonesia is a former general. Is not ASSK a part of the elite? The question is how well the ruling elite governs, good government often comes before clean government. Secondly, Myanmar has to go alot further than Panglong if its to remain one country. The Javanese in the 1920s were 48% of the population (shrunk because of lower relative birth rates, when Malay was adopted as Indonesia's national language by the revolutionaries. Malay is a second language for most Indonesians. Its a neutral language with little baggage. The 1950, the Indonesians castrated the local elite, by abolishing the use of titles. With one exception, all local sultans, royalty became ordinary citizens. For much of the period between 1950-1998, particularly during the Suharto period, most of the governors were former military men (almost all Javanese). When local direct elections were introduced about seven years ago, you start to see the emergence of the local elites. But its possible for a relative "nobody" to become mayor, like the current Mayor of Solo. Just removing the Junta is not going to solve much, because the Junta left the country divided and poor. In contrast, Indonesia's economic problem were largely acute in 1998, but Suharto had turned a dirt poor country into lower middle income country that was more or less united. There are some things, in my opinion, that can't be blamed on the Junta, like the ethnic minority problem. There were already bad blood between Bamar prior to the Junta taking over in 1962. The Junta made the situation worse, and unfortunately ASSK is not helping matters. NLD is primarily a Bamar organization, the ethnic minorities have their own block in Parliament. The worrying thing if there is full democracy, the NLD will win a large majority of the seats, the only non-NLD seats would be held by he minorities. What incentive does the NLD have for building coalitions? To be frank the most optimistic scenario is South Africa, ASSK wins the election, and governs the country for 8-10 years like Mandela. But the NLD is not ANC, they don't have as much contact with ethnic minorities in Myanmar. ASSK has spent so much time at loggerheads with the generals, and not building enough contacts with the minorities. Without solving the ethnic minority problems, the economic in Myanmar will never reach its full potential. Connecting a railway from Thailand to India, China to India through will dramatically change the pattern of trade / trade routes in Asia. * [578]Recommend 3 * [579]Report * [580]Permalink * [581]reply [582]moe aung [583]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 19th 2012 8:08 GMT Agreed. It takes two to tango but the lion's share of the blame has to be laid squarely at the door of the military junta. Elites need to consider the real national interest encompassing all groups, the minorities as well as the majority, and not as usual identify it only with their own class interest. The generals are strong on nationalism but weak on true patriotism for the greater good of the entire nation. Their patriotism stops with their own families and their cronies. They must go. The NLD is nothing like the ANC, not least in its total liberal dove commitment to non-violence plus the lack of mass organisation into taking effective mass action. Its problem will be the same as with the [584]AFPFL in office albeit its genesis entirely different. The AFPFL led by her father was more like the ANC and won us freedom from the colonial yoke. The question as you pointed out with Suharto's Indonesia is: is the elite happy with no more than the lion's share of the nation's wealth? This unfortunately for the country has not been the case with the Burmese military. * [585]Recommend 6 * [586]Report * [587]Permalink * [588]reply [589]Bismarck888 [590]in reply to moe aung Jul 20th 2012 3:31 GMT The difference is Suharto did not start out as bad, he developed the country, built roads, repaired irrigation system. Most of Indonesia's modern infrastructure was built during the Suharto period, particularly during the 1970-80s. Started in the mid 1980s he started to liberalize the economy and promote foreign investment. In the early 1980s there were already Western hotel chains, and soon followed by Western fast food chains shortly after. Suharto was Mickey Mouse compared to the Burmese Junta. As for the elites. Unlike most countries in SEA, the political and economic elites are divided along racial lines. The native control the bureaucracy, the economy is largely in the hands of Chinese Indonesian. Even after Suharto fell it has remained this way. There is a some good in this, in that it reduces the concentration of power. In terms of political and press freedom. Indonesia under Suharto is much more free than Vietnam, China, Myanmar and even Singapore. They had elections in which the ruling party won, but they least had elections. Toward the last ten years of his rule, people could buy the Economist, Times, Newsweek, WSJ in the big cities even with articles critical of his family and himself. That is why the comparisons to Indonesia in 1998 by Western journalist is laughable. Economically, Myanmar is where Indonesia was in the late 1970s. In politics, its basically in the same situation Indonesia was in the 1980s. Separatist movement was concentrated mainly in Aceh and East Timor, even Papua at the time was relatively peaceful. Western journalist had no problem travelling to Papia, unlike like now. * [591]Recommend 3 * [592]Report * [593]Permalink * [594]reply [595]moe aung [596]in reply to Bismarck888 Jul 20th 2012 13:10 GMT The difference is Suharto was America's baby to start with whereas the Burmese army has fought the CIA-backed KMT Chinese armies in eastern Burma as well as the Burmese communists. Burmese elites by and large are intensely nationalistic, so no such thing as the [597]Berkeley Boys in the army or the [598]Berkeley Mafia to advise economic policy. Remember Burma was a founding member of the [599]Bandung Conference Non-Aligned Movement. It shunned [600]SEATO and never joined the British Commonwealth after independence. So the similarity between the two countries stopped with the fall of Sukarno and the military seizing power with one fundamental difference in Indonesia namely a transition from the alleged Chinese sphere of influence to the US one. In the grand scheme of [601]the US containing communism in Asia with outstanding success in Indonesia without direct intervention as in Vietnam, it had been very comfortable with the wayward Burmese military elite since they were staunch anti-communists and they still are. Hence the US could always do business with Burma and would have done so had Ne Win not imposed enforced self isolation on the country. Ditching their bogus socialism after the 1988 Uprising and embracing the open market economy and globalisation launched them on the first steps of re-alignment with the West, but the pariah status they had deservedly achieved for themselves especially with the rise of ASSK as the democracy icon, and not least the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma, made them untouchable for the US. Now that the generals had changed tack and ASSK obliged to be coopted and collaborate, the ‘democratisation process’ has gathered momentum with Western capital poised to join in the feeding frenzy that has been going on since the country ‘opened up’ from the SLORC era post 1988. So you might say Burma has only just taken tentative steps in the direction of Suharto’s Indonesia. Burmese nationalism is something you have to witness to see how deeply visceral it is. This strong undercurrent of nationalism stands out in the generals’ approach to foreign investment compared with the Chinese one. The Burmese conundrum is a more complex one with more compounding factors than Indonesia. The $64,000 question is: are they going through a phase imperative to their real agenda of touting for more and more business in order to enrich themselves further and strengthen their grip on power, settling for a de facto one party state and showcasing pluralism? Or will they show their recidivist tendency once again whether in the face of increasingly confident popular forces testing their disciplined democracy or once they begin to lose their patience over the West 'dragging its feet'? * [602]Recommend 6 * [603]Report * [604]Permalink * [605]reply [606]guest-isnoowi Jul 12th 2012 20:00 GMT About South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia and Bamar terrorism: For millennia, the ethnic Bamar Burmese have viewed the ethnic minority in their country and the periphery as populated by barbarians and it is a mark of Bamar history to “eliminate”, “eradicate” and/or “Bamarize” them (bring them under Bamar cultural, economic and genetic control). Karen, Kachin and Shan were independent kingdoms until “recently” by historical standards. Of course, the Bamar are aware of ethnic minorities, but they will just dress up these “quaint people” as tourist attractions or simply just kill them (although Bamar leaders of course, will always wear Western suits). Bamar society is convinced of their cultural superiority (especially over those lazy backward neighbouring ethnic minorities), they have long-term political goals of Bamar ethnic dominance. The goal is to make the Burma Bamar only, and eventually make Southeast Asia and later the whole world Bamar. They might view the India and China as "worthy adversaries" that they have to compete against but ethnic minorities and Thais are not even looked upon by the Bamar as "equals". South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Thailand are strategic goals for the Bamar, which is why they are launching terrorist attacks to claim them. History ultimately is always written by the “conquerors”, but since the Bamar plan will probably not succeed, history is unlikely to be written by them. * [607]Recommend 34 * [608]Report * [609]Permalink * [610]reply [611]tocharian [612]in reply to guest-isnoowi Jul 12th 2012 20:31 GMT We report that the sinicisation of the periphery is proceeding at an alarming pace. If necessary, our glorious PLA (with the help of our proxy Wa army, the UWSA) is always ready to protect the dams, gas/oil pipeline, the naval base and other vital structures of "core interest" to the PRC in "Mianma". History will indeed be written by the winners! Long Live Chairman Mao! * [613]Recommend 34 * [614]Report * [615]Permalink * [616]reply [617]moe aung [618]in reply to guest-isnoowi Jul 13th 2012 12:07 GMT Too damned lazy even to recycle an argument properly, aren't we? Cut and paste jobs all over the place. Borrrring...zzzzz... * [619]Recommend 13 * [620]Report * [621]Permalink * [622]reply [623]happyfish18 [624]in reply to moe aung Jul 16th 2012 4:37 GMT Whatever the ethnics do to defend their rights, the land belong to their ancestors. If the MNCs are invited to exploit the land, they are entitled to a share of the revenue. Ethnic and cultural genocides often used as tool of the neo-Imperialists are conveniently ignored if the MNCs can prospered by trampling their rights. * [625]Recommend 5 * [626]Report * [627]Permalink * [628]reply [629]guest-isnoowi Jul 12th 2012 20:00 GMT The ethnic minorities of Myanmar form a good chunk of Burma and they could play a more important role, if the 50 minorities would put up a united stand against Bamar "hegemonial ambitions" (racist genocidal terrorism strategy). Most ethnic minority groups in Burma are rightfully worried ("Angst" is the word here) about the Bamar's bullying and threatening tactics to impose its will. The Bamars are using the classic "divide and conquer" strategy (that's why it is insisting on "bilateral talks" to push forward its preposterous genocidal activities against the Rohinyas, Karens, and many other ethnic groups). I think the Indian and Chinese roles might be more about giving Burmese ethnic minorities strong moral and political support and don't let the Bamars use the argument that Myanmar "belongs to them" where they can do whatever they want. * [630]Recommend 36 * [631]Report * [632]Permalink * [633]reply [634]tocharian [635]in reply to guest-isnoowi Jul 12th 2012 21:14 GMT I agree, the Chinese strategy is to break up "Myanmar". A "String of Pearls" in the Bay of Bengal is what China wants. They want to control the Indian Ocean (for their new aircraft carrier?) Perhaps they want to rename it South Tibetan Ocean! Arunachal Pradesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Kachin State are "claimed" by China as part of a Chinese province to be called "Nan Zhang". After the Paracel, Spratly and other islands in the "South-China Seas" it's now Ceylon and Kyaukphru in the "South-Tibetan Sea". I don't know what the Indians really think about it. * [636]Recommend 24 * [637]Report * [638]Permalink * [639]reply [640]guest-isnonin [641]in reply to tocharian Jul 12th 2012 21:55 GMT Actually the Chinese strategy is to partner with India, and all other groups of dark skinned people whom the Burmese are discriminating against, to form a "coalition of the willing" to liberate Myanmar and to rid the country of terrorists. You see the Burmese hate dark skinned people, and especially their dark skinned minorities, so it will be very easy to sign up different countries and ethnic groups within Burma for the cause. Free Myanmar from terrorist control! * [642]Recommend 35 * [643]Report * [644]Permalink * [645]reply [646]moe aung [647]in reply to guest-isnonin Jul 13th 2012 12:10 GMT You wish! Where have I heard this China-India partnership against the Burmese? Oh, you. Fat chance. * [648]Recommend 12 * [649]Report * [650]Permalink * [651]reply [652]guest-isnlooj Jul 12th 2012 19:56 GMT So if the Burmese/Kachin refuse to recognize the Rohinyas as Burmese citizens, even though the Rohinyas have been in Burma for many generations, why should the Chinese recognize Kachins as Chinese refugee/citizens? What goes around comes around? * [653]Recommend 42 * [654]Report * [655]Permalink * [656]reply [657]tocharian [658]in reply to guest-isnlooj Jul 12th 2012 20:06 GMT Whereas, Everyone in "Myanmar" welcomes their 2,000,000 strong Chinese cousins (tayoke paukphaws) to do lucrative business and exploit natural resources in Myanmar (or Mian-Dian) now therefore, Myanmarese (of the right ethnicity) demand that the UNHCR should take care of the 700,000 Rohingyas and ship them to the US (why not China?) * [659]Recommend 34 * [660]Report * [661]Permalink * [662]reply [663]guest-isnooow [664]in reply to tocharian Jul 12th 2012 20:33 GMT Open arms? What open arms? All I read are Burmese xenophobic posts toward the Rohinyas, Chinese and Karens all day on this website. You want to ship all the Rohinyas off to the USA and Karens off to Thailand? Why shouldn't China and the West (especially Canada!) ship all you terrorists back to Burma? * [665]Recommend 35 * [666]Report * [667]Permalink * [668]reply [669]moe aung [670]in reply to guest-isnlooj Jul 13th 2012 12:36 GMT Bangladesh does not want their own Chittagonian Bengalis back either. China has the [671]Jingpo as well as the [672]Dai and [673]Va (Wa) indigenous on their side of the border, so it's up to her. * [674]Recommend 17 * [675]Report * [676]Permalink * [677]reply [678]happyfish18 [679]in reply to moe aung Jul 16th 2012 4:27 GMT Unlike the illegal Banglas, the land on both sides of the border traditionally belong to the Wa, Why should the Wa be shipped out to China? They may want to unite the land with their brethen if they are oppressed further, It is best the Central government allow them to retain some share of the revenues from explioting the riches. * [680]Recommend 6 * [681]Report * [682]Permalink * [683]reply [684]moe aung [685]in reply to happyfish18 Jul 16th 2012 15:45 GMT Autonomy does mean self determination in running their own domestic affairs up to a point within the union. As for defense the Wa are considering the prospects of transforming their own troops to [686]a state-controlled militia. China definitely has a say in this and presumably Chinese pressure has led to the current scenario. An independent unified Wa state however seems unlikely. * [687]Recommend 6 * [688]Report * [689]Permalink * [690]reply [691]tocharian Jul 12th 2012 19:48 GMT Crouching Kachin, Hidden Chinese. * [692]Recommend 30 * [693]Report * [694]Permalink * [695]reply [696]happyfish18 Jul 12th 2012 15:56 GMT Unless the Kachins Independence army get a share of the electricity sale, it is unlikely that they would allow the proposed dam to flood their poppy fields which produce their only cash crop. Otherwise the people will continue the to move across the border into China to escape the Myanmarese offensive to clear the land. * [697]Recommend 26 * [698]Report * [699]Permalink * [700]reply [701]tocharian [702]in reply to happyfish18 Jul 12th 2012 20:18 GMT The Human Rights nonsense is just a red herring (only good for getting political asylum in the West) It seems like a lot of "Mianmese" (of course of the right ethnicity) are very willing to work as "Untermenschen" for the benefit of the Great Chinese Economic Leapfrog Forward. Who cares about the Irrawaddy Dolphins? Dam all the rivers in Mian-Dian to flood all those damn poppy fields (but not the gas/oil pipeline and the jade mines please) * [703]Recommend 30 * [704]Report * [705]Permalink * [706]reply [707]guest-isnnmaj [708]in reply to tocharian Jul 13th 2012 3:10 GMT Well the Kachins are trading opium for a more globally acceptable form of income. Why blame them for that? I guess the Bamars such as yourself can still supply the world with opium even after they stop... * [709]Recommend 23 * [710]Report * [711]Permalink * [712]reply [713]happyfish18 [714]in reply to guest-isnnmaj Jul 16th 2012 4:34 GMT All the ethnics want is a share of the revenue from their riches. It is best the government recognise that and not just to share between themselves and the incoming MNCs alone after freeing of sanction by the neo-Imperialists. Otherwise ethnic war is inevitable. * [715]Recommend 4 * [716]Report * [717]Permalink * [718]reply [719]Hektor Konomi Jul 12th 2012 14:14 GMT China won't let Myanmar easily out of its sphere of influence. * [720]Recommend 23 * [721]Report * [722]Permalink * [723]reply [724]moe aung Jul 12th 2012 9:01 GMT The Kachin community leader voiced a popular Burmese opinion over this whole elaborate show orchestrated by the military elite. “Even if [Mr Thein] Sein is serious about reforming this country, his power is limited; he can be removed at any time,” says a Kachin community leader in the northern city of Myitkyina, who refused to be identified. “How do we really know he’s not just being used by the military leaders to extract more money and prestige from the West?” When the West can hardly wait to join in the feeding frenzy making very approving noises over the 'reforms', why would China let up and back off what they already have ahead of the game? China nonetheless had better realise what is in its long term interests instead of taking a greedy hence necessarily myopic stance over its neighbour. It has so far been investing in a lasting animosity on the part of the entire Burmese nation. Upper Burma is simmering with resentment against the laobans - immigrant Chinese who have bought their way in - the slightest spark can trigger a repeat of the 1967 riots that could dwarf the sectarian violence in western Burma. Having said that the Burmese ruling elites of whatever political colour or composition are likely to maintain [725]good relations with their biggest and most important neighbour to the east. * [726]Recommend 19 * [727]Report * [728]Permalink * [729]reply [730]Devils Advocate_1 [731]in reply to moe aung Jul 13th 2012 5:59 GMT [Having said that the Burmese ruling elites of whatever political colour or composition are likely to maintain good relations with their biggest and most important neighbour to the east.] Guess you are not referring to China which is to Myanmar's north . * [732]Recommend 16 * [733]Report * [734]Permalink * [735]reply [736]moe aung [737]in reply to Devils Advocate_1 Jul 13th 2012 11:45 GMT Geography not your strong point then. It's always been known as our eastern neighbour (the sun rises from out of the Shan Plateau) though strictly speaking China is northeast and us southwest to it. * [738]Recommend 14 * [739]Report * [740]Permalink * [741]reply * [742]Comment (97) * [743]Print * [744]E-mail * [745]Permalink * [746]Reprints & permissions * About Banyan Analysis of Asian politics and culture, from our Banyan columnist and other correspondents. Named for a tree whose branches have sheltered great ideas [747]Follow us on Twitter @EconAsia [748]RSS feed Advertisement Explore trending topics Comments and tweets on popular topics Latest blog posts - All times are GMT [_0011_democracy-in-america.png] [749]Presidential power: When is a recess really a recess? 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Review our [97]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [98]cookies information for more details Change in Myanmar Follow my lead The government moves, and gets its rewards Jan 21st 2012 | SINGAPORE |[99]From the print edition * * [100]Tweet What a difference a year makes A LULL in Myanmar followed the excitement of secretary of state Hillary Clinton's historic visit to the country in early December, the first by a senior American official in half a century. Perhaps, some even wondered, this was the point at which the reform process initiated by Myanmar's president, Thein Sein, might come unstuck. Yet from the evidence of the past week, things are on track. On January 13th the government undertook the biggest yet in a series of releases of political prisoners: 302 according to the authorities, 287 according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma), a monitoring group in Thailand. Either way, it was a sizeable number and included many of the democratic opposition's most prominent figures. Some had spent two decades in jail for their part in the first student uprisings against the military government in 1988. Several, including Nilar Thein, Min Ko Naing and Htay Kywe, were leaders of the “88 Generation movement”. But student revolutionaries were not the only people set free. One surprise was the release from house arrest of Khin Nyunt, the former military junta's intelligence chief, and prime minister until he was ousted in 2004. All in all, the government's intentions to move from a military dictatorship to greater pluralism appear sincere. In this section * [101]It’s all right, Ma * [102]Lampooning the pols * [103]A nation of city slickers * [104]Child-snatchers * Follow my lead * [105]A game of chicken * [106]Award: James Astill [107]Reprints Related topics * [108]United States * [109]Thein Sein * [110]Alain Juppe * [111]Diplomacy * [112]Political policy The release of political prisoners has always been a foremost condition set by the United States before considering restoring full diplomatic relations. These were downgraded in 1988 and then all but broken off in the early 1990s as punishment for the government's brutal crackdowns on the democratic opposition. America has for some months pledged that releases of political prisoners will be rewarded by carefully calibrated measures to end Myanmar's isolation, something the government appears to crave. Sure enough, right after the prisoner release, America duly announced it had restored full diplomatic ties. It was, a senior American diplomat says, “a concrete response to a concrete sign of reform on the Burmese side.” Other countries have been moving too. On January 14th Norway announced that it would end its policy of discouraging investment in Myanmar. Australia is lifting financial and travel restrictions on certain Burmese citizens. More significantly still, France's foreign minister, Alain Juppé, said that the European Union will respond “positively” to the latest developments. The EU is currently reviewing its sanctions against Myanmar and seems likely to relax them over the next few months. Mr Juppé is the latest in a string of foreign dignitaries to visit Myanmar in the past few months, another sign of the diplomatic thaw. William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, preceded Mr Juppé by only a few days. These visitors are now given interviews with Mr Thein Sein, and all come away impressed by the seriousness of the government's attempts to change the country, even if there is still a long way to go. Even one of the regime's fiercest critics, Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the United States Senate, praised Mr Thein Sein as a “genuine reformer” after his own visit to the country this week. All these worthies meet the de facto leader of the opposition too, Aung San Suu Kyi. That boosts the domestic standing of an already wildly popular figure, key to the country's political development. Only a year ago Miss Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the past two decades under house arrest, was not even allowed to be mentioned in the government-controlled media. Today, her face smiles on magazine covers sold in the streets of the capital, Yangon. The president knows that the Western investment and recognition that he badly wants hang almost entirely on her say-so. Indeed, the next big test of the regime's will for reform comes with by-elections for parliament in early April. Miss Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, hitherto banned, has been legalised and will contest 40-odd seats. Ms Suu Kyi herself has just declared her candidacy for a seat on the edge of Yangon. Should these elections be deemed credible, and Miss Suu Kyi take up her seat in parliament, more international rewards for the regime will certainly follow. Yet there is much, much more goodwill that the government needs to show, including over political prisoners. Their remaining numbers, despite the latest release, are no lower than before the “Saffron revolution” and subsequent crackdown in 2007-08. Meanwhile, the army, which ran Burma from 1962 till last year, remains a force largely unto itself, as a look at Myanmar's tangled ethnic conflicts around the peripheries of the country suggests. These struggles have been a hugely destabilising factor in the country's history. Here, too, is cause for some optimism. On January 13th the government signed a ceasefire agreement with the Karen National Union. The Karen have been fighting the government ever since the country won independence from the British in 1948, making the conflict the world's longest-running civil war. It would thus be real progress if the Karen ceasefire led to a durable peace. Everyone acknowledges that if Myanmar really is to recover and prosper again, then these little wars will have to be brought to an end. Yet, as if to illustrate just how hard this will be, fighting has worsened in Kachin state in the north, a result of an army offensive against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) which has displaced 50,000 people, some fleeing into China. Talks are apparently taking place in China between the KIA and the Burmese government. Even when there are hopeful signs springing up everywhere, a peaceful Myanmar can never be taken for granted. [113]From the print edition: Asia * [114]Recommend 77 * * [115]Tweet * [116]Submit to reddit * * [117]View all comments (19) Related items TOPIC: [118]United States » * [119]Gun control: The gun control that works: no guns * [120]Guns in America: Broken hearted * [121]The Economist explains: The fiscal cliff: On the edge TOPIC: [122]Thein Sein » * [123]2013 in person: Thein Sein * [124]Myanmar’s parliament: Power grab * [125]Myanmar: Parallel tracks TOPIC: [126]Alain Juppe » * [127]France's foreign policy: Showing the strain * [128]France's war president: Sarkozy relaunched * [129]France's role in Libya: The welcome return of French diplomacy TOPIC: [130]Diplomacy » * [131]Internet regulation: A digital cold war? * [132]Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban: To the table * [133]Regulating the internet: Wicked group-edit More related topics: * [134]Political policy * [135]International relations * [136]Myanmar [137]Want more? 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Free exchange January 25th, 19:00 [pome_tile.png] [147]Israel's election: By the skin of his teeth Pomegranate January 25th, 18:10 [_0016_johnson.png] [148]Interpretation: We speak your language Johnson January 25th, 17:44 [_0004_babbage.png] [149]Mars rovers: Endless Opportunity Babbage January 25th, 17:34 [150]More from our blogs » Most popular * Recommended * Commented Recommended * [151]Dangerous shoals 1The Senkaku/Diaoyu islandsDangerous shoals * [152]2The World Economic Forum in Davos: Leaders without followers * [153]3Saudi Arabia: Forced into extinction * [154]4Revamping Skopje: Stones of contention * [155]5Aaron Swartz Commented * [156]Dangerous shoals 1The Senkaku/Diaoyu islandsDangerous shoals * [157]2Britain's drift from Europe: The Stone Raft? * [158]3Gun control: Round up the guns! 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By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [91]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [92]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [93]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [94]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [95]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [96]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [97]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [98]cookies information for more details Myanmar’s future in Asia Brave new world A reformed Myanmar could have a big effect on its neighbours Jun 2nd 2012 | BANGKOK AND YANGON |[99]From the print edition * * [100]Tweet * Aung San Suu Kyi greets migrant workers from Myanmar who live in Thailand's Samut Sakhon province Source: REUTERS * Before travelling to Thailand Ms Suu Kyi held talks with India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, in Yangon Source: EPA * Miss Suu Kyi waits for the plane after passing through immigration control at Yangon's airport. This is the first time in more than two decades that she has left Myanmar Source: REUTERS * Supporters of Miss Suu Kyi cheer upon her arrival at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport Source: AFP * Workers from Myanmar show portraits of Miss Suu Kyi and her father, the independence hero General Aung San, while waving the national flags of Thailand and Myanmar Source: AFP * Miss Suu Kyi is greeted by hundreds of her countrymen, most of them migrant workers Source: EPA * Miss Suu Kyi pledges to improve the rights of Myanmar's nationals living in Thailand Source: AFP * Cheering crowds listen to Miss Suu Kyi speak Source: AP * Miss Suu Kyi offered encouragement to impoverished migrants who have fled Myanmar Source: Getty Images * Children clap as Miss Suu Kyi arrives at a local shrimp market in Samut Sakhon province Source: AP * A migrant worker from Myanmar ties on a headband showing his national flag Source: Getty Images * Miss Suu Kyi talks with other delegates at the 21st World Economic Forum on East Asia Source: AFP * Thailand's deputy prime minister, Chalerm Yubamrung, shakes hands with Miss Suu Kyi at Government House in Bangkok Source: REUTERS * Miss Suu Kyi has received a rapturous welcome in Thailand Source: REUTERS THE visit of Aung San Suu Kyi to Thailand this week marked another extraordinary milestone in Myanmar's (so far) peaceful revolution. For the first time since 1988, when the opposition leader returned to her homeland from Britain to nurse her dying mother, she has felt confident enough to leave the country—in the expectation that she will be allowed back. Miss Suu Kyi met low-paid Burmese workers and refugees in the Thai provinces (see picture above) and was due to attend a World Economic Forum summit in the Thai capital, Bangkok; just the sort of stuff that any freshly minted MP might undertake. On the morning of May 29th, just before heading off to Thailand, she had met the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, who was on an official three-day visit to Myanmar. This was another momentous occasion. Mr Singh may have been late out of the blocks, trailing behind other leaders from Europe, America and Asia who came to Myanmar a while ago, but his visit was more significant than most. India is intimately bound up with Myanmar; the two countries share a 1,600-km (1,000-mile) border. Yet this was the first time for 25 years that an Indian prime minister had visited the country. It was another sign of how swiftly Myanmar's diplomatic and economic isolation is coming to an end. In this section * Brave new world * [101]The music stops * [102]Hard graft * [103]Gas goes boom * [104]Great Barrier Grief * [105]Smoke without fire? [106]Reprints Related topics * [107]South-East Asia * [108]Thailand * [109]Manmohan Singh * [110]Asia * [111]India All this, together with further internal economic reforms, is encouraging people to contemplate what a fully functioning Myanmar might one day look like—and how such a country might fit into a world that it turned its back on 50 years ago. Given its size and economic history, a revitalised Myanmar could make itself felt in the region. With 55m people, it is the fifth-most-populous member of the ten-strong Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Myanmar may be impoverished now, but in the 1930s it was the world's biggest exporter of rice. Cheap and increasingly cheerful In the 2010s and 2020s Myanmar could become an obvious destination for low-cost manufacturing, particularly of textiles. The country used to be an important hub for the garment industry, but as most of its exports went to America and Europe, sanctions choked off the trade. Some exporters have found new markets in Asia, but by one estimate the industry shed 80,000 jobs over the past decade. Now, relatively low wages and other costs might lure investors back—as might Myanmar's location. Government officials make much of how the country is an ideal place from which to sell into both China and India. If those jobs do return, then countries like Cambodia, which has carved out a niche for itself in the low-cost textile business, could suffer, as could Vietnam. But no country will have to adjust to the new reality more than Myanmar's immediate neighbour, Thailand. There is much speculation about how many of the 2m Burmese immigrants who work in low-wage jobs underpinning the Thai economy will return home. They may be unskilled by the standards of a sophisticated economy like Thailand's, but what they have learned overseas could make them invaluable to a revival of Myanmar's economy. Some predict trouble for Thailand if many Burmese return to Myanmar. However, Ammar Siamwalla, a respected Thai economist, argues that such an eventuality could spur Thai businesses, because they would have to improve productivity to compensate for the loss of unskilled labour. “Our employers have had it too easy with cheap labour,” he says. China is the country that has gained most from the Western absence from Myanmar in the past 15 years. The Chinese have poured about $27 billion into the country, much more than any other investor. They now dominate the oil, gas and minerals industries; indeed, many believe one of the reasons for Myanmar's government to change tack so dramatically was to end its over-dependence on China. But despite the new competition for Myanmar's favours, the Chinese surely remain quietly confident of their future there. China is so far ahead that it will take a long time for anyone else to catch up. Besides, the Chinese have not shown much interest in the sectors, including banking, education, tourism and food-processing, that attract Indian and Western businessmen. India, by contrast, has the most ground to make up, having neglected its eastern neighbour for years. And it could yet prove to be the country most affected by Myanmar's opening. Certainly, India can draw on the ties of history. Millions of Indians settled and prospered in what was then called Burma when it was part of Britain's vast Indian empire. Even after mass expulsions of Indians by Myanmar's new military governments in the 1960s, there are still thought to be up to 3m people of Indian descent in Myanmar. This is the sort of diaspora that India's government likes to tap for commercial opportunities elsewhere in South-East Asia. During his visit, Mr Singh encouraged them to “keep a place for India in their hearts”. Singh along The Indian prime minister was accompanied this week by an entourage of businessmen looking to sign deals in industries such as banking, oil, gas, paper and telecoms. Mr Singh and Myanmar's president, Thein Sein, signed 12 agreements to strengthen trade and diplomatic ties; Mr Singh wants bilateral trade to reach $5 billion by 2015. Optimists are hoping for a flourishing cross-border trade that might help to develop the whole of India's restless and impoverished north-east, cut off as it is from the rest of the country by India's partition in 1947. Mr Singh spoke this week of Myanmar becoming an “economic bridge” between South and South-East Asia. Bangladesh's 170m people should benefit as well. The country also shares a border with Myanmar and has enjoyed good relations with the military regime. A former Bangladeshi foreign minister, Iftekhar Chowdhury, argues that his country could help ease Myanmar back into the international arena through their shared membership of an obscure regional body, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation. Mr Chowdhury points out that this cumbersomely named grouping is the only one in the region that includes countries to both the west (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka) and east (Thailand) of Myanmar. And through Myanmar, he argues, “Bangladesh can link itself to China and South-East Asia.” That may or may not happen. But for the time being, at least, everyone sees the possibilities that could come from one of the greatest recent political transformations in South-East Asia. [112]From the print edition: Asia * [113]Recommend 80 * * [114]Tweet * [115]Submit to reddit * * [116]View all comments (90) Related items TOPIC: [117]South-East Asia » * [118]America in Asia: On the rocks, again * [119]Renavigating South-East Asia: Breaking the "Devil's neck" * [120]Asia: Connect more than the dots TOPIC: [121]Thailand » * [122]Thailand’s politics: Whatever happened to Thaksin? * [123]The Economist: Digital highlights, November 17th 2012 * [124]The world in figures: Countries: Thailand TOPIC: [125]Manmohan Singh » * [126]Banyan: On the prowl * [127]The world in figures: Countries: India * [128]Reforming welfare in India: Cash, with strings TOPIC: [129]Asia » * [130]Daily chart: Ill-informed * [131]Japan goes to the polls: The voters hold their noses... * [132]Banyan: The rocky road to revival More related topics: * [133]India * [134]Myanmar [135]Want more? 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Review our [97]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [98]cookies information for more details Myanmar A dangerous backdrop Aung San Suu Kyi travels to Europe as violence sours optimism at home Jun 16th 2012 | SINGAPORE |[99]From the print edition * * [100]Tweet * A Buddhist monk stands amid the debris of burned houses in Sittwe, the capital of Myanmar's western state of Rakhine Source: AP * An ethnic Rakhine man carries homemade weapons. Fighting between Buddhist Rakhines and Muslim Rohingyas has displaced members of both communities Source: REUTERS * Ethnic Rakhines draw water from a fire-truck to extinguish blazes set during the clashes Source: REUTERS * A soldier watches Muslims walk past burning houses as they look for shelter in Sittwe Source: AFP * Police stand guard over Muslims who have already fled their homes Source: AFP * Military personnel struggle to contain violence that has killed dozens of people and forced thousands to flee Source: AP * Locals take refuge in a monastery compound in Sittwe. Many said they were too afraid to sleep at night Source: AP * Police patrol the streets. The sectarian violence poses a major test for the government that took power last year Source: AFP * A Bangladeshi border guard keeps watch from a jetty on the Naf river. Bangladesh has been turning back boats filled with refugees from Myanmar Source: AFP * A Rohingya man who brought his family from Myanmar to Bangladesh pleads with local authorities. Human-rights groups have urged Bangladesh to keep the border open Source: AP ON MAY 28th a Buddhist woman in Myanmar's western state of Rakhine was raped and killed by three young Muslims as she returned home. Six days later, in apparent retaliation, a bus carrying Muslim pilgrims was stopped in the town of Taungkok by a mob of 300 Buddhist vigilantes. The passengers were herded off the vehicle and ten of them were clubbed to death. The tit-for-tat violence has since led to ethnic violence throughout Rakhine state. The killing, looting and house-burning have even engulfed the state capital of Sittwe. At least 21 people have been killed, many more injured and thousands of homes destroyed. In this section * [101]Less than allies, more than friends * A dangerous backdrop * [102]Let them eat tablets * [103]The unlikely Mr Noda * [104]Come clean * [105]Into the void [106]Reprints Related topics * [107]Europe * [108]Thein Sein * [109]Aung San Suu Kyi * [110]Politics * [111]Myanmar The frenzied attacks by both Buddhists and Muslims show just how combustible Myanmar's regions remain, even after the great strides made in the country's reform programme led by the president, Thein Sein. The violence also forms a dispiriting backdrop to the much-heralded visit to Europe by the opposition leader and freshly elected MP, Aung San Suu Kyi, who left Myanmar for Geneva on June 13th. Relations between the majority Buddhist population in Rakhine state and the minority Muslims (known as Rohingyas) have been on edge for decades. The Rohingyas originally came from Bengal to what was then Burma when both were parts of Britain's vast Indian empire. Even then they were hardly made to feel welcome, and discrimination against them continues to this day. Myanmar denies them citizenship, classifying them as illegal immigrants. Hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas have crossed into Bangladesh, fleeing racial and religious persecution not just at the hands of the Burmese authorities but by their supposed Burmese countrymen as well. Indeed, these latest killings did not so much prompt soulsearching among Burmans as a tirade of bigotry against the country's Rohingya minority. There were also fears that the violence could spill over into other areas, and even that it might retard progress on reform in the rest of the country. Mr Thein Sein declared a state of emergency in Rakhine state on June 10th, thus putting the army back in control there. The transfer of power in 2010 from the army to civilian authorities has been one of the main advances of Myanmar's political transition, so any step back, even if only in a distant corner, has worried reformers. Military hardliners, many of whom oppose Mr Thein Sein's reforms, argue that the army must continue to have a paramount role, as it is the only institution capable of holding Myanmar's shaky ethnic patchwork together. A state of emergency in Rakhine helps their cause. Even the reforming president warned that such ethnic and communal violence could damage democratisation and development in the whole country. Such concerns will also make Miss Suu Kyi's visit to Europe more difficult. Her trip to Thailand at the start of June marked the first time since 1988 that she had left Myanmar. She had worried before that, once abroad, she would not be allowed back in. The visit went well enough, but it was a low-key affair compared with the razzmatazz lined up for her in Europe. Miss Suu Kyi will travel to Norway to accept the Nobel Peace Prize that she was awarded in 1991. She will then address the combined Houses of Parliament in Britain before attending a concert in Ireland hosted by Bono, a rock star. She will be feted wherever she goes, and that alone is likely to stir jealousy and tension within Mr Thein Sein's government in Naypyidaw. But there is a more profound problem: the message that she is conveying to foreign audiences is fundamentally different from that of Myanmar's government. In Thailand she warned against “reckless optimism” about the changes in Myanmar, and advised investors to maintain a “healthy scepticism”. Those are wise words perhaps, but at odds with the message of many in the government. They are frantically trying to attract as many foreign investors to the country as quickly as possible, to compensate sceptical (and perhaps troublesome) hardliners with quick riches in exchange for a loss of political power. Ethnic violence in western Myanmar and the shadow of more to come will only make those tensions worse. [112]From the print edition: Asia * [113]Recommend 48 * * [114]Tweet * [115]Submit to reddit * * [116]View all comments (50) Related items TOPIC: [117]Europe » * [118]American growth vs. the world: At the top of an underperforming class * [119]The euro zone crisis: Growth problem * [120]The anthropocene: Atmospheric governance TOPIC: [121]Thein Sein » * [122]2013 in person: Thein Sein * [123]Myanmar’s parliament: Power grab * [124]Myanmar: Parallel tracks TOPIC: [125]Aung San Suu Kyi » * [126]Myanmar and America: Goodbye clenched fist, hello sweaty palm * [127]Politics this week * [128]Myanmar’s reforms: Introducing Naypyidology TOPIC: [129]Politics » * [130]Cliff talks: Relief in sight * [131]Gun control: First freedoms * [132]Israeli politics: Goodbye, for now More related topics: * [133]Myanmar * [134]World politics * [135]Asia-Pacific politics [136]Want more? 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What happened next... * Next in Britain X The Olympic opening ceremony Little Britain * Next in Britain X Family migration Sons and lovers Bit by bit, Britain is closing its borders to immigrants * Next in Britain X UK only Labour’s education divide An unruly classroom Labour is confusingly ambivalent about a policy of its own making * Next in Britain X UK only The Leveson inquiry The proprietor problem Regulating newspapers is easier than controlling their owners * Next in Britain X UK only Diaspora politics Spit and polish East European migrants are numerous, but not always popular * Next in Britain X UK only Britain’s Mittelstand The thriving middle class How Britain’s mid-sized businesses compare with their continental peers * Next in Britain X UK only Cycling Two wheels better More people are riding bikes, but cycling is stuck in a niche * Next in Britain X Bagehot George Osborne’s horrible spring Much criticism of the chancellor of the exchequer does not matter, but some he should heed * Next in Britain X Politics correspondent Vacancy * Next in International X Green growth Shoots, greens and leaves Rich countries prospered without worrying much about the environment. Poor and middle-income... * Next in Special report X The melting north The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, says James Astill. The retreating ice... * Next in Special report X The science Uncovering an ocean Much of the change in the Arctic is understood; little of it is reassuring * Next in Special report X Biodiversity Pity the copepod Some species will profit from a warmer Arctic; others may become extinct * Next in Special report X Politics Too much to fight over Arctic countries have decided to join hands and gorge on Arctic resources * Next in Special report X One man and his dogs The culture of the Inuit is threatened by climate change, but many are thriving * Next in Special report X Resources Hidden treasure High commodity prices, receding ice and better technology are spurring a hunt for Arctic resources * Next in Special report X Shipping Short and sharp Arctic sea routes have been a long-standing dream; now they are becoming a reality * Next in Special report X Climate change Cold comfort Arctic riches unlocked by global warming will not begin to make up for the costs of climate change * Next in Business X Raising capital online The new thundering herd Wanted: small sums of money to finance young companies. Click here to invest * Next in Business X Steelmaking in France Cross over Lorraine The closure of a steelmaking plant annoys the new president * Next in Business X Clear Channel and radio broadcasting Come stream with me Is there money in digital radio? * Next in Business X Aviation Ghost at the feast Airlines stand to lose heavily should the euro collapse * Next in Business X Women in management A word from your sponsor Time for women to stop being shrinking violets at work * Next in Business X German business Screwdrivers drawn A shareholder stand-off in the Black Forest * Next in Business X ICANN and top level domains Dot dash Businesses see opportunity in the opening up of internet domain names * Next in Business X Mobile marketing Square deal After many false starts, QR codes are finally taking off * Next in Business X Schumpeter Zen and the art of carmaking Japanese firms are known for craftsmanship. But they need showmanship, too * Next in Finance and economics X The cloud of uncertainty Dithering in the dark Quantifying the effect of political uncertainty on the global economy * Next in Finance and economics X Greece before the election Wait and flee Electoral uncertainty sends the economy into suspended animation * Next in Finance and economics X Bank downgrades Berated A ratings agency is poised to pounce * Next in Finance and economics X Japan’s capital markets Muddy waters The deep roots of insider trading * Next in Finance and economics X Chinese financial reform Free-range banks China’s banks gain a little more financial freedom * Next in Finance and economics X Buttonwood Promise now, bill your children Pension sums don’t add up * Next in Finance and economics X The global labour market United workers of the world Unbalanced skill levels could make the world more unequal * Next in Finance and economics X The economics of bank robbery More swagger than swag Bank robbery pays poorly * Next in Finance and economics X Free exchange Economic epidemiology Predicting financial contagion * Next in Finance and economics X Correction: Jed Rakoff * Next in Science and technology X The global environment Boundary conditions The idea of planet-wide environmental boundaries, beyond which humanity would go at its peril, is... * Next in Science and technology X Parasites A gene thief * Next in Science and technology X Cancer genetics Gene therapy Genetic mutations predict which cancers will respond to treatment * Next in Science and technology X Psychology A question of judgment Interviewers favour those seen first * Next in Books and arts X America and Israel Tough love A new book lowers the boom on some of Israel’s firmest friends * Next in Books and arts X Conundrums of science What is it for? How the 20th century influenced the evolution of science * Next in Books and arts X Sugar and slavery Gold in white and black * Next in Books and arts X English landscape Up hill, down dale Roads to everywhere * Next in Books and arts X James Joyce Happy Bloomsday For some, he was the greatest * Next in Books and arts X Pina Bausch Worldly gestures The borderless reach of dance * Next in Obituary X Andrew Huxley Sir Andrew Huxley, neurophysiologist, died on May 30th, aged 94 * Next in Economic and financial indicators X Output, prices and jobs * Next in Economic and financial indicators X Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates * Next in Economic and financial indicators X The Economist commodity-price index * Next in Economic and financial indicators X Capital flows to developing countries * Next in Economic and financial indicators X Markets * Print edition X Jun 16th 2012 Jun 23rd 2012 Jun 30th 2012 Jul 7th 2012 [137]From the print edition Jun 16th 2012 * [138]Comment (50) * [139]Print * [140]E-mail * [141]Reprints & permissions * Advertisement Latest blog posts - All times are GMT [_0011_democracy-in-america.png] [142]Presidential power: When is a recess really a recess? Democracy in America January 26th, 1:30 [_0013_free-exchange.png] [143]Recommended economics writing: Link exchange Free exchange January 25th, 22:05 [_0011_democracy-in-america.png] [144]Women in combat: See Jane shoot Democracy in America January 25th, 20:22 [_0013_free-exchange.png] [145]Prosecuting the financial crisis: Just who should we be blaming anyway? Free exchange January 25th, 19:00 [pome_tile.png] [146]Israel's election: By the skin of his teeth Pomegranate January 25th, 18:10 [_0016_johnson.png] [147]Interpretation: We speak your language Johnson January 25th, 17:44 [_0004_babbage.png] [148]Mars rovers: Endless Opportunity Babbage January 25th, 17:34 [149]More from our blogs » Most popular * Recommended * Commented Recommended * [150]Dangerous shoals 1The Senkaku/Diaoyu islandsDangerous shoals * [151]2The World Economic Forum in Davos: Leaders without followers * [152]3Saudi Arabia: Forced into extinction * [153]4Revamping Skopje: Stones of contention * [154]5Aaron Swartz Commented * [155]Dangerous shoals 1The Senkaku/Diaoyu islandsDangerous shoals * [156]2Britain's drift from Europe: The Stone Raft? * [157]3Gun control: Round up the guns! 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BY JARED BISSINGER | SEPTEMBER 18, 2012 [burma_timber_edited.jpg] "Burma is the next Asian Tiger." Don't bet on it. The economies of the [101]Asian Tigers don't look anything like Burma's, which is driven by primary industries such as natural gas, agriculture, timber, jade, and minerals. Together these industries made up over 80 percent of exports last year. They also dominate foreign investment: oil, gas and mining alone comprised almost[102] 90 percent of FDI over the last half decade. Burma's rapprochement with the West has brought even more interest in these sectors. The new government signed [103]deals for 10 oil and gas blocks earlier this year and is [104]offering 23 more. They're also awarding mining concessions and land for plantations. While there's also some interest in telecoms and banking, it's the extractive industries that are Burma's main draw for potential investors. [comment_bubble.gif] COMMENTS (0) SHARE: Twitter Reddit [105]Bookmark and Share More... The Asian Tigers, by contrast, were mostly resource-poor and relied on export-oriented manufacturing to develop. Their foreign direct investment (FDI) was mostly in manufacturing, not resources. They also developed in a much different international environment, one with far fewer competitive exporting countries. They sold their wares mostly to the high-consuming countries of the West, the same countries that are now grappling with the lingering effects of the global financial crisis. Unfortunately for Burma, countries that have relied on primary product exports tend to grow more slowly than countries like the Asian tigers due to unequal investment in other parts of the economy, a concept known as [106]Dutch Disease. Burma already suffers from this illness, and it will continue to hamper the country's development in the years ahead. The export of natural resources helped drive up the value of the country's currency, the kyat, from over 1400 to the U.S. dollar in 2007 to less than 700 in 2011 - a major obstacle for any reform effort. The continued overvaluation of the kyat -- along with high transaction costs, poor infrastructure, and a competitive international environment -- will all make it difficult for Burma to develop the manufacturing sector it needs to emulate the Tigers. "Burma needs foreign investment and it needs it now." It's complicated. The foreign investment that Burma will receive most of is the kind it needs the least: resource investment. This type of investment tends to create little direct employment. Its major benefit is the income it generates for the government. But the government of Burma, like so many others, isn't good at turning resource revenues into productive investments. Despite this, the prevailing attitude in the capital seems to be that "foreign investment equals development." That's [107]just not true. Different types of foreign investment have drastically different effects on the economy. Investment that transfers technology and brings know-how can be beneficial, but resource investment can be dangerous because it creates revenue by selling non-renewable assets. Why sell these assets so quickly if the government does not yet have the capacity to invest all the proceeds in productive ways? Burma's recent steps toward acceptance of the [108]Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which would help [109]fight corruption by providing for open public accounting of resource revenues, could help but transparency and sovereign wealth funds are no substitute for a balanced economy. Burma would actually be better off without a massive rush of primary sector investment. "Burma's problem is that it lacks capital." Yes, but... the fundamental problem isn't a lack of capital, but an economy that is inefficient at putting it to productive uses. The massive boom in property prices in Yangon and Mandalay over the past few years shows that Burma's elites have significant financial resources. An acre of land in either downtown easily goes for over $1 million, even higher than in Bangkok. While other factors have contributed to the rise, one of the major culprits is the lack of alternative investments. Banks aren't trusted and moving money overseas is difficult. So people store their wealth in fixed assets like property, gold, and gems. At the same time, there is a dire lack of credit in the countryside. Those who don't have collateral must rely on informal loans with interest of 10 percent per month. The state agricultural bank lends farmers barely a third of what they need to cultivate their land. Private banks are prohibited from lending to farmers at all -- one of many needless restrictions inherited from socialist days past. The result is a system in which capital can't get to the rural sector, and more money will not fix this core problem. "Sanctions were the cause of Burma's economic problems." Not if you look closely. Sanctions did affect Burma's economy, but they were not the biggest problem faced by the private sector. Talk to businesspeople in Yangon and Mandalay and they'll tell you that the biggest challenges they've dealt with over the years were electricity supply, political instability, and corruption, all factors well within the government's control. Sanctions were the next biggest obstacle because of the additional costs imposed by the U.S. [110]financial services ban and the loss of the large American export market. Many other factors, including poor infrastructure, arbitrary decision-making, and the lack of an impartial judiciary also made business in Burma costly. For most companies, sanctions were a modest part of the challenges of doing business. Sanctions were originally conceived as a response to human rights problems in Burma, but now they've outlived their usefulness. The biggest and best-connected companies, which sanctions are supposed to target, have the financial resources and international connections to circumvent them. Those without these resources -- the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are so vital for Burma's development -- bear the brunt of sanctions. Sanctions weren't the major cause of Burma's economic problems, but keeping them will not help address human rights concerns and will hinder reforms and development. "Old ways of doing business are quickly changing." Unfortunately, no. While Burma's political structure has changed, the politics of the economy remains much the same. The International Crisis Group (ICG) argued in a July [111]report that "the system of monopolies and access to licenses, permits and contracts is being dismantled," but the evidence suggests more nuanced changes. Though ministries are professionalizing and opening to outsiders, navigating bureaucracy and accessing decision makers still depends intensely on personal connections. For example, foreigners investing in mining must now partner with one of 38 companies on a government approved list. The same applies for oil and gas, though the list is reportedly around 60. While some listed companies have expertise, others are simply beneficiaries of a needless intrusion into the decisions of private companies. Getting on those lists, and doing successful business in general, is still very much about who you know. Recently privatized state-owned enterprises are mostly falling into the hands of the urban elite in Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw, people who have the connections and capital. Since the country lacks a strong taxation regime, Burma's people won't even enjoy much additional tax revenue from the newly privatized companies. Contrary to the stated goal of promoting the country's development, many of the reforms are in fact enabling the "oligarch-ization" of Burma. The old ways of doing business will influence Burma's economic trajectory for decades, much as they have elsewhere in Asia. "Dramatic reforms are happening, and more are inevitable." Not as much as you might think.Naypyidaw has taken some important steps to liberalize the economy, such as [112]exchange rate reforms and loosening import regulations. But on the whole, it's the political reforms that have been more dramatic. New legislation on the economy has left much to be desired. The battle over the economy is not between "hardliners" and "reformers." Very few people in Burma, even those that benefited from the previous system, look back on the past with nostalgia. Instead, the conflict is over the shape of the new economic order. On one side are businesses that would benefit from opening up to international markets, and consumers who have long been limited to overpriced and substandard goods. On the other are those who built their businesses under the previous economic order, and who could lose them if the country opens up too much or too quickly. The battle isn't over whether to reform but how to do it and who will benefit. The debate over a new foreign investment law, which was passed earlier this month by parliament but appears [113]unlikely to be approved by President Thein Sein, shows the contending forces at work. As part of the government's bid to attract foreign investment quickly and in large amounts, preliminary drafts of the law contained numerous concessions. As debate progressed, local businesses pushed back. They demanded numerous restrictions, including a $5 million minimum for investors, restrictions on "low technology industries," and a limit of 49 percent ownership for many foreign partners in joint ventures. The final version of the law represented a hard-fought compromise that met with little approval from foreign investors. Missing from the agenda are some of the most urgently needed economic reforms, especially in agriculture, where 70 percent of Burma's people work. Two of the most prominent agricultural reforms, both relating to land, have been [114]widely criticized for facilitating corporate land grabs and creating politicized land management committees. This legislation has done to little help Burma's average farmers. "Reforms will help reduce poverty and bring broad-based economic development." Wrong. That the current economic reform program will bring broad-based development is the greatest myth of them all. The reforms to date are a mixed bag, with positive ones such as currency liberalization mixed with poorly designed moves like the new land laws. Reforms of limited benefit for broad-based development, such as the new laws on foreign direct investment or Special Economic Zones (SEZ), are crowding out debate on more important issues. Burma's leaders have yet to adequately address the most pressing concern for the countryside, which is that most farmers, in this overwhelmingly rural country, [115]can't make money farming. The cost of inputs has risen with inflation while prices have dropped due to an appreciating exchange rate. The result is widespread indebtedness. The public goods needed to improve productivity and [116]farm gate prices, such as good roads, ports, irrigation, and communication, are lacking. Instead of fixing the core problems, the government is allowing elites to set the agenda. Contract farming is on the rise, which allows companies with privileged access to lend credit and inputs to farmers, who have no recourse to any alternatives. The fact that some agricultural businesses reap big profits while farmer's lose money vividly illustrates the distortions that affect Burma's economy. Fixing the problems of the rural economy requires a [117]long-term strategy to increase worker productivity, build a viable manufacturing sector, and direct resource revenues into productive investments (especially infrastructure). This should not entail offering foreign investors myriad tax breaks, which will only starve the government of revenue. Broad-based development will come only by understanding and addressing the problems that affect Burma's masses. There's still a very long way to go. [118]Save big when you subscribe to FP. Photo by China Photos/Stringer/Getty Images [arr-indent.gif] SUBJECTS: [119]DEVELOPMENT, [120]ECONOMICS, [121]DEMOCRACY LAB, [122]SOUTHEAST ASIA Jared Bissinger is a Ph.D. candidate at [123]Macquarie University in Sydney and a former fellow at the [124]National Bureau of Asian Research. [you_might_like.gif] [featured_today_fp.gif] * [125]What India Could Learn from Obama's Newtown Response * [126]Israeli Elections and Flying Turnips: The Best Photos of the Week * [127]Venezuela's in Trouble: Time to Cry Assassination Plot * [128]Why Everyone's Wrong About Assad's Zombie Gas [129][headerFACEBOOK.png] Most Viewed [130]Most Commented Today [131]This Week Most Viewed [132]Most Commented [133]Today This Week [134]Most Viewed Most Commented Today [135]This Week [136]Most Viewed Most Commented [137]Today This Week [cover_story.gif] [138][flashp-hed.jpg] * [139]STEPHEN M. 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capital For the social impacts of international investment in Burma to be positive, companies need to align their interventions with international norms * [84]Share * [85]Tweet this * * * [86]Email * [87]John Morrison * + [88]John Morrison + [89]Guardian Professional, Tuesday 31 July 2012 15.47 BST * [90]Jump to comments (…) Myanmar's Fishing Industry Burmese women take a break while working at the fish Annawa fish market and seaport. Photograph: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images Burma represents a test of much of what has been written about the [91]social impact of business, and piloted elsewhere. Given the history of sanctions which until recently kept western capital out of the country, the social impact of this capital in Burma will be tangible. There will be no place in Burma for self-promoting corporate social responsibility (CSR) or cultural relativism. Instead companies will need to align their social interventions to international norms. Burma is also a country where the human rights case for any business should be self-evident. If early conclusions about whether the social impacts of international investment are to be positive, then the work of business, civil society, governments and trade unions needs to start now. Burma's president Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi have both called for investment into Burma. They recognise that business needs to be sustainable in both social and environmental terms. These are encouraging commitments. Now they need to be translated into tangible actions. For this investment to be responsible, it must deliver value both for investors and the people of Burma, operate with respect for the rule of law and be accountable for its actions and impacts. A key measure of social sustainability in Burma will be the alignment of investment with international standards, such as those of the United Nations, International Labour Organisation as well as multi-stakeholder approaches such as the [92]Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The [93]United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, endorsed unanimously by the UN Human Rights Council in June 2011, are crucial to getting investment in Burma right. Both the [94]European Union and the [95]United States have made direct reference to the Guiding Principles when announcing their respective easing of sanctions. The US government has included the Guiding Principles as part of its new reporting requirements for US businesses investing in Burma. Moreover, the UN framework is a key part of the updated [96]OECD Guidelines on Multinational Enterprises and other initiatives such as the [97]ISO 26,000 social responsibility standard adopted last year. For the UN Guiding Principles to help in making responsible business a reality, they must be applied in the day-to-day life of business activity. This means companies should undertake ongoing human rights due diligence processes â to know the risks and to take all actions possible to minimise any negative impacts of business activity. Critical questions still requiring stronger consensus in order to move in this direction include how much knowledge a company can be expected to have, both in terms of impacts of its actions, and the environment in which it operates. Another important question concerns levels of transparency â how much disclosure and reporting of social impacts is necessary when operating in countries experiencing the challenges currently faced by Burma? For many international companies considering investments in Burma, a huge challenge is how they will select their local business partners. Getting this right is critical to avoiding relationships with local businesses accused of having benefited from cronyism, that has resulted in Burma being rated poorly by leading corruption indices. During the time when EU and the US sanctions were in force, lists were compiled of individuals and companies viewed as being linked to government repression. However, in the political context of Burma during the sanctions years, many local businesses had no choice but to work with the government or the military. Many benefited from such ties. This places enormous importance not just on the due diligence investors need to undertake before selecting business partners, but also the accountability and transparency of these relationships over the months and years ahead. International companies that think they can be secretive about their relationships in Burma, beyond the threshold justifiable by normal competitive requirements, are gravely mistaken and will be increasing the risk associated with their investments and operations. This is equally true in the context of other key challenges ahead for the country, such as issues relating to land appropriation and use, discrimination, labour rights, conflict and resource allocation. The [98]Institute for Human Rights and Business (IHRB) is working with the [99]Danish Institute for Human Rights on a new initiative to develop a resource centre with partners in Burma to help business, government, civil society and trade unions apply the UN Guiding Principles and other relevant international standards to the many challenges ahead. That includes learning from how difficult questions relating to corporate responsibility have been addressed across a broad range of business sectors and in different parts of the world. The bottom line is that all actors in Burma need to be accountable for their human rights impacts. It is equally important that people have access to adequate remedies when rights abuses do occur. These points are critical in shaping a culture of sustainable investment in the country. John Morrison is executive director of the [100]Institute for Human Rights and Business This content is brought to you by [101]Guardian Professional. 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http://www.facebook.com/dialog/feed?app_id=180444840287&link=http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/burma-first-steps-investment-western-capital&display=popup&redirect_uri=http://static-serve.appspot.com/static/facebook-share/callback.html&show_error=false 217. http://twitter.com/share Liens cachés : 219. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/companies-can-rewrite-burmas-story#start-of-comments 220. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/partner-zone-anglo-american 221. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/partner-zone-anglo-american 222. http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/4573250/chief-adviser-forests/?INTCMP=dis_84 223. http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardian-professional [BUTTON Input] (not implemented)_____ Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:18 PM GMT Burma’s Economy: The Next Big Story in Asia By Chris Mayer "It's like Thailand was 50 years ago," Alexandre de Lesseps told me. We were talking about the next big emerging market to bloom in Asia. It may surprise you, but it is one heck of a story... and opportunity. It also fits our grand thesis on [1]emerging markets and is the subject of my upcoming book, World Right Side Up. The country I'm talking about is Myanmar (or Burma, as most people still seem to call it). I caught up with Alex over the holidays because I remembered his infectious enthusiasm for the country. He is an accomplished investor of frontier markets, those half-forgotten realms on the fringe of the investing world. Alex has been investing in Burma for 15 years as a partner at SPA Capital Partners, working with Serge Pun & Associates. The latter is an investment holding company that has been in Burma since '91. (And yes, Alex is the great-great- grandson of Ferdinand de Lesseps, the French developer of the Suez Canal, who also oversaw the early construction of the Panama Canal.) I first met Alex at a dinner at a pleasant riverside restaurant in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. My friend Doug Clayton of Leopard Capital arranged the dinner. (We'll hear from Doug in a bit.) I was in the middle of a swing through Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. When I asked investors in these places what the next big story to emerge from Southeast Asia would be, the answer was always the same: Burma. Burma is beginning, at last, to thaw. The grip of the military junta is loosening, by its own hand. ("This is very important," Alex said. "The decision to change the country came from within. It speaks to the depth and substance of the changes taking place.") The market is beginning to open up. Political prisoners have been released. Press censorship rules have been relaxed. Things are happening quickly. Even Hillary Clinton visited late last year, the first US Secretary of State to do so in 50 years. Alex told me he's never seen anything like it in all his years in Burma. The hotels are full. Many are already sold-out for the first few months of the year. And Burma gets more and more mainstream attention nearly every week. Why is Burma important? In short, it has everything the world craves - in size. The Wall Street Journal reported: "Myanmar's potential is too great for some investors to ignore. One of the last, large frontier markets in Asia, it is rich in oil, gas, timber and gems and has the potential to be a major rice and seafood exporter." Estimates of [2]natural gas reserves, for instance, would make Burmese fields the 10th largest in the world. Labour costs are low, which could support basic manufacturing. Doug Clayton visited Rangoon (Yangon) and wrote about it in his newsletter. Doug notes that Burma has the largest landmass in mainland Southeast Asia and big fertile river deltas. It has 1,240 miles of uninterrupted coastline, deep-water port sites on the strategic Indian Ocean, plus 600 little-used tropical islands. As home to more than 2,000 pagodas and temples and miles of pristine beaches, Burma could support a larger tourism business. "From my own wanderings in both countries," Doug concludes, "I would rate Myanmar's long-term tourism potential just as strong as Thailand's - which draws 14 million tourists a year, versus Myanmar's 300,000." The comparison with Thailand is hard to miss, and Doug pursues it further. "To comprehend Myanmar's potential, look over the border at Thailand, a country of comparable size and population," Doug continues. "Around the time of World War II, colonial Burma's economy and development surpassed Thailand's." Since then, though, Thailand's economy is now 10 times bigger than Myanmar's. Doug reckons that "the gap between these historical peers seems likely to narrow as Myanmar introduces a political system more similar to Thailand's." This is essentially the motive force behind the "world right side up" idea - this narrowing of historically anomalous large gaps in development to a world more in tune with longer historical experience (and hence, right side up). One of the books I read over the holidays was Thant Myint-U's Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia. Thant continues the theme. Rangoon was once the rich capital of British Burma. It was an exporter of rice, timber and oil. "By the late 1920s," Thant writes, "Rangoon exceeded New York as the greatest immigrant port in the world... Rangoon became a hub for all of Asia." By the 1930s, Burma's economy, on a per capita basis, was at least twice that of China's. Today, China's is about six times as great. That is a gap that ought to narrow as Burma opens up. Simple geography also anchors Burma's importance. It sits between China and India like a hinge. It is a big country, the size of France, with 60 million people. Thant makes Burma's unique position clear. If you draw a 700-mile radius around Mandalay, Burma's second-largest city, you encompass a population of 700 million people - nearly one in 10 of all the people on the planet. It is a natural crossroads. Already, work has begun on a network of pipelines and highways and railways - all with Burma as the bridge to the two potentially biggest markets on earth, China and India. "There will be opportunities to invest," Alex told me. Indeed, he's already seeing investors line up. In the next several months, new funds will launch. The Tokyo Stock Exchange announced it would help Myanmar develop its stock market. Many companies are already trying to elbow their way in Burma. These are mostly Asian companies, as they are not covered by the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe. But some Western companies are already making inroads. Unilever sells soap and soup. Caterpillar, too, has a business there. And a few are still there as exceptions to the sanctions, such as the French oil giant Total. Overwhelmingly, the foreign investment has focused on [3]oil and gas, mining and power. And [4]Burma's biggest investor has been China. (One Chinese businessman quoted in Thant's book says, "I hope the sanctions last forever." And why not? It keeps out the competition.) There is plenty of opportunity in basic things like cement and automobiles and hotels. And it's all just beginning. We'll keep an eye on Burma as opportunities open up. It's an exciting time to be an investor as the world turns right side up. Regards, Chris Mayer for The Daily Reckoning Australia Chris Mayer is the editor of US-based newsletters Capital & Crisis and Mayer's Special Situations. This article originally appeared in [5]The Daily Reckoning USA Références 1. http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/when-emerging-markets-shape-the-developed-world/2012/02/08/ 2. http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/when-emerging-markets-shape-the-developed-world/2012/02/08/ 3. http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120216/global-oil-chokepoints-and-the-new-silk-road-for-energy.html 4. http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120216/global-oil-chokepoints-and-the-new-silk-road-for-energy.html 5. http://dailyreckoning.com/the-next-big-story-in-asia/ [BUTTON Input] (not implemented)_____ Friday, June 1, 2012 3:27 PM GMT Suu Kyi Pleas For Foreign Investment Into Myanmar, But Warns Against Excessive Optimism Over Reforms By Palash R. Ghosh Aung San Suu Kyi warned the world against expecting too much from the pace of democratic reforms in her native Myanmar (also known as Burma). In a much-anticipated speech at the World Economic Forum in Bangkok, Thailand, the newly-elected parliamentarian said there was already too much "reckless optimism" over a number of moderate reforms that the nominally civilian government of Myanmar has enacted over the past two years. She cited, among other things, that the Burmese parliament was far from a democratic body, that there existed no independent judiciary in the country and that the military (which ruled the country with an iron hand for fifty years) still wields a significant amount of power and may not embrace further democratic reforms. However, she urged foreign investors to invest in Myanmar in order to provide jobs for the young and alleviate high rates of poverty. But even that sentiment was tempered by her fears that an influx of foreign money might serve to exacerbate inequality and spawn more corruption. "Investors in Burma, please be warned - even the best investment law would be of no use whatsoever if there is no court clean enough and independent enough to be able to administer these laws justly," she said. "Good laws already exist in Burma, but we do not have a clean and independent judicial system. Unless we have such a system it is no use having the best laws in the world." She added: ''I am here not to tell you what to do but to tell you what we need. There is a great need for basic skills. We need vocational training much more than higher education. We want [foreign investments] to mean jobs. Please think deeply for us. We don't want investment to mean further corruption. and greater inequality." Suu Kyi also said she hopes for the day when Burma becomes "part of that more prosperous, peaceful world." The Burmese icon has dominated the summit with the sheer weight of her star power. Prior to her formal appearance at the summit, she made a splash by ditching her luxurious Bangkok hotel in order to meet with poor Burmese migrants in a humble suburb south of the gleaming city and promised to help them. Next month, Suu Kyi will voyage to Europe, where she is expected to make a speech in Geneva and also journey to Oslo, Norway, to formally accept the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded in absentia in 1991. She is also expected to make stops in Paris, Ireland and the UK, where she has family members. * [shareicon_digg.gif] [1]Digg * [shareicon_deli.gif] [2]Del.icio.us * [shareicon_newsvine.gif] [3]Newsvine * [shareicon_feedback.gif] [4]Facebook * [shareicon_sh.gif] [5]Stumbleupon [login_bg_top.gif] Log in to your IBTimes Account [6]close ID ____________________ Password ____________________ [login_bt_login.gif]-Submit [7]IBTimes UK ____________________ [bt_search_main.gif]-Submit * | [8]Sign In | [9]Register For Free * HOME * MARKET DATA * COMPANIES * FOREX * COMMODITIES * GOLD * CFD CENTRE * BROKER CENTRE [arr_w1.gif] [10]ibtimes.com QUICK LINKS : [11]World | [12]UK | [13]Economy | [14]Global Markets | [15]Technology | [16]Education | [17]Green | [18]Health | [19]Travel | [20]Sports U.S. to demand disclosures as it eases Myanmar sanctions [0218_bg_top.gif] * [21]Comments Comment 0 * [22]Rating [icon_rate_small0.gif] Unrated (0) * [23]EMAIL EMAIL * [24]PRINT PRINT * [25]RSS RSS * [26]SHARE SHARE * TEXT SIZE: [27]A [28]A [29]A [0218_bg_bottom.gif] By Arshad Mohammed 11 July 2012 @ 05:48 pm BST VIENTIANE - The United States on Wednesday eased sanctions to allow its companies to invest in and provide financial services to Myanmar but will require them to make detailed disclosures about their dealings, the White House said. The unusual reporting requirement aims to promote greater transparency in the country - among the world's most corrupt according to watchdog Transparency International - as it emerges from nearly half century of military rule. In a development first reported by Reuters early on Wednesday, President Barack Obama directed the U.S. Treasury Department to issue two general licenses, one giving general permission for investment in Myanmar and the other allowing financial services. "Easing sanctions is a strong signal of our support for reform, and will provide immediate incentives for reformers and significant benefits to the people of Burma," Obama said, using the traditional name of the Southeast Asian country. But the president added that the unfinished state of reforms left the United States "deeply concerned about the lack of transparency in Burma's investment environment and the military's role in the economy." "U.S. companies will be asked to report on their activities in line with international corporate governance standards," Obama added. The rules require U.S. individuals and entities making new investments of more than $500,000 to submit annual reports to the State Department on issues such as human rights, workers' rights and environmental stewardship, the department said. Annual payments exceeding $10,000 made to Myanmar government entities including state-owned enterprises must also be reported, while those investing in the Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise must notify the State Department within 60 days. "The purpose of the public report is to promote greater transparency and encourage civil society to partner with our companies toward responsible investment," the departments of State and Treasury said in a fact sheet explaining the policies. White House spokesman Tommy Vietor told reporters the new investment "does not authorize investment with Burmese Ministry of Defence, state or non-state armed groups, or entities owned by the foregoing." NO REWARDS FOR ABUSERS The moves fulfil a May 17 announcement made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to ease U.S. sanctions on investment and financial services in recognition of Myanmar's startling political reforms over the last 15 months. The Obama administration left the sanctions laws on the books, giving Washington leverage should Myanmar start to backslide on its reforms. Obama added a new Executive Order expanding sanctions to cover "those who undermine the reform process, engage in human rights abuses, contribute to ethnic conflict, or participate in military trade with North Korea," he said. This order underscored that "individuals who continue to engage in abusive, corrupt, or destabilizing behaviour going forward will not reap the rewards of reform," said Obama. Clarification of the rules for investment could prompt a rush of U.S. companies into the country. Coca-Cola Co, for instance, said last month it wanted to work in Myanmar as soon as the government allowed it. It is one of just three countries in the world where the soft drinks giant does not operate. The other two are North Korea and Cuba. Conglomerate General Electric Co has also expressed strong interest in the country, particularly in the healthcare and electricity sectors. In the face of street protests over power outages, Myanmar's government promised in May it would buy two 25-megawatt gas turbines from the company. Sanctions have also been suspended or lifted by other developed countries, including Canada, Australia, Japan and European Union states. The British government's trade promotion body, UK Trade & Investment, opened an office in Myanmar's commercial capital, Yangon, on Wednesday. ACTIVIST GROUPS REMAIN WORRIED Myanmar's quasi-civilian government took office in March 2011 and has started overhauling its economy, easing media censorship, legalizing trade unions and protests and freeing political prisoners. The United States has responded with diplomatic and economic gestures, sending Clinton to Myanmar last year as the first U.S. secretary of state to visit in more than 50 years, as well as tentatively easing sanctions this year. One source said the long delay between Clinton making her announcement and the Treasury issuing the licenses was partly because of a debate among officials over how much disclosure to require. In a land of widespread poverty but rich in timber, gems, and gas, Myanmar's crony capitalists - a clique of fewer than 20 families - grew rich with help from Than Shwe, a military dictator who ruled from 1992 until he stepped aside last year. "The central point of all of this is to focus on transparency, the theory being that the more information the greater the incentive to comply with responsible norms and practices," the source said. This source said that some disclosures would be to the public while others would be in confidence to the U.S. government to protect proprietary business information. The State Department said it would announce a public comment period for the private sector to study the reporting requirements and to flag any problems. Human rights groups and exiled Burmese democracy activists remained sceptical that military officials and army-linked businessmen could be prevented from profiting from U.S. deals. "The U.S. government has acknowledged that there are many unacceptable business partners in Burma. However, the government has failed in its responsibility to clarify who these actors are, or to prohibit U.S. companies from conducting business with these problematic entities," said a joint statement by the U.S. Campaign For Burma and three other advocacy groups. The latest step in easing sanctions came a day after Derek Mitchell, an Asia expert with long think tank and Pentagon experience, presented his credentials as the first U.S. ambassador to the country in decades. (Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Doug Palmer and Paul Eckert in Washington; Editing by Jonathan Thatcher, Cynthia Osterman and Jackie Frank) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters UK. All rights reserved. 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Big questions surround the far-reaching plans by Thailand's largest construction firm, Italian-Thai Development Pcl, to transform 250 sq kms (97 sq miles) of scrubland in southern Myanmar into Southeast Asia's largest industrial complex. "There is very little activity around here related to this project. A lot of us wonder if they are really confident enough about it to go forward with it," said Kyaw Naing Oo, 40, a trader in Maungmakan, whose white-sand beaches would border the project. That comment is echoed by other villagers, industry analysts and even the government. In a country where a third of the 60 million people live on less than one U.S. dollar a day, Dawei is striking in its scale and ambition. Follow us [81]Follow @IBTimesUK [82]Google Plus Super-highways, steel mills, power plants, shipyards, refineries, pulp and paper mills and a petrochemical complex are part of it, as are two golf courses and a holiday resort - all strategically nestled in Southeast Asia between rising powers India and China. But just over a year since the former military junta signed a deal to create Myanmar's first and biggest special economic zone (SEZ) at Dawei, the project has made little headway, despite the dramatic political reforms sweeping the country and the prospect of a gradual lifting in Western sanctions as the former British colony emerges from half a century of isolation. Italian-Thai has yet to secure $8.5 billion to finance construction of its first phase -- roads, a telecoms network, utilities and a port -- after building a dirt road of more than 100 km (62 miles) to neighbouring Thailand. Its executives hope to find a strategic partner by year-end and plan to present the project to potential investors in South Korea this month. Myanmar Energy Minister Than Htay told Reuters last week that at least two other SEZs would be developed more quickly than Dawei: the Thilawa project near the commercial capital, Yangon, and Kyaukphyu, where the China-Myanmar pipeline starts and a deep-sea port is nearly finished. "It is faster than the Dawei zone," he said of Kyaukphyu. "Now we are considering supplying the electricity at Kyaukphyu area," he said. Securing a stable source of electricity has been at the heart of Dawei's problems since the government abruptly halted construction of a 4,000 megawatt coal-fired power plant in the area on January 10, citing environmental concerns. ENERGY SUPPLY "NOT SURE" Somchet Thinaphong, managing director of Dawei Development Co Ltd, controlled by Italian-Thai, told Reuters on January 23 that its power plant partner, Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Pcl, would decide on a fuel type within three months, including the possible use of natural gas funnelled to the site via a 50 kms (31 mile) pipeline from fields within Myanmar. But Than Htay ruled out using natural gas to fuel Dawei. "Up to now the electric power supply for that project is not sure," he said of Dawei. In a country beset by chronic electrical outages, powering even a home can be difficult, let alone an industrial zone. Blackouts are common across the country, even at Yangon's international airport. That puts pressure on Ratchaburi, whose involvement is limited to a feasibility study as "a preliminary step," it said in a November 16 statement. Than Htay stressed other ministries would decide Dawei's future, not his. But he offered his personal view of what the government will do: "My guess is sell out, according to the contract made by the previous government." Italian-Thai , which signed a 60-year concession to develop Dawei 14 months ago, has brushed aside those comments. Somchet of Dawei Development Co insists the project will go ahead. "It's at the point of no return. They can say whatever they want but the final decision will depend on the special committee chaired by Myanmar's president," Somchet told Reuters on January 27. He has a powerful local partner. A quarter of Dawei Development is held by Max Myanmar Group, owned by Burmese tycoon Zaw Zaw, whose close ties to the government put him on the U.S. targeted sanctions list in 2009. A November 15, 2007 U.S. diplomatic cable described Zaw Zaw as an "up and coming crony." Today he is one of Myanmar's most influential businessmen. Thailand's top lender, Bangkok Bank, is advising on the power project and Siam Commercial Bank on the whole project. Companies that Italian-Thai has identified as possible investors include Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Japan's Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsui & Co and Sumitomo Corp, and South Korea's POSCO. Japanese Trade and Economy Minister Yukio Edano discussed the project with the Myanmar and Thai governments when he visited both countries last month. "This project is huge and is getting a lot of interest from foreign investors," said Somchet, who personally met Edano and sees Dawei as a possible location for Japanese firms to build parts for use at car manufacturing plants in Thailand, as well as a low-cost location for industrial production for Thai companies. He expects much of the infrastructure, including a proper road to Thailand, to be completed within three years, creating a stable route for cargo sent to Dawei from the Middle East and Africa for shipping to Bangkok and beyond in Southeast Asia, bypassing the congested Strait of Malacca. "CLOUDED WITH RISKS" Brokers appear less sure. In a recent note to clients, Singapore stock brokerage DBS Vickers Securities highlighted the risks. "Despite potential to bring economic prosperity to Burma, the project is still in its infancy and clouded with risks," it said. "The sudden call to halt the 4,000 megawatt coal-fired power plant project would make it difficult for Italian-Thai to secure strategic partners to help fund the project." It described Dawei Development Co's plans to sell land in the area to raise funds for the project as "optimistic" and stressed that without strategic partners and firm funding, Dawei Development would remain a drag on Italian-Thai's earnings this year. In the year to date, Italian-Thai shares have underperformed those of its peers and the overall market due to uncertainty over the Myanmar project. The stock has risen just 0.1 percent in the past 12 months. Italian-Thai has an "Analyst Revision Score" of 14 under a model by earnings-tracker StarMine which ranks stocks according to changes in analyst sentiment, with 100 representing the highest rank. Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Thai Finance Ministry's Economic and Financial Research Institute, told Reuters Dawei would need heavy government involvement or state enterprises to co-invest. Whether that will happen is unclear. Than Htay of Myanmar's Energy Ministry said the government wanted to promote more private involvement. "Regarding the petroleum refineries or the downstream plants, now most of the plans will be taken charge of by the private sector. Up to now, I have no plan to participate in that area because I need to mind existing jobs." PTT Exploration and Production Pcl, Thailand's top state-controlled oil and gas explorer, has shown little interest in the project, and neither has its parent, PTT Plc, Thailand's biggest company. "It is still very early days on Dawei," said Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar's economy at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia. "They are better off having a special economic zone near Yangon. Dawei mainly benefits Thailand. There are not a lot of benefits to Burma from that one." IN DAWEI, MIXED VIEWS In Dawei itself, views of the project are mixed. Some such as Hsan Htoo, a 25-year-old high school dropout working on a fishing trawler, hope it can bring jobs to the impoverished area, where many live in thatched-roof huts and many young people have left to work in neighbouring Thailand. "I heard that Dawei will create job opportunities for many local people. That would be very good. It would mean that we wouldn't have to leave our homes and work in other countries," he said. Others worry about the potential environmental toll and health risks from a project that would be four times bigger than Thailand's largest industrial estate, Map Ta Phut, where pollution between 1996 and 2009 may have contributed to at least 2,000 cancer-related deaths, according to environmental activists who sought legal action to halt the estate in 2009. "It is just not worth it," said Sein Win Aung, a 34-year-old private taxi owner who came out to listen to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi address a crowd of thousands in Dawei on Sunday. "We hear about the problems at the industrial estate in Thailand. We don't want those problems here." Some activists visited Map Ta Phut to see the impact first-hand. In a sign of dramatic change in Myanmar, a village advocacy group has been formed to oppose the project. The Dawei Development Group has raised concern that as many as 32,000 people would be displaced in a region known for its pristine coast, groves of coconut palms and plantations of cashews, mango and rubber. Such groups would have been quickly shut down, their leaders arrested, during the half-century of military rule that ended last March when a nominally civilian government took office. Instead, they are now becoming more organised, emboldened by the government's surprise suspension of the $3.6 billion, Chinese-led Myitsone dam project on September 30 following weeks of public outcry. "What we want is for the project to be done with transparency. It may ultimately go ahead, but we want to make sure it is done by the rule of law and that environmental assessment studies are carried out," said one senior activist in Yangon who has worked closely with the Dawei Development Group. But Dawei is an economic lifeline for villagers such as Win Aung, a 34-year-old driver for Italian-Thai, one of about 200 of the company's workers in Dawei. He used to work in Thailand, but hated it. He chafed at living away from his family. "I didn't enjoying working there at all. Most of my friends don't enjoy their jobs either but most people have no other choice." He said the project was going ahead, and expects it will eventually transform the isthmus that separates the Andaman Sea from the Gulf of Thailand, strengthening Myanmar's relationship with India, China and Southeast Asia by linking them together in trade. Bulldozers were clearing land, he said. Buildings for offices and staff quarters were being built, but no major construction had begun. Many villagers need to be relocated. Italian-Thai is buying land from the locals but has yet to complete new homes where they would live, he said. He remained optimistic about what it would mean for villagers like him. "It will create many, many job opportunities for local people," he said. (Additional reporting by Aung Hla Tun in Dawei and Khettiya Jittapong and Pisit Changplayngam in Bangkok; Editing by Ed lane) Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters UK. All rights reserved. We recommend 1. [83]Monti needs to go beyond Davos crowd to conquer Italy 2. [84]Swiss finance minister says U.S. tax deal can be reached 3. [85]Exclusive: ECB rejects Irish bid on promissory note - sources Must Read 1. [86]Britain's economy flirts with "triple dip" recession 2. [87]Britain's EU future elbows out euro woes at Davos 3. [88]Mali Islamists suffer split as Africans prepare assault Join the Conversation Please enable JavaScript to view the [89]comments powered by Disqus. img [90]Click * [91](Photo: REUTERS / Soe Zeya Tun)
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In a meeting that a handful of journalists were, unusually, allowed to attend, European Commissioner for Development Andris Piebalgs told house speaker Thura Shwe Mann it was important that parliament became an active player in the reform process. The former Burma was ruled by the military for almost 50 years until elections in November 2010, and its new parliament is dominated by military personnel and an army-backed party. But by-elections on April 1 should see more opposition members voted in, including Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and long-time campaigner for democracy. Commissioner Piebalgs noted the European Union had already softened its sanctions. "Some restrictions were suspended because we recognised the changes in the country. For this reason the by-elections are a crucial process," he said. Follow us [81]Follow @IBTimesUK [82]Google Plus Shwe Mann, number three in the former junta and a pivotal figure in the new administration, said he would be happy to see Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) in parliament. The party swept a 1990 election but the military ignored the result. It boycotted the 2010 election. "We have established a parliament, taking the necessary actions for democracy to thrive in Myanmar. The NLD and other parties, if they win in the by-elections, they can be in parliament. We will welcome them," he told Piebalgs. The European Union and the United States have also said the freeing of political prisoners was crucial to the resumption of full diplomatic and economic links. Last month, the European Union eased sanctions slightly when its Foreign Affairs Council agreed to temporarily lift travel bans on President Thein Sein and top government officials in response to ceasefire deals with ethnic minority rebels and a fourth prisoner amnesty on January 13, when about 300 political detainees were freed. Estimates vary on how many remain behind bars, but Shwe Mann suggested there could be further amnesties after an official review. "The remaining political prisoners are those who have committed criminal activities in this country. Those who are on that list, if they have been involved in terrorist activities or harmed the public, they will not be included," he said. STEPPED-UP AID Later, Piebalgs became the most senior EU representative to meet President Thein Sein. He has announced a 150 million euro (125 million pounds), two-year aid package to help Myanmar reverse decades of stagnation because of international isolation and inept military rule. The European Union is leading the way in trying to support a country badly in need of new infrastructure and health and education facilities. To illustrate the stepped-up commitment, its new aid package is worth almost as much as the 173 million euros it has given the Southeast Asian country since 1996. That aid concentrated on health and education, but the new package also aims to find resources for people displaced by conflict and for agriculture, which provides a living for many of the country's estimated 60 million people. Some diplomats from EU member states believe the bloc will lift more sanctions as the year goes on, moving earlier than the United States, which is also positive about the changes but has a stricter sanctions regime that could take longer to undo. The European Union's annual sanctions review will take place in April, after the April 1 by-elections for 48 legislative assembly seats. The government, which is anxious to see the sanctions scrapped, pulled out all the stops to allow Suu Kyi to run. It hopes her presence will add legitimacy to a parliament that is becoming more vocal but still has only limited powers. Piebalgs will meet Suu Kyi at her home in the former capital, Yangon, on Tuesday. "The release of prisoners and, if it ends up being the case, free elections in April, will be used as motivation for the EU to prove that engagement 'works'," said Joakim Kreutz, a researcher at Sweden's Uppsala University and an expert on Myanmar sanctions. "I still expect the arms embargo and some personal sanctions on junta veterans to remain, but I would not be surprised if some measures are lifted." Western businesses constrained by the sanctions are quietly showing interest in Myanmar for its natural resources -- oil, gas, timber and gemstones -- and are also looking to invest in tourism, financial services, hotels, telecommunications networks and infrastructure. (Writing by Alan Raybould; Editing by Robert Birsel) Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters UK. All rights reserved. We recommend 1. [83]Monti needs to go beyond Davos crowd to conquer Italy 2. [84]Swiss finance minister says U.S. tax deal can be reached 3. [85]Exclusive: ECB rejects Irish bid on promissory note - sources Must Read 1. [86]Britain's economy flirts with "triple dip" recession 2. [87]Britain's EU future elbows out euro woes at Davos 3. [88]Mali Islamists suffer split as Africans prepare assault Join the Conversation Please enable JavaScript to view the [89]comments powered by Disqus. img [90]Click [91]ADVERTISE WITH US top 10 Articles 1. [92]Britain's economy flirts with "triple dip" recession 2. [93]Britain's EU future elbows out euro woes at Davos 3. [94]Mali Islamists suffer split as Africans prepare assault 4. [95]Obama loyalist McDonough named White House chief of staff 5. [96]French forces in Mali seize airport, bridge at rebel-held Gao 6. 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By continuing to use this site you agree to our cookie policy. You can view our cookie policy [12]here. [close.png] [13]Business & Law News ____________________ Search * [14]Home * [15]Law firm | Lawyer * [16]Business * [17]Hot Issues * [18]Law & Society * [19]Topics * LATEST NEWS * [icon_left.gif] [icon_stop.gif] [icon_right.gif] * [20]Seven Die in Egypt Anniversary Protests [21]Telecom Italia not looking to expand in Latin America - chairman [22]FA Cup: Brentford vs Chelsea Preview [23]MP Stands by Controversial Holocaust Comments [24]French Forces Seize Airport, Key Bridge In Mali [25]Manchester United Vs. Fulham: Where To Watch Online Stream; Preview, Team News And Prediction [26]Monti needs to go beyond Davos crowd to conquer Italy [27]Grandma Killed By 'Vicious' Pet Cockatiel [28]PGA Farmers Insurance Open At Torrey Pines: Where To Watch Live Online Stream, Tiger Woods Holds Two Stroke Lead Heading Into Third Round Action [29]'Popcorn Cannon' Featured on Mythbusters, Just One of China's Several Bizarre Innovations [SLIDESHOW] Burma May Lift Ban on Punk Rock after David Cameron Visit * [30]Article Burma May Lift Ban on Punk Rock after David Cameron Visit By [31]Jamie Lewis: Subscribe to Jamie's [32]RSS feed April 13, 2012 5:39 PM GMT * * 5 pictures * [33]Start David Cameron in Burma: Ludicrous Laws on Punk Rock Could Lighten David Cameron in Burma: Ludicrous Laws on Punk Rock Could Lighten David Cameron's historic visit to Burma and his promise of easing sanctions if the regime brings in further political reforms could have unexpected consequences for the country's fledgling punk rock scene. In an effort to attract investment after decades as a pariah state, the repressive Burmese junta may lift some of its more ludicrous laws, such as the ban on punk music. In the West, punk has always been associated with rebellion and anarchy but in Burma, just listening to it could get you arrested. Two punk bands that are tolerated at best are No U Turn and the Rebel Riot who, to their fans, fight the oppressive laws on a daily basis. The Rebel Riot's lyrics are clearly anti-oppression: "No fear! No indecision!/ Rage against the system of the oppressors!" and "We are poor, hungry and have no chance/ Human rights don't apply to us/We are victims, victims, victims." Their shows regularly attract the notice of the police and it is widely believed that punk crowds are heavily laced with police informants. Cameron's visit took place on the day of the Burmese water festival. "What I see happening in Burma is a potential flowering of freedom and democracy and I think that from everything I've seen it seems as if the president of Burma is intent on taking a new path and wants to see a progressive flourishing of freedom and democracy," he told students. He was the first British prime minister to visit Burma since the country severed its ties and became independent from Britain in 1948. Early days Photo:Reuters Early days Young punks during the Burma water festival at a music bar in Yangon Anger is an energy Photo:Reuters Anger is an energy When punk exploded on to the music scene in Britain in 1976 it scared the Establishment. There were unofficial bans and heavy-handed police tactics occasionally but Burma's punks have had to deal with a much more sinister regime. Dare to be different Photo:REUTERS Dare to be different Spiky hair defines the punk image worldwide Old and new Photo:Reuters Old and new Burma celebrates the New Year Water Festival of Thingyan during the month of Tagu - even at a punk festival in Yangon Young punk Photo:Reuters Young punk Punk is about fighting repression. Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is a figurehead for many punks in the country. 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By [88]Geetha Pillai: Subscribe to Geetha's [89]RSS feed June 15, 2012 9:20 AM GMT Soft-drink maker Coca-Cola plans to return to Burma after a long absence of 60 years, as the US government eased economic sanctions against the Buddhist nation. The Atlanta-based company is planning to make "significant investments" in the next three to five years and is waiting for the necessary approvals from the US government that allows companies to start investments in the Southeast Asian nation. "Coca-Cola's planned entry into Burma, following the suspension of sanctions, will be governed by its well-established global standards for corporate ethics including strict adherence to its global human and workplace rights policy, supplier guiding principles, code of business conduct, and anti-bribery policies," said Coca-Cola in a statement on Thursday. The beverages major is planning to import products from the neighbouring countries as a first step before starting its production facilities in Burma. With its latest entry into Burma, Cuba and North Korea are the other two nations where the company has no presence, said Coca-Cola in the statement. Other corporate majors who have announced their plans to foray into the minerals-rich nation are the London-based WPP, the world's biggest advertising company and India's major automaker, Tata Motors. General Electric (GE) and Honda Motors also have plans to enter Burma, according to a report by Bloomberg. Follow us [90]Follow @IBTimesUK [91]Google Plus Meanwhile, Burma's pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi appealed for worker's rights during a speech at the International Labour Organisation in Geneva on Thursday and warned against economic development ignoring the rights of labourers. Suu Kyi was released from decades of detention in late 2010. She is due to accept her 1991Nobel Peace Prize on Saturday in Oslo. The US has eased the economic sanctions on Burma followed by its recent transition to democracy from decades of military rule, which left its 64 million people in isolation and poverty. This article is copyrighted by IBTimes.co.uk, the business news leader We recommend * [92]The WikiLeaks GiFiles: Coca-Cola Hired Stratfor to Monitor Peta activists at Winter Olympics * [93]Coca Cola Habit Behind New Zealand Woman's Death? * [94]Anti-Junk Food Campaigners Launch ‘Super-complaint’ over Ads Must Read 1. [95]Google Unveils Revamped Image Search [96]Google Unveils Revamped Image Search With New Metadata Display 2. [97]jet airways [98]Jet Airways Shares Gain on Etihad Deal Speculation 3. [99]Starbucks' Vigo Street branch in Mayfair [100]Starbucks Posts Solid Profits amid Slowing European Sales, UK Store Closures Join the Conversation Please enable JavaScript to view the [101]comments powered by Disqus. img [102]Click * [103](Photo: Reuters)
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They have also underscored the need for U.S. engagement as a bulwark against the economic uncertainty, ethnic tensions and civil unrest that continue to plague Burma's exceedingly fragile evolution. [33]Bringing Burma Along (Photo: Reuters) Leader of the Burmese opposition party National League for Democracy met with U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday in the White House. Sponsorship Link Washington has been an energetic proponent of Burma’s political transformation for some time now. Most visibly, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a landmark visit to the country in 2011, during which she committed the U.S. to an “action-for-action” strategy; as Burma continued to enact political reforms, the U.S. would reciprocate with economic aid and the easing of sanctions. But in the months since Clinton’s visit, it has become clear that Burma's democratic transition, while proceeding cautiously, still rests on shaky ground. This summer, riots erupted in Rakhine state, fuelled by tensions between Burmese Buddhists and minority ethnic Rohingya Muslims. The Rohingyas’ plight sparked outcry from the international community, with some [34]accusing Burmese authorities of carrying out violent and systematic discrimination -- with devastating results. Conservative estimates put the death toll from the conflict in the hundreds, while the United Nations projects that some 90,000 people were displaced. The outbreak of violence prompted heightened international scrutiny of the new Burmese government, revealing in the process that its two most prominent achievements to date -- the abolition of press censorship and the release of political prisoners -- remain very much works in progress. Still, some halting forward momentum is visible. The Burmese government deserves credit for freeing some 500 prisoners in recent weeks in a move that neatly coincided with its president’s trip to the U.S. Yet only 88 of these were political prisoners, and even those were granted “provisional freedom,” [35]according to a report by Human Rights Watch. (More depressingly, the report goes on to highlight how “freed dissidents” are still barred access to movement, education and psychological treatment for their prison-induced trauma.) Similarly, in August, the Thien government abolished the law requiring reporters to submit their work to state censors before publication. The elimination of this 50-year-old “tradition” was hailed by outside observers as a substantive sign of progress. However, [36]the BBC reports that a series of laws untouched by the reforms could still be used to prosecute journalists for their writing, and editors are still under pressure to keep content “legal.” Nevertheless, publications covering less sensitive issues are now allowed to print without prior review, and thousands of Internet web sites are accessible to users, permitting political content for the first time -- changes that would have been unthinkable under military rule. These developments are modest, to be sure, but they demonstrate that some genuine progress indeed has been made in recent times in peeling back the layers of historic autocratic governance. At the same time, they underscore that Burma's transition to democracy remains both tenuous and reversible. As the U.S. begins to ease Burma’s diplomatic isolation, it must stay focused on two complementary goals. The first has to do with bolstering the country’s struggling economy. The second deals with defending the human rights of minorities and political opponents. These issue are organically linked. In her recent trip to Washington DC, Aung San Suu Kyi, herself a long-time political dissident, made that point when she said she favored a speedy move toward normalization of commercial relations. The Obama administration [37]responded the same week, lifting an import ban on Burmese products, and is now working with Congress to pass a waiver that will dilute or remove the bulk of remaining sanctions. It's a good start. Burma is one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia, with 26 percent of the population living below the poverty line, according to UN statistics. Lifting investment sanctions and import bans will create desperately needed jobs in Burma and diversify the economy away from its current, unhealthy dependence on energy exports. Nothing can ease the rocky transition from autocracy to democracy more effectively than economic growth, and nothing can undermine a newly elected government like a faltering economy. International actors are increasingly taking notice as well. The European Union recently eased its own sanctions on Burma in response to improving working conditions there; India, meanwhile, is eyeing the country’s natural gas reserves, hoping to make up economic ground lost to China during Burma's years of isolation. This kind of economic competition is healthy, insofar as its logical outcome is a more prosperous and liberalizing Burma. But it also carries the risk of political backsliding, especially if Burmese authorities are tempted to revert back to authoritarianism as economic stability strengthens. Washington's biggest contribution to Burma's progress, then, isn't simply to remain engaged on the economic and political fronts. 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[6]Travel Industry Eyes Bumper Burma Tourist Season * [7]BURMESE VERSION | * [8]BLOG | * [9]VIDEO | ____________________ [10][button_subscription.jpg] [11]The Irrawaddy Magazine * [12]HOME * [13]BURMA * [14]ASIA * [15]BUSINESS * [16]OPINION * [17]FEATURE * [18]INTERVIEW * [19]CARTOON * [20]SPORTS * [21]MULTIMEDIA * [22]ARCHIVES IFRAME: [23]a7650678 [24][workwithus.gif] BURMA Burma’s Economy Can Triple by 2030: ADB By [25]SIMON ROUGHNEEN / THE IRRAWADDY| August 21, 2012 | 3 [26]Print This Post Ships docked in Rangoon. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) Ships docked in Rangoon. (Photo: Steve Tickner / The Irrawaddy) BANGKOK—Burma’s economy can triple in size by 2030 and make up some ground lost to wealthier neighbors, say analysts, if sufficient reforms are undertaken in the coming years. A year of politically-focused changes such as releasing political prisoners, and the Monday ending of pre-publication censorship for the country’s media, will be followed by a series of economic reforms, the Burmese government says, with new foreign investment regulations likely to be passed into law in coming weeks. If the reforms stay on track, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) believes that Burma can attain “middle income” economic status by 2030, saying that the economy has the potential to grow by seven-to-eight percent per annum in the intervening years. The World Bank defines a middle income country as one with a per capita GDP of US $1,025—a status long-attained by neighbors such as Thailand, Malaysia and more recently Vietnam, which launched its economic glasnost in 1986. “I underscore the word potential as there are a lot of challenges that the country faces,” said Stephen Groff, ADB vice-president, speaking at the launch of the bank’s report on the Burma economy at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Bangkok on Monday. Sixty-six percent of the population lives in the countryside, according to 2010 World Bank numbers, and if Burma’s economic reforms are to improve lives outside towns and cities, better living and working conditions for the country’s rural poor will be key. To reach its potential level of prosperity, “[Burma] need to maintain macro-economic stability, they need to keep inflation low and under control,” Groff said during a recent video interview. “They need to keep sustainable and realistic budgets in place.” Farming in Burma remains antiquated, say those involved in the country’s agriculture sector. Aung Zaw Oo, joint-secretary of the Myanmar Rice Industry Association said that “we need to improve the awareness and the access to technology for farmers. We harvest in Myanmar manually.” Burma was the world’s biggest rice exporter until the 1960s, and plans to quadruple rice exports from last year’s 778,000 metric tons by 2015. Better working conditions for farmers are hampered by Burma’s poor infrastructure, with rural roads often little more than dirt-tracks and electricity rare-to-absent in many areas of the country, particularly in ethnic minority regions bordering Thailand, China and India. Power shortages earlier this year prompted widespread candle-lit protests in Burma’s towns and cities, despite the country being rich in natural resources. Banks too are scarce, says Groff, contributing to a lack of available credit for people hoping to improve their farms. Dr. Sean Turnell, an authority on the Burmese economy based at Australia’s Macquarie University, said financial insecurity is hampering many of the country’s millions of farmers. “The rural indebtedness situation in Burma is terrible,” he said. “In the absence of formal credit they fall into the hands of moneylenders, paying interest of 10 percent per month.” However, Burma’s young population—an estimated 25 percent of which is under 30 years of age—could be an economic asset going forward, if opportunities come their way. “Whether the youth population turns to a demographic dividend or curse depends on the government,” said Cyn-Young Park, an ADB economist, referring to the need for greater investment in education, health and infrastructure. Harnessing Burma’s young population—and ensuring that the country’s political opening does not result in public disenchantment—means helping millions to find jobs. With a new foreign investment law set to be enacted during the current Parliament sitting, there are high hopes that foreign companies will find Burma’s low wage economy attractive. However, about three-quarters of the foreign investment into Burma to date has been in oil and gas, says the ADB, which are sectors that do not create much local employment. After meeting Burma’s opposition leader and recently-elected parliamentarian Aung San Suu Kyi in Naypyidaw over the weekend, Stephen Groff said that “she feels strongly that jobs and job creation are crucial,” echoing comments made by Burmese officials speaking at the World Economic Forum in Bangkok in June. The ADB halted its operations in Burma in 1988 but re-established an office on Aug. 1 at Rangoon’s Inya Lake Hotel. Related Posts : * [27]Burma Business Roundup (Saturday, Jan. 26) Burma Business Roundup (Saturday, Jan. 26) * [28]Burmese Ex-Telecoms Minister Faces Graft Probe Burmese Ex-Telecoms Minister Faces Graft Probe * [29]Rangoon to Get New Housing Project Rangoon to Get New Housing Project * [30]Burma's Mobile Market Set to Expand Burma's Mobile Market Set to Expand * [31]Burma Still an ‘Extreme Risk’ for Investors Despite Reforms Burma Still an ‘Extreme Risk’ for Investors Despite Reforms IFRAME: [32]//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebo ok.com%2Ftheirrawaddy&width=645&height=290&colorscheme=light&show_faces =true&border_color&stream=false&header=true&appId=126420664045317 3 Responses to Burma’s Economy Can Triple by 2030: ADB 1. Ohn [33]August 21, 2012 - 5:38 am What is it there that is so wonderful about getting money for selling out a country at a strategic position rich in fertile soil, forest, plentiful coastal line and gems and minerals? Plenty of youth, endearingly called by their own dear “Mother Suu” as “time-bombs”, could of course be one-dollar human garbage in SEZ’s as unprotected, slavery from 7 to 11 (that is 11pm) in lovely Chinese, Korean and Thai sweatshops. Farmers are likely to lose their land to money men for near future massive mechanization to become the “Biggest Rice Exporter of the World” like good old golden times. Wonderful times, except for the landless farmers ending up in fire-risk factories of the future making soup and socks living n cramped soiled rooms watching re-runs of “Friends”. [34]Reply 2. Khin Win Kyi [35]August 21, 2012 - 6:25 am Our neighbors will be at the level of the Western Countries in 30 years and Myanmar will still be much behind. So, Thein Sein needs a lot to do today to catch up a lot faster. The government cannot afford to drag its feet. Since 1962, Myanmar went backward while Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand went forward. Even Vietnam has been tying to catch up since ten years ago and Vietnam is now blooming. Lets go U Thein Sein. [36]Reply 3. myo nyunt [37]August 21, 2012 - 9:41 am Myanmar economy can easily achieve a GDP growth rate ranging from 7 to 8 percent in the coming decades. But the acid test is ” how to minimise the increasing wealth concentration by the few and reduce the income disparities between urban and rural areas’. As population growth rate of Myanmar has been projected as between 1.91 and 2.1 percent, unless its per capita income growth is greater than say 2.5 percent or more in the coming decades economic well being of the majority of Myanmar people is doubtful. [38]Reply [39]Cancel Reply IFRAME: [40]jetpack_remote_comment * * [41]Viagra Canadian pharmacy dosage. 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(Photo: Reuters) A girl carries a basin on her head near a cyclone shelter outside Pyar Pon Township in 2010. (Photo: Reuters) As Burma attempts to rebuild after the decades of neglect, two studies warn that the country also needs to build defenses against natural disasters like Cyclone Nargis and guard against environmental calamities. Burma is one of several countries in Southeast Asia at risk of serious environmental crises devastating their economies, says business risk assessor Maplecroft. Ten nations in Asia—including neighbors Bangladesh and India—were identified as having little capacity to withstand natural disasters. “High exposure to natural hazards in these countries are compounded by a lack of resilience to combat the effects of a disaster should one emerge,” said UK-based Maplecroft. Burma is one of the countries with “the greatest proportion of their economic output exposed to natural hazards,” according to the study. “In addition, they also demonstrate poor capability to recover from a significant event exposing investments in those countries to risk of supply chain and market disruptions,” said Maplecroft. “This could lead to sizable business interruption costs, in addition to material damage to essential infrastructure.” In a separate study, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns that East Asian countries must act now to avert natural disasters engulfing their mushrooming urban populations by adopting more renewable energy systems and clean-air technologies. Asia is urbanizing at a faster rate than anywhere else and is now home to almost half the world’s city dwellers. By 2020, it will have 21 of the world’s 37 megacities and over the next 30 years another 1.1 billion people are forecast to be living in metropolises, said the ADB study. “The region will be confronted with even greater environmental challenges that are already serious, including air pollution, congestion, carbon dioxide emissions, deprivation in water and basic sanitation, plus growing vulnerability to natural disasters,” said the ADB. Just as Burma seeks to emerge from dilapidated isolation and encourage investment in new infrastructure for electricity generation and transport to catch up with other Southeast Asian countries, the ADB warns that many “sophisticated” cities in the region face a decline in living standards due to air pollution caused by excessive traffic, industry and coal-burning power plants. “Particularly disturbing are urban carbon dioxide emissions, which if left unchecked under a business-as-usual scenario could reach 10.2 metric tons per capita by 2050, a level which would have disastrous consequences for both Asia and the rest of the world,” said the report. To avoid a decline in living standards and health as well as avert urban disasters, Asia must follow a green urbanization path to “promote the use of new technologies and renewable energy,” the ADB said. “Asia must incorporate environmental priorities in city planning. This is underway through building new and satellite cities with renewables as primary energy sources, as piloted in [China],” the ADB said. The natural disaster risks faced by Asian countries are made worse by their economic fragility, said Maplecroft. “Some of the highest risk countries have substantial economic outputs, but they are fuelled by large, poor populations, many of which live on marginal land such as flood plains, leaving constituent workforces at heightened risk and without the necessary resources to re-establish themselves in the aftermath of an event.” Burma’s worst natural disaster, Cyclone Nargis, only occurred in May 2008. It killed at least 138,000 people and caused devastation in the Irrawaddy Delta region which has still not yet fully recovered. Without infrastructure in place to respond to similar calamities, Burma’s ambition to become a major rice producer and exporter remains in serious jeopardy, the studies’ researchers say. Maplecroft highlighted that even Burma’s more developed neighbor Thailand suffered serious financial losses and disruption when severe flooding inundated both industrial zones and rice paddy around Bangkok in 2011. The flooding reduced Thailand’s GDP by nine percent and the economy is still suffering one year on. “The floods also affected the operations and supply chains of multinational companies, with the automotive industry and ICT sectors hardest hit—manufacturers of hard-drives were only able to meet two-thirds of demand in the final quarter of 2011, pushing prices up by up to 55 percent,” Maplecroft cited as an example of the knock-on effects of natural disasters. “The test for emerging and developing economies is to build a stronger capacity to meet the challenge of hazard-prone environments,” said Maplecroft’s Helen Hodge. “Failure to do so will risk their ambitious economic growth when the inevitable natural hazards strike.” The ADB suggests that Burma is ideally positioned to benefit from the mistakes made by more advanced economies in Southeast Asia where “breakneck expansion has been accompanied by a sharp rise in pollution, slums and widening economic and social inequalities which are causing rapid environmental degradation.” So with the advantage of hindsight, Burma is in a position where it could avoid these problems by directing measured and sustainable development. The bank’s report urges governments to invest in less polluting technology and infrastructure and to focus on energy-efficient urban buildings to reduce electricity demand. “For urbanization to be not only green but inclusive, policymakers need to promote climate-resilient cities, in order to prevent disasters like the 2011 Bangkok floods,” says the ADB. The report recommends that governments should promote climate change-resilient cities—including building homes in safe areas, make housing affordable for the poor and investing in drainage infrastructure and weather forecast technology. The speed of urbanization in Asia—a problem which seems certain to confront Burma as investment flows into Rangoon and Mandalay—shows no sign of slowing. Within the next 20 years another 110 million people will be living in cities across the region at risk of flooding, raising the total in danger to 410 million people. “Asia has seen unprecedented urban population growth but this has been accompanied by immense stress on the environment,” said the bank’s Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. “The challenge now is to put in place policies which will reverse that trend and facilitate the development of green technology and green urbanization.” Related Posts : * [27]Burmese Magazine License Pulled for Sexual Content Burmese Magazine License Pulled for Sexual Content * [28]Chinese Prospectors Stake a Claim in Arakan State Chinese Prospectors Stake a Claim in Arakan State * [29]Take Me to the River: In Southeast Asia, Art Turns an Eye to the Water Take Me to the River: In Southeast Asia, Art Turns an Eye to the Water * [30]Poverty and Plenty in Burma's Arid Heartland Poverty and Plenty in Burma's Arid Heartland * [31]Coal, Rivers, Gas and Hot Rocks Coal, Rivers, Gas and Hot Rocks IFRAME: [32]//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebo ok.com%2Ftheirrawaddy&width=645&height=290&colorscheme=light&show_faces =true&border_color&stream=false&header=true&appId=126420664045317 6 Responses to Environmental Crises Threaten Burma’s Economy 1. Moe Aung [33]August 21, 2012 - 10:39 pm Burma after all these decades in limbo has the advantage of the Irish joke “If I were you I wouldn’t start from here”. Whether the govt will take it all on board the good advice, timely warnings and cautionary tales or not is quite another matter. Depends if the real agenda is making a quick buck or the long term national interest. I wouldn’t hold my breath. [34]Reply 2. Mualcin [35]August 22, 2012 - 12:42 am When we can vote and elect the best candidates for President and Vice President, we will have a secure and stable life in our country. Today’s President and Vice Presidents are not the real chosen leaders as the whole world knows it. Campaigns, debates and screening were not done through public opinion in the last so called election. USDP used State Funds, and dead or alive, they were determined to hold power. Thein Sein is not the best/smartest man Burma has today for President. He was sent to the Presidency by Than Shwe. So, he will not be the President from 2015. Period. We will have elected the right persons to lead our Union and we will clean up the House. The truly elected Representatives will serve us as we want them to serve us. [36]Reply 3. Ohn [37]August 22, 2012 - 2:08 am “Asia has seen unprecedented urban population growth but this has been accompanied by immense stress on the environment,” said the bank’s Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. “The challenge now is to put in place policies which will reverse that trend and facilitate the development of green technology and green urbanization.” Human permanently stuck in a 5-year-old mentality cannot possibly stop their desire to have flat, concrete pavements and long-straight roads, as well as SUV’s, Karaoke, drink, drug and brothels that go along with that. Only much later people will start to try pathetically and unsuccessfully to reverse the trend when there is nothing left to preserve. Current Thailand and Cambodia are cases in points. But the Burmese drools every night for them. Cars, buildings, Sky-trains, Karaoke bars, McDonald. For their pathetic minds those are Nivana. Even monks preach as such. Oh- foreign travels. It is a shame as there is currently wonderful environment and lovely social cohesiveness that can still be kept. But no. those will be gone soon with the arrivals of the multinationals and then people will start to look for then, in vain. [38]http://www.dictatorwatch.org/articles/monkeypaw.pdf [39]Reply 4. Terry Evans [40]August 22, 2012 - 9:22 am A healthy environment is essential for sustainable development. This means that rapid economic growth must build in effective environmental safeguards. Otherwise, economic gains may be short-lived – being undermined by the loss of valuable ecosystem services and costly ecological disasters. [41]Reply 5. John Allan [42]August 22, 2012 - 1:40 pm Last year’s flooding in Thailand was less a natural disaster, than one manufactured by government mismanagement, compounded by incompetence in dealing with the aftermath, and in mitigating the effects. [43]Reply 6. sophia [44]August 23, 2012 - 4:03 am IF we want to see developing world . The first thing we need to do is to figure out what is happening now.So what we are happening . Surely , environment problem is the most that sabotage our development plan . So why don’t we conserve our environment ? if we don’t protect our nature environment Imagine ,we were sailing a boat without preparing the hole . The sure thing is that the boat will sink sooner or later. Have we noticed that the cost of rehabilitation for nature disaster is more cost than urbanization . It is vain lack of conservation the natural environment .we are like foolish children who buy the luxury thing neglecting the hungry parent. 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(PHOTO: www.imdb.com) Certain domestic companies with foreign ties have been advertising themselves to the public as investment banks, however they do not have licenses to operate and therefore their activities are illegal, Burma’s Ministry of Finance and Revenue (MFR) has warned. Dr. Maung Maung Thein, the MFR deputy minister, did not mention by name the companies he was referring to, but said that they had been guilty of advertising via the media and the Internet to act as investment banks and had falsely claimed that they had government permission to conduct financial affairs in Burma. “A couple of companies with foreign connections have been advertising in the media and stating that they have already obtained permits to conduct investment banking [in Burma],” he said. “There have also been reports that those companies have been sending out emails inviting the public to invest through them. “No foreign institution has yet been given license to operate inside Burma. They are not even allowed to open offices in this country,” he said. According to the Myanmar Monetary Organizations Law, anyone involved in financial activities without official permission shall be subject to a 50,000 kyat [US $60] fine, a five-year imprisonment or both. The MFR deputy minister added that the general public must be wary of monetary organizations such as the cooperative credit societies which deceived people in the past and left behind many bitter memories. “Some monetary and financial organizations can be very deceitful,” he continued. “They promise substantial interest and dividends to those who invest with them. Many people do. Then, the firms take all the money and run away.” Thet Htun Oo, the senior manager at Myanmar Securities Exchange Centre, suggested that people should invest money or buy shares only after they have made proper inquiries, and be especially vigilant as to the background of the company they are dealing with. According to Dr. Aung Ko Ko, a Burmese economist living inside Burma, the government’s monetary policy and the Central Bank’s monitoring of financial organizations are important for the economic development of Burma and the stability of the currency. Related Posts : * [27]Burma Business Roundup (Saturday, Jan. 26) Burma Business Roundup (Saturday, Jan. 26) * [28]Burmese Ex-Telecoms Minister Faces Graft Probe Burmese Ex-Telecoms Minister Faces Graft Probe * [29]Rangoon to Get New Housing Project Rangoon to Get New Housing Project * [30]Burma's Mobile Market Set to Expand Burma's Mobile Market Set to Expand * [31]Burma Still an ‘Extreme Risk’ for Investors Despite Reforms Burma Still an ‘Extreme Risk’ for Investors Despite Reforms IFRAME: [32]//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebo ok.com%2Ftheirrawaddy&width=645&height=290&colorscheme=light&show_faces =true&border_color&stream=false&header=true&appId=126420664045317 2 Responses to Burmese Govt Warns Public about Dodgy Investments 1. Tharlikar [33]October 18, 2012 - 5:35 pm This is lawless country hyped up to no end by the “Democracies” for their own agenda with totally clueless “Mother and Father” of the nation. People are simply preys for any carpet baggers and conmen with no recourse for justice. Guess what? This is just the beginning! [34]Reply 2. [35]Joe 2 [36]November 14, 2012 - 7:40 am Be careful to do business only with genuine relatives and cronies of high ranking army personnel so that they may continue to control the Burmese economy and purchase even property in Singapore, Hong Kong and London. Oh, and Ferraris for their children to crash while drunk. [37]Reply [38]Cancel Reply IFRAME: [39]jetpack_remote_comment * * [40]Viagra Canadian pharmacy dosage. 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Sanctions are intended to encourage positive change and will have value only if affected governments trust that the penalties will be lifted as they make progress. Related News * [35]Myanmar’s Opposition Leader Urges End to Sanctions (September 19, 2012) * [36]Myanmar Releases Hundreds of Prisoners (September 18, 2012) Opinion Twitter Logo. Connect With Us on Twitter For Op-Ed, follow [37]@nytopinion and to hear from the editorial page editor, Andrew Rosenthal, follow [38]@andyrNYT. During [39]her visit to Washington this week — the first since she was freed from 15 years of house arrest — Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi did not specify what sanctions should be eased. But among the sanctions now in place is a ban on virtually all Myanmar imports to the United States. Myanmar’s democratic progress has been substantial. Since taking office last year, President U Thein Sein has pushed aside officials who don’t support reforms and allowed Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and her party to run for Parliament. He has [40]freed hundreds of political prisoners and begun to carry out economic and political reforms, including a new law relaxing press censorship. Still, there is reason to be on guard against backsliding toward authoritarianism. Mr. Thein Sein and his national security council have too much power, including authority to declare a state of emergency at any time. There is a need for land reform, a professional military under civilian control and an end to human rights abuses. Mr. Thein Sein, who is scheduled to attend the United Nations General Assembly next week, deserves recognition for what has been achieved since 2011. For that, the Obama administration has already relaxed some sanctions, allowing American companies to invest in many parts of the Myanmar economy. On Wednesday, it removed him and another official from a list of sanctioned individuals, thus allowing Americans to do business with them and giving them access to once-blocked assets. The administration should also consider supporting aid to Myanmar through international institutions and lifting the import ban. American and international businesses will have important roles to play, too. When they invest in Myanmar, they could adopt stringent rules against the use of forced labor and other human rights abuses, as Amnesty International has recommended. Despite huge challenges, Myanmar, in significant ways, is a model of effective collaboration on the path to democracy — between Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and Mr. Thein Sein and, in the United States, between Republicans and Democrats. Through the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, top officials and lawmakers supported sanctions and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, and, when they saw an opening in 2011, agreed to engage with Myanmar on a step-by-step basis. That’s worth noting in this era of dysfunctional politics. A version of this editorial appeared in print on September 22, 2012, on page A22 of the New York edition with the headline: Myanmar’s Fragile Democracy. 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[35]Home>> 2. [36]News>> 3. [37]World News>> 4. [38]Asia>> 5. [39]Burma Myanmar US opens up investment in Burma The United States on Wednesday gave the green light to companies to invest in Burma including in oil and gas, in its broadest and most controversial easing yet of sanctions on the former pariah. The United States on Wednesday gave the green light to companies to invest in Burma including in oil and gas, in its broadest and most controversial easing yet of sanctions on the former pariah. US President Barck Obama and Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi Photo: AP 10:12AM BST 12 Jul 2012 Comments [40]Comments Hours after the arrival in Burma of the first US ambassador in two decades, President Barack Obama announced the latest gesture in recognition of reforms in a nation dominated by the military since 1962. "Today, the United States is easing restrictions to allow US companies to responsibly do business in Burma," Obama said in a statement, referring to Burma by its former name. "President Thein Sein, Aung San Suu Kyi and the people of Burma continue to make significant progress along the path to democracy, and the government has continued to make important economic and political reforms." US companies have been pressing the Obama administration to end restrictions on investment, fearing they will lose out to European and Asian competitors that already enjoy access to the potentially lucrative economy. But Obama's move marks a rare divergence from Suu Kyi, Burma's Nobel Peace Prize-winning opposition leader, who has warned foreign firms not to form partnerships with the state-owned Burma Oil and Gas Enterprise, or MOGE. Related Articles * [41]US eases Burma sanctions 11 Jul 2012 * [42]Suu Kyi gets first taste of public office 09 Jul 2012 * [43]Aung San Suu Kyi makes Burma parliament debut 09 Jul 2012 * [44]Burma's hardline vice-president steps down in further sign of reform 04 Jul 2012 * [45]All in a word: Burma's rulers tell Suu Kyi not to call it Burma 29 Jun 2012 Suu Kyi, who spent years under house arrest but won a seat in parliament since the reforms, said on a recent tour of Europe that MOGE needed first to sign up to international standards such as the IMF code on transparency. Under the new rules, US companies will have the right to enter into business with MOGE but must notify the State Department within 60 days. All US companies that invest more than $500,000 in Burma will be required to file reports to the State Department each year that show their consideration for human rights, workers' rights and the environment. The administration's decision came under fire from human rights activists, who until recently had largely supported the US engagement with Burma. Human Rights Watch said that the reporting requirements were not enough and that the United States should have insisted on reforms in governance and human rights before opening up investment. "By allowing deals with Burma's state-owned oil company, the US looks like it caved to industry pressure and undercut Aung San Suu Kyi and others in Burma who are promoting government accountability," said Arvind Ganesan, the group's director for business and human rights. Aung Din, a former political prisoner who heads the US Campaign for Burma pressure group, said that Obama was rewarding institutions behind the serious human rights violations in a country torn by decades of conflict. "I am sure Obama will be appreciated by the Burmese generals, cronies and US corporations, but not by the people of Burma," he said. Obama voiced concern about the role of the military and said that the United States would continue to ban investment in companies owned by the defence ministry or armed groups. "This order is a clear message to Burmese government and military officials: those individuals who continue to engage in abusive, corrupt, or destabilising behaviour going forward will not reap the rewards of reform," he said. Obama also issued sanctions on Burma's Directorate of Defense Industries over its agreement in 2008 with North Korea on missile development. The relationship between Burma and North Korea has long been murky. South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said after a visit to Burma in May that he won a promise to refrain from military co-operation with the North. Burma's parliament is considering a new investment law and a series of other measures aimed at liberalising the economy, which was left in tatters by decades of mismanagement, cronyism and isolation under the junta. Derek Mitchell, a veteran US policy-maker on Asia, arrived on Wednesday as the first US ambassador to Burma since the then junta's violent crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 1988. Obama made the announcement as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who paid a historic visit to Burma in December, landed in Cambodia for talks with Southeast Asian nations. Two other senior US officials, Robert Hormats and Francisco Sanchez, plan to hold talks this weekend in Burma on stepping up trade. Source: AFP [46]Burma Myanmar * [47]News >> * [48]World News >> * [49]Asia >> * [50]North America >> * [51]USA >> In Burma Myanmar [52]New species found: walking catfish, Beelzebub bat and two-legged lizard [53]New species found [54]Buried Spitfires to be excavated next year [55]Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi talks to journalists after meeting US President Barack Obama during a press conference at her house in Rangoon [56]Obama in Burma [57]The Hairy Cornflake meets The Lady [58]The Lady meets The Hairy Cornflake [59]A Rakhine man holds homemade weapons as he walks in front of houses that were burnt during fighting between Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim Rohingya communities in Sittwe [60]Tensions rise in Burma Advertisement telegraphuk Please enable JavaScript to view the [61]comments powered by Disqus. [62]blog comments powered by Disqus Advertisement Advertisement News Most Viewed * TODAY * PAST WEEK * PAST MONTH 1. 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[287][spacer.gif] [288]Court rejects Obamaâs recess appointments [289][spacer.gif] [290]11 ways to eat, live healthier [291][spacer.gif] [292]Nats will name Taft new racing president [293][post-pulse.png] [294]One timers: Special teams not so special The Post’s View The changing nation of Burma * [295]Smaller Text [296]Larger Text Text Size * [297]Print * [298]E-mail * [299]Reprints By [300]Editorial Board, Sep 29, 2012 10:15 PM EDT The Washington Post WITH BURMA moving toward democracy, there’s no shortage of players willing to take some credit. [301]Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) said in a letter to The Post a couple of months ago that “without the intense efforts initiated from my office, including my groundbreaking visit to Burma in 2009, many of the democratic advances in Burma (also known as Myanmar) would not have taken place.” [302]Loading... [303]Comments * [304]Weigh In * [305]Corrections? [306]Personal Post Washington Post Editorials Editorials represent the views of The Washington Post as an institution, as determined through debate among members of the editorial board. News reporters and editors never contribute to editorial board discussions, and editorial board members don’t have any role in news coverage. [307]Read more Latest Editorials [308]A charge of murder [309]A charge of murder Editorial Board A Manassas man is arrested in his son’s death, but questions remain for Montgomery officials. [310]Dangerous waters in the Pacific [311]Dangerous waters in the Pacific Editorial Board Japan and China ratchet up a dispute over a group of islands. [312]Fallen warriors [313]Fallen warriors Editorial Board The military must do more to understand why its troops are committing suicide. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, speaking on Sept. 19 as Burma’s democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi won the [314]Congressional Gold Medal, recounted her formulation of “a new approach that the United States might take to try to see if there were any ways to help move a transition forward. . . . And slowly, change started.” We suppose the more parents of this incomplete but encouraging reform process, the better, if those parents feel invested in helping to keep reform on track. But before history gets totally rewritten, it’s worth making a couple of points. One is that generals and ex-generals still run Burma, as generals have been running Burma for the past half-century. The stirrings of reform that have allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to travel and that prompted the United States to lift pretty much the last of its economic sanctions last week, are only that: stirrings. There is no rule of law, no independent judiciary. Aung San Suu Kyi now sits in parliament but as part of a small minority. The second point is that, given the opacity of the regime, no outsider can be sure what prompted it to reach out to the democratic opposition at this moment. We would defer to Aung San Suu Kyi’s version of history, which gives a big dollop of credit to the economic sanctions that the United States and other nations imposed years ago. “Sanctions have helped,” Aung San Suu Kyi said during a recent visit to The Post. “Some people may disagree, but I believe sanctions have helped, especially on the political front. . . . The very fact that there’s a strong desire to have sanctions limited shows they were effective.” Interestingly, Aung San Suu Kyi said that she did not believe the sanctions affected Burma’s economy all that much; for the nation’s poverty, she blamed “internal factors,” which she did not name. But the isolation had a big political impact — worth recalling the next time foreign policy experts say, as they did so often in Burma’s case, that sanctions can never work, or can only work if they are applied with 100 percent effectiveness, or will harm only the nation’s poorest people. It seems likely that China’s increasing assertiveness made Burma’s leaders nervous, as it has made nervous the leaders of most East Asian and Southeast Asian countries. Thanks to strict sanctions, Burma’s leaders understood that, if they were to entice the West to play a balancing role, they would have to improve their human rights record. They may also have been motivated by a desire to improve the lot of their people, as Aung San Suu Kyi charitably suggested (though we can’t help noting that their people’s poverty hadn’t seemed to weigh on them much in preceding years). And they may indeed have been encouraged by the Obama administration’s engagement policy, which let them know that risks for reform would be reciprocated. More on this debate: [315]The Post’s View: What Aung San Suu Kyi could teach President Obama and Mitt Romney [316]Fred Hiatt: Burma’s champion comes to Washington [317]Jonathan Capehart: Lunch with Aung San Suu Kyi [318]Fred Hiatt: Learning compromise from Chief Justice Roberts and Aung San Suu Kyi * [319]Email * [320]Tumblr * [321]Reddit * [322]Stumbleupon * [323]Digg * [324]Delicious * [325]Discussion Policy | [326]FAQ | [327]About Discussions Loading... Comments Add your comment Read what others are saying [328]About Badges SuperFan Badge SuperFan badge holders consistently post smart, timely comments about Washington area sports and teams. [329]More about badges | [330]Request a badge Culture Connoisseur Badge Culture Connoisseurs consistently offer thought-provoking, timely comments on the arts, lifestyle and entertainment. 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Planned land reform could provide an opportunity to jump start development says the IMF (photo: Sam Diephuis/Corbis) Related Links * [18]Read the release * [19]Read the report * [20]Asia and the IMF * [21]2012 Annual Meetings in Tokyo * [22]Asia: Brighter prospects ECONOMIC HEALTH CHECK Myanmar Set for Economic Takeoff With Right Policies IMF Survey online May 7, 2012 * Myanmar faces historic opportunity to jump-start economic development * Appropriate reforms could significantly accelerate growth, lift living standards * Top priority is to establish macroeconomic stability beginning with exchange rate reform Myanmar's new government faces an historic opportunity to jump-start economic development, and lift living standards, says the IMF in its annual assessment of the Southeast Asian economy, which the government agreed to make public for the first time. The IMF report acknowledges the progress that has already been made in economic reforms over recent months, including steps to reform the exchange rate. It says that with appropriate policies, including a stable macroeconomic framework, the previously isolated country could fulfill its considerable potential, and deliver inclusive and sustainable growth. "Myanmar could see strong growth if it pursues the necessary reforms to take advantage of its rich natural resources, young labor force, and proximity to some of the world's most dynamic economies, including China and India," said Meral Karasulu, IMF mission chief for Myanmar. Against the background of political and economic changes in the country, growth in Myanmar is picking up modestly. In the last year, GDP growth is estimated to have increased to 5.3 percent, and is expected to rise to 5½ percent in FY 2011/12, and 6 percent the following year. Prioritizing reforms of the exchange rate regime Myanmar has a complex exchange rate system with many restrictions that give rise to multiple exchange rates. This system increases transactions costs, discourages foreign direct investment and trade, encourages informal activity, and has put appreciation pressure on Myanmar's currency. Last month, the authorities took the first step toward exchange rate reform by adopting a managed floating regime. With the help of the IMF, Myanmar plans to complete the process of exchange rate unification, including removing all exchange restrictions and eliminating multiple currency practices before their target date of end-2013 when the Southeast Asian Games are due to be held in the country. Paced reforms Myanmar's reform needs are wide-ranging and significant, and the IMF suggests the reform agenda will need to be appropriately paced. "Drastic, over-reaching reforms in many policy areas may not be realistic, given the capacity constraints and the need to coordinate across various institutions," said Karasulu. The IMF economists believe that any rapid reforms on a large scale could make any potential mistakes very costly. Although planned reforms will take time to implement, prioritization is essential to deliver tangible benefits to the majority of the population, they say. The International Monetary Fund, alongside other international financial institutions, is playing a large role in providing technical assistance, and working to ensure the most efficient delivery of assistance. "With the recent reform momentum, there is clear evidence that the Fund's advice is being actively sought and the IMF is already scaling up technical assistance in line with the authorities priorities," said Karasulu. Walking down the reform path "Unleashing Myanmar's high growth potential will require cross-cutting reforms and substantial technical assistance," says the Article IV report. Over the medium term, the IMF economists say the country needs to remove obstacles to growth including by modernizing the financial sector, fostering private sector growth by removing barriers to trade and investment, improving business climate and boosting agricultural productivity. The authorities in Myanmar are taking tentative steps down the reform path. Earlier this year, for the first time ever, the country's budget was discussed in the new parliament. The IMF welcomed the move as an opportunity to redefine fiscal priorities and focus on reducing poverty, building human capital, and developing infrastructure. Modernizing agriculture and the industrial sector This reprioritization would help Myanmar narrow its large gap with other peers in social outcomes. Myanmar's economic growth is narrowly-based, and the economy largely depends on energy and agriculture. Agricultural development is suppressed by poor access to credit, lack of private land ownership, and inadequate infrastructure and inputs. Lifting agricultural productivity will be essential for rural development and inclusive growth. The IMF believes that the planned land reform could provide an opportunity to jump start this process of development. Industrialization is one of the priorities in the authorities' new national economic plan. Up till now, despite its low wage advantage, the manufacturing sector has been stifled by poor infrastructure and know-how, low investment, and extensive administrative controls limiting private sector development. Supporting the private sector Cross-cutting reforms would be needed to support private sector development. A key priority is to reduce the cost of doing business and policy ambiguity by improving transparency, and improving infrastructure, says the IMF. The financial sector has a large role to play in facilitating economic development, say IMF economists. Currently, Myanmar's financial sector is small and repressed, with controls on financial intermediation. Modernization of the sector is essential to provide needed capital for development, and prepare the sector for membership of the ASEAN Economic Community. 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[144]Tajikistan + [145]Thailand + [146]Timor-Leste + [147]Tonga + [148]Turkmenistan + [149]Tuvalu + [150]Uzbekistan + [151]Vanuatu + [152]Viet Nam + + [153]Country Planning Documents * * [154]Countries and Regions * [155]Myanmar * [156]News Releases * Myanmar Will Be Middle Income Nation If Reforms Stay on Track - Report [157]Print Myanmar Will Be Middle Income Nation If Reforms Stay on Track - Report Date 20 August 2012 Countries [158]Myanmar Subjects [159]Show 4 tags [160]Economics; [161]Energy; [162]Finance; [163]Transport and ICT * [164]Facebook * [165]Twitter * [166]More BANGKOK, THAILAND – Myanmar could follow Asia’s fast growing economies and expand at 7% to 8% a year, become a middle income nation, and triple per capita income by 2030 if it can surmount substantial development challenges by further implementing across-the-board reforms, a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study says. [167][7800402334_c9ea60cffc_m.jpg] [168]Watch ADB Vice President Stephen Groff talk about Myanmar's prospects. “Myanmar’s strategic location, rich natural resources and abundant labor force leave it perfectly positioned to prosper from Asia’s dynamic economic growth,” said Stephen Groff, ADB’s Vice President for East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. “Myanmar could be Asia’s next rising star, but for this to happen there needs to be a firm and lasting commitment to reform.” The report, [169]Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges, is ADB’s first major assessment of the country since it began political and economic reforms in 2011. It notes that there is much work to be done: only a quarter of people in Myanmar have access to electricity and only one in five of the country’s roads are paved to all-weather standard. The report says concerted efforts are needed to increase transparency and enhance public services. Growth will depend on the country maintaining macroeconomic stability – including measures for low (under 6%) inflation and sustainable budgets, encouraging domestic savings, and investing in human capital and infrastructure. However, the report warns that the country may also face risks associated with economic liberalization if the process is not managed prudently. Vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation, as well as ongoing tension from internal conflicts could also derail the country’s future growth. To strengthen social cohesion and cut poverty rates, greater investments are needed in education, health and social services. Although more than half of Myanmar’s people rely on agriculture for a living, less than 20% of the country’s crop land is irrigated. The report notes that investment in irrigation and other inputs could dramatically expand crop yields and boost incomes. Myanmar’s location between the People’s Republic of China, India, and other South and Southeast Asian nations leaves it poised to benefit from rising regional trade, tourism and investment, and growing demand for energy and natural resources from its wealthier neighbors. To fully realize Myanmar’s potential, the report suggests the country must focus on strengthening connectivity — via infrastructure in transport, power and telecommunications services, as well as modernizing its financial sector. Its economic base must also broaden beyond agriculture to the manufacturing and service sectors to meet a growing demand for jobs. ADB recently established an office in Yangon, and is currently studying the possibility of resuming operations in Myanmar, which were halted in 1988. [170]About ADB Media Inquiries * Rush, Jason Tel: +632 632 4096 Mobile: +63 920 938 6490 [171]Email contact form Download File [172]Fast Facts: Myanmar in Transition Translations [173]ภาษาไทย Photo Gallery Students attend classes in a makeshift classroom in Hnarkaung Chaung primary school in Hnarkaung Chaung town in the Irrawady delta region. (Photo credit: VJ Villafranca) Related Links [174]Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges [175]Myanmar and ADB Related Media [176]Video: ADB's "Myanmar in Transition" Report Offers Fresh, In-Depth Analysis on Myanmar's Growth Potential [177]Podcast: Investment in Education and Human Development, Economic Reform and Foreign Direct Investment Key to Myanmar's Future Growth Copyright © 2013 Asian Development Bank. | [178]Terms of Use | [179]Website FAQs [180]Return to top * Resources for * [181]Bond Investors * [182]Businesses and Consultants * [183]Civil Society * [184]Job Seekers * [185]Journalists * [186]Private Sector Project Investors * Other ADB Sites * [187]ADB Compliance Review Panel * [188]ADB Institute (ADBI) * [189]Asia Pathways (ADBI Blog) * [190]AidFlows.org * [191]Asia Regional Integration Center * [192]Asian Bonds Online * [193]Asian International Economists Network Asian Development Bank Headquarters: 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550, Metro Manila, Philippines Tel: + 63 2 632 4444 Fax: + 63 2 636 2444 [194]Contacts e-Alerts Sign up to our [195]e-mail alerts or subscribe to our [196]RSS feeds to get the latest information from ADB. 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By [13]Gabriele Koehler | [14]International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) | January 9, 2012 [id=Picture] CREDIT: [15]Jolie ([16]CC). After decades of isolation imposed by major OECD countries out of concern over human rights violations, Myanmar has emerged as a new darling of the West. There has been an accelerating succession of visits by senior officials including the U.S. Secretary of State, the UK Foreign Secretary, and high-level government officials from France, Norway, and other countries. The UN Secretary-General may pay a visit, and the World Bank is being urged to resume work there, which had not been possible due to the international sanctions policy. New groups of investors are waiting to enter the country as soon as possible. This sudden enthusiasm, after years of ostracizing the country and depriving it of development cooperation beyond humanitarian relief, is a much welcome response to changes introduced by the government that came into power in 2011 in an orchestrated election process. Recent reforms include the release of some political prisoners, the reconstitution of the Myanmar human rights commission, the weakening of censorship and an opening of internet access, the adoption of a law allowing trade unions and the right to strike, the suspension of an environmentally damaging hydropower project with China, and other steps. The dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who until 2010 had been under house arrest almost continuously since being denied election victory in 1990 and who accordingly refused any interaction with the oppressive government, has adapted her political stance since mid-2011, meeting with President Thein Sein first quietly and then publicly. In November she announced that her party would be willing to stand in the 2012 by-elections. One hopes that the about-face of Western powers is a genuine commitment to supporting peace and democratic reforms. But one fears that in reality the change of position is driven as much by the awareness that China, Thailand, Singapore, and India have been benefiting from the abundant natural resources of Myanmar--natural gas, hydropower potential, gemstones, real estate for industrial production zones or tourism, and the country's geostrategic position with access to the Indian Ocean--while businesses in the United States and Europe were missing out on very lucrative deals and investment opportunities. Political and economic reforms are intermeshed, and past decades have shown time and again that the important movement to ensure civil liberties, democracy, and human rights is very often confused and conflated with measures to introduce neoliberal capitalism and prize open a country for the economic interests of individual and multinational investors. Such was the case in Eastern and Central Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union: 20 years later, the populations in most of those countries are still reeling from the adverse effects of privatization--which benefited insiders and created new oligopolies--and of deregulation--which dismantled core public services in health, education, and infrastructure; canceled crucial social transfers such as pension commitments; and in general hollowed out and destroyed government functions that were vital to the delivery or regulation of public goods and to efficient and transparent public administration. These measures were sold to the then-emerging democracies as the only available remedy to address statist oppression, corruption, cronyism, and inefficiency--instead of reforming the state, introducing accountability, and preserving and enhancing public goods and services. There is a risk that Myanmar will be exposed to the same set of nefarious policy ideas, especially now that many of the welfare states in Europe have themselves embarked on a brutal course of fiscal austerity with massive public sector cutbacks and a freezing of wages and social transfers. Yet as a country endowed with valuable resources, Myanmar has the means to use its policy space to innovate. As leading Burmese economist U Myint, head of the country's new economic advisory board, has put it: Myanmar is a rich country with poor people. It has the fiscal resources to upgrade socioeconomic policy and macroeconomic policy around objectives of social justice and economic development. It could introduce proactive labor policies to create decent work in the public sector; to build infrastructure in the rural areas and upgrade public transport; to finance and lead extension and innovation in the rural economy; and to create centers of research and development excellence. All of these areas have been seriously neglected for decades--displaced by investment in the military, oppressive wars against ethnic minorities, the police state apparatus, and most recently industrial parks which concentrate resources rather than spread employment and technology across the country. Myanmar could consider an enlightened form of government-led "industrial strategy," building on some of the East and South Asian policy paths, defining and costing out its economic development options. Such an approach would, for example, selectively promote sectors and areas for domestic and international entrepreneurship and investment while demanding that they ensure employment, decent work, learning, and innovation transfers. The recent introduction of labor standards would fit in constructively with such a strategy, if the population, now subsisting on one of the lowest per capita incomes in Southeast Asia, could benefit from decent employment and work conditions, and enjoy wages and salaries commensurate with the country's overall economic wealth. Myanmar also has the means, if it so decides, to universalize social protection. This is necessary from a social justice point of view--currently, only 1 percent of the population is covered by social security. Social security benefits for the government sector have recently been increased, and a few groups receive poverty- or emergency-related income transfers, but there is no systematic health insurance or income poverty response. One interesting idea that is currently capturing the imagination of global development policy discourse is the UN's [17]social protection floors initiative, which is a concept that proposes a guaranteed basic income plus guaranteed access to high-quality, inclusive social services. Myanmar could explore a "floor" specific to its citizens' interests. The combination of a decent work and social protection agenda with an industrial strategy could help address Myanmar's dire poverty, income inequality, and stark urban-rural disparities. It may also address the pervasive and violent forms of ethnic social exclusion in the country's mountainous regions, and the lucrative but pernicious narcotics trade. Taken together these three agendas could be a tool for social inclusion, facilitating environmentally sustainable production. In short: Myanmar has the opportunity to create a democratic developmental welfare state, with its citizens emerging from poverty and political oppression, thereby inspiring many other countries. Read More: [18]Business, [19]Communication, [20]Democracy, [21]Development, [22]Diplomacy, [23]Economy, [24]Governance, [25]Human Rights, [26]Jobs, [27]Trade, [28]Burma, [29]Asia Related Resources: [30]>[31]< * [32][id=Picture] [33]Digital Rations * [34][id=Picture] [35]China's State Capitalism Poses Ethical Challenges * [36][id=Picture] [37]Bangladesh: The Silicon Valley of Social Innovation * [38][id=Picture] [39]Humanitarian Aid Politicized * [40][id=Picture] [41]Better Safe than Sorry * [42][id=Picture] [43]Convicts for Export * [44][id=Picture] [45]The MDGs and Social Policy Innovations from South Asia * [46][id=Picture] [47]Obama's ASEAN Policy Looks Auspicious * [48][id=Picture] [49]Ethics Be Dammed? 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[160]Economics * [161]Facebook * [162]Twitter * [163]More MANILA, PHILIPPINES – Myanmar is poised for a period of rising economic growth, but the country needs to embark on a comprehensive program of reforms to realize its potential and reduce widespread poverty, according to a forecast of the country’s growth, contained in a new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The [164]Asian Development Outlook 2012 (ADO 2012) projects 6% GDP growth for Myanmar in FY2012, up from an estimated 5.5% in FY2011. Myanmar’s economic prospects are bolstered by recent policy reforms and projected increases in gas exports. “Myanmar is making a lot of the right moves to revitalize its economy, laying a foundation for further foreign investment and commodity exports with currency changes, land reforms and tax incentives,” said Craig Steffensen, ADB’s Thailand Country Director. “For Myanmar to ensure growth is sustainable and benefits all of the country’s people, the government will have to accelerate reforms and enhance investment in education, health and infrastructure.” Myanmar is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one in four of the country’s 60 million people living in poverty. Three out of four people have no access to electricity. ADO 2012 says that reforms needed to stimulate growth and significantly reduce poverty include strengthening public institutions, expanding access to finance, and better workforce skills training. A simpler and broader tax structure with greater emphasis on direct taxation would bolster government revenue and be fairer to the poor. More areas of the economy should be opened to the private sector, the report notes, along with improved regulations, laws and policies for businesses. Closer linkages with neighbors would better enable Myanmar’s businesses to participate in regional markets, as well as global production chains. The report notes that the move to a managed float of the kyat, which took effect 1 April 2012, is a promising reform towards exchange rate unification and transparency. This measure will expose inefficiencies in state enterprises that dominate parts of the economy, however, necessitating further reforms including transparent subsidies and possible privatization. International tourist arrivals rose by 26% in FY2011, partially in response to political and economic reforms. Gas exports increased by nearly 15% to an estimated $3 billion. The report notes that a possible easing of economic sanctions could lead to even higher levels of trade and investment. 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[37]Digg * [38]Facebook * [39]reddit * [40]StumbleUpon * [41]Twitter * [42]Email * [43]Print Could Burma be the next emerging market miracle? By Lucy Hooker Business reporter, BBC World Service, Rangoon elderly woman wades through paddy field Not just green shoots, Burma's economy is set to bloom [44]Continue reading the main story [45]Burma's Transition * [46]Perils of embracing Burma * [47]Displaced and divided in Rakhine * [48]Ex-general rides wave of change * [49]Slow progress on ethnic conflicts In Rangoon's hotel lobbies anticipation is high. Brash Australian miners rub shoulders with hard-nosed American private equity investors. Indonesian infrastructure specialists and Japanese salesmen scout out the terrain. Everyone here is eager to be first out of the starting blocks as the economy of Burma, a previously isolated country, opens up for business. The opportunities abound, in raw materials such as gems, timber, rubber and gas, but also in catering for a population of 55 million in need of everything from healthcare to smartphones. "I think this is the last virgin market left in the world, the last untapped market," says Vinod Chugani, an American-educated Singaporean. "Twelve years ago, when I was in China, I felt the same rush." Malaysian businessmen raise hands at business conference in Rangoon Hands up who's ready to do business in Burma Vinod Chugani is here to sell Panasonic's range of multi-line phones, rice cookers and projectors. "There is a massive race going on. It's intense," he says. "This is one of last frontiers, along with North Korea and to some extent Iran," says Romain Caillaud, who heads the Rangoon office of Vriens and Partners, advising multinationals entering Burma. Burma also sits at a key geographic junction. "Just look at the map and you'll see the location is strategic, at the crossroad between India, China, Thailand, in the middle of one of the fastest growing regions in the world," he says. Piles of cash After 50 years the generals who governed Burma have stepped back and handed power to a nominally civilian government. They have also begun the first tentative steps in reforming the economy. And they have been rewarded with the suspension of sanctions by the West. But 50 years of isolation from the global economy has taken its toll, above all on the financial system. bank workers put piles of cash through mechanical counting machines inside Yoma Bank Banking cash in Rangoon is a big job At the main Rangoon branch of Yoma bank, customers wander in with plastic bags full of bank notes. Their voices are barely audible above the whirring and clicking of mechanical counting machines, lined up like washing machines in a launderette. A dozen staff work their way through the stacks piled high on the tables. American financial sanctions and a home-grown banking crisis have undermined Burma's banking system, so that now most people simply keep their money in cash. If you want to buy a car you go to the showroom with a box full of notes. If you want to buy a house you drive over a car full of money. There are a handful of cash machines now in Rangoon, but none that work for foreigners. Credit cards can be used, for a stiff fee, only at a few top-range hotels. All this may soon change, with the lifting of American financial sanctions. But the rudimentary banking system is not the only obstacle to doing business. Capacity The word on everybody's lips is "capacity". The biggest concern is that Burma lacks the human resources to cope with this tidal wave of change, at every level from the government administration to secretarial staff. Young Burmese nuns crossing a road It could take another generation for Burma to be ready for this change Peter Thein founded Myanmar Yellow Pages 20 years ago and now also runs a fast-growing market research company. He says newcomers can get a shock on arrival due to the high price of property and the lack of qualified staff. "Most of the people with any brains have left," he says. Hence, although he has 10,000 potential employees on his recruitment database, he says only 10-15% of them are employable. "One of the most difficult things is to try to get my staff to think," he says. "There's no initiative because the education system has never taught the meaning of thinking." On top of all that, there is the lack of clarity over the rule of law, an intermittent electricity supply, crumbling infrastructure and what Mr Thein calls the practice of paying "tea money" - small bribes to expedite the cumbersome bureaucracy. An Asian tiger? So, can Burma grasp the opportunity now unfolding? Burma's domestic industry - hampered, but also sheltered, by the years of isolation - now faces the chill wind of competition. At Myint Soe's garment factory on the outskirts of Rangoon, rows of women hunch over sewing machines and irons under neon lights, pressing, folding, hemming, in stifling heat. women at sewing machines in garment factory Garment workers eye a better future without sanctions This factory used to supply Kmart and Walmart in the United States. After sanctions were imposed two-thirds of the workforce were laid off. "I think we can restore our contracts which we lost after the sanctions," says an upbeat Myint Soe. "Foreign investors will bring markets with them and technology." Clearly, Burma will have to compete primarily on the price of labour. "We compare with Bangladesh but are lower than Cambodia wages, so we can compete," says Myint Soe. International business entrepreneur Serge Pun owns property developments across Asia as well as his Burmese investments from banking to golf courses. He is also convinced Burma's future is bright. "I have no doubt that Myanmar will be a new tiger," he says. "Burmese people are very entrepreneurial." But in answer to the question of how long it take Burma to catch up, Romain Caillaud says: "A very long time. "Maybe in 20 years it will be at the level of Vietnam today in terms of infrastructure, telecommunications, financial services. "Companies that come shouldn't expect to make money quickly." More on This Story [50]Burma's Transition * [51]A woman folding flags of the US at a shop in Rangoon, 16 November 2012 Perils of embracing Burma The BBC's Jonathan Head examines the reasons behind US President Barack Obama's trip to Burma, a first by a sitting American president. ______________________________________________________________ * [52]Displaced and divided in Rakhine * [53]Ex-general rides wave of change * [54]Slow progress on ethnic conflicts Background * [55]Profile: Thein Sein * [56]Profile: Aung San Suu Kyi * [57]Timeline: Reforms in Burma * [58]Burma profile Watch/Listen * [59]Suu Kyi makes landmark broadcast Watch * [60]What now for Burma's '88 Generation? Watch Around the BBC * [61]BBC - BBC World Service Programmes - Business Daily * [62]BBC Burmese The BBC is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites Share this page * [63]Delicious * [64]Digg * [65]Facebook * [66]reddit * [67]StumbleUpon * [68]Twitter * [69]Email * [70]Print [71]More Business stories [72]RSS * [73]Mark Carney Banks face 'decisive' two years The incoming governor of the Bank of England says the next two years will be "decisive" for bank reform and warns central banks alone cannot eliminate economic risks. * [74]Apple loses most valuable crown * [75]Banks to pay back ECB loans early Top Stories * [76]A minibus is set on fire by protesters outside the Port Said prison on January 26, 2013 Fans verdicts spark Egypt unrest * [77]French force in Mali moves on Gao * [78]Azarenka defends Australian title * [79]Zeman wins Czech presidency poll * [80]Anonymous hacks US agency website Features & Analysis * [81]One million pound bank note Big money Why does the Bank of England have £1m notes? ______________________________________________________________ * [82]A 32oz soda in Manhattan, New York War on soft drinks Is a US ban on large cola a civil rights issue? ______________________________________________________________ * [83]Sheikh Hamad Al Thani speaks at the UN General Assembly (25 September 2012) Playing fair? 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[112]10: Gary the Goat walks free from court Watch Elsewhere on the BBC * [113]Grace Amey-Obeng (left) and some students from her college Black is beautiful The woman who made a fortune fighting skin-whitening creams in Africa Programmes * [114]A bicycle wheel Click Watch How peer-to-peer services are helping to solve some of America’s West Coast transport woes Services * [115] Mobile * [116] Connected TV * [117] News feeds * [118] Alerts * [119] E-mail news About BBC News * [120]Editors' blog * [121]BBC College of Journalism * [122]News sources * [123]Media Action BBC links * + [124]Mobile site + [125]Terms of Use + [126]About the BBC * + [127]Advertise With Us + [128]Privacy + [129]BBC Help * + [130]Ad Choices + [131]Cookies + [132]Accessibility Help * + [133]Parental Guidance + [134]Contact Us BBC BBC © 2013 [135]The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more. This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. 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[15]ANN * [16]CLASSIFIEDS * [17]CSR * [18]TOP40 * [19]JOBS * [20]CAT & NAT * [21]PHUKET * [22]STATE OF THE NATION * [23]MORE [arrow_v2.png] + [24]ASEAN TV + [25]E-Newspaper + [26]Elegant Time + [27]Horoscope + [28]E-Card + [29]Facebook + [30]Twitter + [31]Youtube + [32]SMS + [33]RSS + [34]Sitemap Search...___________ go IFRAME: [35]http://www.nationmultimedia.com/new/apps/truehitsiframe.php?pag ename=Opinion January 26, 2013, 7:49 pm * [36]PRINT SUBSCRIPTION * [37]| * [38]DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION * [39]| * [40]SIGN IN * [41]| [42]opinion [43]Smaller [44]Larger [45]Home » [46]opinion » Opportunities for growth as Myanmar opens watchdog Opportunities for growth as Myanmar opens Nophakhun Limsamarnphun nophakhun@nationgroup.com April 21, 2012 1:00 am [47]Arrow Prev [48]Arrow Next Myanmar's April 1 parliamentary by-elections have proved to be fruitful as far as the country's re-joining the rest of the world is concerned. The latest positive reaction came from European Union, which has indicated it will suspend all sanctions against Myanmar for one year. The EU measure is seen as a carrot for the regime in Myanmar, which for the first time in decades decided to by-elections and release a large number of political prisoners. The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won most of the constituencies in the by-elections, paving the way for her party to enter Parliament, which has over 600 seats, most of which are still controlled by the military under the leadership of pro-reform President Thein Sein. The EU's suspension of sanctions is conditional upon the sustainability of reforms promised by the regime, and there will be a review after six months. Yet, the move will allow all economic and related activities between the EU and Myanmar, except arms sales, to resume, meaning that around 800 European firms will be able to return to do business with Myanmar. This will be a potential bonanza for many European firms hit hard by the recent euro-zone debt crisis. Suu Kyi herself has endorsed the conditional suspension of sanctions. Besides the EU, the US also has removed some financial restrictions on Myanmar, and Americans are now free to make financial transactions in the country for projects that "meet basic human needs" or promote democracy. Last year's visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton marked the start of Myanmar's reforms, with the April by-elections being the first major event. The next milestone will be Myanmar's hosting of the Southeast Asian Games in 2013. Afterwards, the country will chair the 10-member Asean grouping in 2014. The following year, Myanmar will join the Asean Economic Community (AEC) as one of four new members, including Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. In 2015, reforms will be in an advanced stage as Myanmar plans to hold its first-ever open general election in decades. For Thailand, the opening of Myanmar can be seen as a great opportunity to re-balance the Thai economy, as Myanmar can be a major source of cheaper labour, raw materials and natural resources as well as a major market with its population of over 60 million. Some of Thailand's labour-intensive manufacturing industries will be more competitive once they relocate to the neighbouring country, while Thai firms will have convenient access to a large market which is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. In other words, Myanmar has the potential to be the next major Asian economy. As members of the AEC, both Thailand and Myanmar, along with Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, can form a competitive mainland network of the AEC single market and production platform. This is evidenced by the emerging east-west and north-south economic corridors. From east to west, the Dawei deep-sea port and industrial development zone on the Thai-Burmese border serves as one of the key links that will allow businesses and industries to tap the economic potential of India, Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. From north to south, economic integration starts from southern China down to Singapore, encompassing Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia. China's proposed high-speed railway project, criss-crossing most of the Indochinese countries, is among the major mega-infrastructure links. 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[59]Advertisement [60]Banner NewsRegions[61]AsiaBurma’s Reform: an Opportunity or a Threat? Saturday, 26 January 2013 Burma’s Reform: an Opportunity or a Threat? [62]E-mail [63]Print [64]PDF Written by Iqbal Ahmed, Guest Contributor | 26 April 2012 IFRAME: [65]http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://www.diplomatic ourier.com/news/regions/asia/944&layout=standard&show_faces=1&width=300 &action=like&font=arial&colorscheme=light&height=23 Burma - Suzan Black Luminaries smelled blood. Hillary Clinton, Kevin Rudd, and David Cameron came and went, openly advocating for continued democratic reform. All met with Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi. In the aftermath of grandiose state visits from such luminaries to Burma ([66]officially known as Myanmar), Aung Sun Suu Kyi and military leaders face a long and difficult task to bring about political, social, and economic reforms in a country that has remained under a brutal military junta and isolated from most of the world since 1960. In politics, relationships matter less. Interest matters most. U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, a high-ranking Republican, recently expressed his glowing enthusiasm and hopes for the reform in Burma. He thought Burma is on the path to achieve something that once seemed impossible. Ironically, Sen. McConnell is also the “architect” of the economic sanctions against Burma. The U.S. and Western interest in Burma is palpable in light of Burma’s strategic geographic location, its ties with China, and its natural resources. The integrity of this interest must be tested against what is really at skate for Burma. Opportunities The path to reform is an opportunity for Burma and its citizens to restore human rights and democratic values, to open trades, and to transition into a civil government. Democratic reform ought to take place in the context of Burma’s own social, economic, and political conditions. But effective reform depends on various factors. First, the people’s voice must be empowered over the military rulers. Years of military dictatorship has separated Burmese people from its rulers. Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won 43 out of 45 electoral seats in March, and she will have a seat in the parliament. Though the army still controls 80 percent of the seats, the mere presence of Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi in the parliament will change the dynamics of the political scene. Most importantly, she will represent the people of Burma. Second, seek trusting support from the military leaders who believe in reform. The power and influence of the military cannot be ignored nor can it be removed hastily from national power. Thein Sien and Thein Htay, both from the military, have committed to building infrastructure, tackling corruption, ending human rights issues, and [67]other development issues. Burma cannot afford to lose this momentum of commitment and support from the military. Third, extend and establish trade with the foreign partners. Burma is rich in natural resources. Despite prolonged sanctions from the West, Burmese military rulers continued to trade with China, India, and ASEAN nations. The economic sanctions did not have the same effect as it did against North Korea. The point is sanctions do not always prevent the ruling party from gaining economic means. Given Burma’s abundance in natural resources and a competitive labor market, the reformers must seek bilateral trade and promote foreign investments in Burma to create growth. Fourth, Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi must be recognized as a legitimate leader. She is a true symbol of and the power behind Burma’s democratic reform, and military generals must work with her to ensure she remains that way. If reforms unfold, she is in a position to be elected the leader of the country, where her fame, persona, popularity, and leadership can propel Burma into a stable democratic state. However, for Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi and the Burmese military generals, the reform may come at a price – dealing with foreign interests. Burma is strategically important to the U.S. and the West, but it does not have the economic strength to revive its post-reform economy alone. Burmese reformers cannot give in too much nor can they afford to be too rigid. So, Burma faces external and internal threats to its democratic reform. Threats - Inside and Out Burma’s relationship at the nexus between the U.S. and China is a political concern. During the 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. used Burma as a political battleground to deter China from [68]expanding its influence, but times have now changed - China, then, did not own U.S. debts. The U.S. and its Western allies must reconsider their views towards the Burma-China relationship. The Burmese reformers and their Western counterparts must push for a renewed diplomatic and trade relations between China and Burma. Internally, Burmese military generals are powerful, wily, and [69]well trained, some even by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). However, the transformation of power within military is slow but visible. According to [70]a report by Bangkok Post, 54-year-old Min Aung Hlaing, who is “part of a younger generation of Burma generals," has presumably taken over the army. This is a welcoming sign for democratic reform. A hasty move to oust military from power would be counterproductive. Burma’s strategic importance is crucial to Western diplomacy. It must use it wisely and effectively to build social, political, and economic infrastructure to spur growth, reduce unemployment, and extend democratic rights to its citizens. Luminaries may soon return for a revisit to a new Burma. Iqbal Ahmed is a public policy graduate from George Mason University in Arlington, VA, where he currently resides. He has written for the Diplomatic Courier, Centre for Research on Globalization, New Geography, Eurasia Review, Foreign Policy Journal, International Policy Digest, Global Politician, and NPR’s “This I Believe.” Photo by Suzan Black. IFRAME: [71]http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://www.diplomatic ourier.com/news/regions/asia/944&layout=standard&show_faces=1&width=300 &action=like&font=arial&colorscheme=light&height=23 [DIPLOMATIC COURIER] Copyright 2006-2012 The Diplomatic Courier™. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission. 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Once it was risky to even say her name, now you can buy an Aung Sun Suu Kyi [42]t-shirt on the streets of Yangon. Suu Kyi has long been a symbol of hope for Burmese people; [43]David Cameron described her as a “shining example for people who yearn for freedom, for democracy, for progress” in his recent visit to the country. The [44]landslide victory for Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party in April’s by-election has certainly given Burmese people real hope. Whilst parliament remains dominated by the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and its allies, the prospect of open political debate is for the first time in decades starting to look realistic. There is talk of a palpable yet tentative sense that [45]political change is afoot. The end of 2010 marked [46]Burma’s first election in 20 years and the long-entrenched military junta began to transfer its powers to a civilian government. Critics described the move as a proxy for continued military rule and say the vote was neither free nor fair. Yet perhaps to the surprise of many, the government has enacted a [47]wave of reforms, freed some [48]political prisoners, opened up a [49]direct dialogue with the NLD party, and has halted the construction of the widely [50]criticised Myitsone Dam – suggesting that they might finally be more willing to listen to both Burmese and international opinion. Whilst momentum for political change slowly builds, the Burmese economy is roaring to life: “Myanmar’s new government faces a historic opportunity to jump-start development and lift living standards. Myanmar could become the next economic frontier in Asia if, with appropriate reforms, it can turn its rich natural resources, young labor force, and proximity to some of the most dynamic economies, to its advantage.” This was the resounding conclusion of the [51]IMF’s May 2012 report. Strong medium term growth is predicated on a substantial increase in natural gas export revenues in the coming 5 years with the expected completion of Shwe and Zawtika offshore gas projects. The IMF’s figures put into perspective the growing importance of natural resource revenues to the economy of Burma. Although there are uncertainties over the extent that informal payments have funded the government in the past, natural gas exports are expected to contribute between 17%-20% to government revenues over the next five years. This year natural gas exports alone will officially contribute $2 billion to government revenue, and this figure will grow up towards $3 billion per year by 2018. By the standards of the world’s oil and gas big hitters an extra $2 billion is a mere blip on the accounts. But for a low income country with a government revenue of only $5.5 billion last year – it really is a significant amount. Add onto that the revenues due to come in from oil (expected to be [52]pumped at up to 240,000 bpd by CNPC), [53]gold, [54]copper, [55]nickel, [56]forestry activities and the Burmese economy will become increasingly reliant on natural resources. [By the way, no prizes for spotting the theme in the 5 links above] The most important factor here is that the extractive industries are becoming ever more crucial to the political economy of change in Burma. Military cronies have for decades benefitted from the informal flows of money from natural resources. As a whole range of Wikileaks cables reveal, the USDP has always had a [57]firm grip on the extractive industries. Not only do they make profits on exports, but they [58]benefit from payments by the international companies exploring and extracting their natural resources. Whether it’s a $7.5 million compulsory signatory bonus, or $5 million for cancellation fee, these are direct flows into government coffers, no questions asked. Whilst this stranglehold on Burma’s most lucrative sector continues, citizens remain in the dark as to how the great wealth that accrues from their natural resources is spent. Politics may be slowly changing in Burma. But so long as it controls the economic engine of the extractive industries, the government – not the Burmese people – will continue to decide Burma’s future. The IMF hint at the need for reform, placing a caveat on their growth predictions: Burma’s GDP is forecast to grow at 6% next year “if it pursues necessary reforms to take advantage of its rich natural resources”, said [59]Meral Karasulu, IMF mission chief for Myanmar. But I don’t think it’s enough for the IMF to recommend reforms that simply ‘take advantage’ of natural resources. As Burma steps tentatively towards a new chapter in its history, it must put the extractive industries at the centre of governance reforms. Aung San Suu Kyi emphasised the importance of transparency and accountability following the 2010 elections, and highlighted the crucial role it plays in fostering good governance of Burma’s natural resources (at [60]5:50 mins): “It is because the public does not know what is happening to the revenues that we can’t do anything about using them more effectively… what we’ve always said is that there should be transparency and accountability to make sure that whatever deals there are, that they are to be to the profit, the benefit of the people”. There are [61]growing calls for the EITI to be introduced in Burma, and this would surely be a sensible step. Leading economist Joseph Stiglitz made clear his support for the EITI in Burma during a recent visit, arguing that the process would ensure that the “revenues that belong to the people, go to the people.” Hanna Hindstrom from Democratic Voice of Burma put forward [62]the case for EITI in Burma forcibly on the eve of the April 2012 elections: “If Burma truly hopes to embrace democracy, let alone become the ‘next economic frontier of Asia,’ transparency must be placed at the heart of its agenda. The EITI both can, and must, form part of that process.” Following her [63]visit to Burma at the end of 2011, EITI Policy Advisor Dyyeke Rogan said that in a small step towards change, ministers are starting to discuss the prospect of accounting for natural resource revenues. “We have to account for the money, particularly the revenue from sale of gas”, said U Win Tun, Minister for Environmental Conservation and Forestry. The political landscape of Burma is changing, and economic momentum is generating hope that Burma’s dark days are over. But for as long as the government’s grip on the extractive industries continues, the chances of revenues from natural resources being used in an equitable fashion remain slim. The time is right for the IMF, international community and Burmese civil society to push the idea of extractive industry transparency and provide thought leadership on how we might achieve this in the context of Burma. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * LinkedIn close * IFRAME: [64]//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://openoil.net/201 2/05/10/a-window-of-opportunity-in-burma/&send=false&layout=button_ count&show_faces=false&action=like&colorscheme=light&font * * * [65]Tweet Category: [66]Asia, [67]Blogs, [68]Burma · Tags: [69]eiti, [70]natural gas, [71]oil, [72]oil revenues, [73]transparency Comments are closed. 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By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [91]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [92]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [93]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [94]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [95]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [96]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [97]cookies information for more details This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our [98]cookies information for more details Relations with Myanmar Less thunder out of China China has been stung by a sudden reversal of fortune in its own back yard Oct 6th 2012 | BEIJING AND RUILI |[99]From the print edition * * [100]Tweet VISITORS to the showroom of the “Everything is Good” jade company in the Chinese border town of Ruili are swiftly steered towards one particular lump of black rock among many thousands on display. It looks innocuous enough, but a small slash on one side, revealing a translucent green and purple interior, betrays its true worth: this is the highest-quality jade from Myanmar, and to discerning Chinese customers that means the best in the world. The price tag is $1.2m. There are hundreds of such shops in Ruili, many of them turning the jade into ordinary bracelets and pendants, valued as lucky charms by Chinese shoppers. For the Chinese, it is just good business; selling the stones, fossils and wood of Myanmar. To many Burmese, however, it represents nothing less than the plunder of their country. Since Myanmar was subjected to Western economic sanctions in the mid-1990s, China has had virtually a free rein. The booming economy of Ruili is testimony to that. But the Burmese grumble that whereas the Chinese businessmen of Yunnan have made fortunes marking up their imports, often in collusion with corrupt Burmese officials, most Burmese have benefited little from the cross-border trade. In this section * [101]The state advances * [102]Happening * Less thunder out of China [103]Reprints Related topics * [104]Government and politics * [105]Politics * [106]Myanmar * [107]World politics * [108]Asia-Pacific politics None of this used to matter much until the stirrings of political reform in Myanmar. Together with trade, the other traditional Chinese interest along their border has been stability. The Chinese authorities have long sought to contain spillover from battles between the armed militias of the Kachin and Karen ethnic groups and the Myanmar government; they have also tried to stop the flow of drugs from neighbouring Shan state into China. The recent high-profile trial of a Shan drug lord, Naw Kham, in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, demonstrates how seriously the Chinese authorities take this threat, and how influential they have become in the region. But in focusing on these issues, the Chinese missed the bigger picture of how resentments were building towards their presence in, and economic exploitation of, Myanmar. The result is that what the Chinese took to be a solid, mutually beneficial relationship with the Burmese has exploded in their faces—with long-term consequences for Myanmar, the balance of power in South-East Asia and the whole way that China does business with poorer countries. Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Peking University, says that the “alarm bells started ringing” for the Chinese over Myanmar with the abrupt suspension of the Myitsone dam project just over a year ago. Costing $3.6 billion, this was the largest of several dams that Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were building on the Irrawaddy river in Kachin state. The Chinese had assumed that such development work would be welcomed by the Burmese. To many Burmese, however, Myitsone came to represent everything that they hate about the unequal terms of trade between resource-rich Myanmar and its resource-hungry neighbour. Villages were to be displaced and land flooded to make way for the dam, yet most of the electricity was earmarked to go to China, leaving the local Kachin people little better off than before. Thus when the new Burmese president, Thein Sein, suspended construction of the dam, at one stroke he asserted his credentials in Myanmar as a man prepared to listen to his own people and stand up to the exploitative Chinese. It was an astute domestic political move and a milestone in the country’s unfolding reform programme. Scholars and officials in China, however, still talk of their “shock” and “surprise” at a decision for which they were utterly unprepared and which they are still trying to digest. In retrospect, explains Mr Zhu, the Chinese mistake in Myanmar was to focus only on building relationships with government officials, without paying any attention to “domestic political nuances”. Thus China missed the vital shifts in policies, words and political thinking that they might have picked up had they listened to voices other than the government’s and engaged the country at a local level. This was stupid, says Mr Zhu: “It’s a big lesson, and we have to learn from it.” This lack of political antennae on the ground is, perhaps, inevitable given the standard Chinese policy of “non-interference” in other countries’ internal affairs. Too often, it seems, this merely encourages wilful ignorance—which is, indeed, much in evidence in Ruili. The local Chinese know almost nothing about Myanmar, other than the fact that it is poor and, they believe, dangerous. Be nicer As one Chinese expert on the country’s aid policy, Zhang Xiaomin of Beijing Foreign Studies University, points out, China has already run into some of these issues in Africa. But their experience in Myanmar has really crystallised the problem, he says. As a result, the Chinese government is now telling businesses—especially SOEs—operating overseas to be more respectful of local customs and people, and to invest more in what Westerners would call corporate social responsibility. Thus, for instance, the China National Petroleum Corporation, which is building a controversial oil pipeline across Myanmar from the west coast to the border at Ruili (and then on into China), is now building lots of schools in villages near the pipeline. The Chinese are largely right in this analysis of what went wrong in Myanmar, but it is not the whole story. The Burmese also complained that for all the roads and bridges constructed, the Chinese were unable, or unwilling, to provide other, more sophisticated, services such as banking or advice on issues such as government administration, the sort of soft-power issues at which Western countries excel. Indeed, for many Chinese foreign-policy experts the other worrying aspect of China’s stumble in Myanmar is that Beijing’s loss has been Washington’s gain. In an era of renewed tension between America and China in the region, Myanmar’s recent opening up is thus usually interpreted by these experts as a tilt towards the West, all part of America’s “pivot” towards Asia. Indeed, the more conspiratorial-minded Chinese ascribe the changes in Myanmar entirely to the machinations of a resurgent America determined to contain the rise of China. A further concern, as another Chinese expert puts it, is that a democratic movement in Myanmar would, in some way, “influence the situation in China”. All in all, the democratic transformation of Myanmar has been a searing experience for the Chinese government. At least, however, they look set to draw some lessons from it all. [109]From the print edition: China * [110]Recommend 70 * * [111]Tweet * [112]Submit to reddit * * [113]View all comments (154) Related items TOPIC: [114]Government and politics » * [115]Inflation: Shrink this e-dollar * [116]Russian politics: Making Moscow more pleasant * [117]The fiscal cliff: Barack Obama's dual agenda TOPIC: [118]Politics » * [119]India's BJP: On a roll * [120]The editors review 2012: United States: A feeble campaign * [121]This week in print: Paraguay's awful history, corruption in Brazil, Mexican politics and a new Nova Scotia TOPIC: [122]Myanmar » * [123]The world this year * [124]Myanmar’s humanitarian crises: Exiled to nowhere * [125]Politics this week TOPIC: [126]World politics » * [127]South Korea's presidential election: A homecoming * [128]Poland's past: A difficult film * [129]How to win elections: Baracking the voters More related topics: * [130]Asia-Pacific politics * [131]Chinese politics * [132]Myanmar politics [133]Want more? 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(file) * [95]Tweet * * * [96]Pin It Multimedia Audio * Supporting Women And Girls In Burma + [97]Listen + [98]Playlist TEXT SIZE [99]- [100]+ 07/30/2012 A generation of young women in Burma is energized and optimistic about recent political transitions. This was the report from U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Melanne Verveer upon her return from the country recently. “Many of the young women have started or are participating in NGOs advocating civic activism and social entrepreneurship,” she said. “They were impressive in their independent thinking and can-do spirit. They’ve become increasingly empowered to embrace their rights, whether in the home, the workplace, in community and political activities or at the university.” Women in Burma can look forward to some help in their efforts thanks to a new public-private partnership through U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s International Fund for Women and Girls. The Abbott Fund, a global, non-profit philanthropic foundation, has announced a $1 million partnership with the Secretary’s Fund to support grassroots organizations that are working to advance health, education and economic opportunity for women in Burma. All partnership funding will be provided to Burmese organizations staffed by the people of Burma. Funding will provide medical care for women and girls. It will also fund programs to improve health awareness and provide preventive treatment. Other focuses will include education and training as well as expanding economic opportunities for women. "Through decades of challenges, the people of Burma have developed a resilient and resourceful civil society," said Ambassador Verveer. "By supporting existing grassroots organizations, this public-private partnership with the Abbott Fund will help build the capacity of local organizations and communities to drive progress and development for women." The Secretary's International Fund for Women and Girls furthers the Obama administration’s initiatives to build partnerships with philanthropic organizations, global businesses and civil society to address global needs. The fund is a State Department-led privately-funded initiative committed to providing flexible, rapid, targeted, and high-impact grants to nongovernmental organizations working to meet the critical needs of women and girls around the world. “Burma’s democratic future is a work in progress,” said Ambassador Verveer. “Today we have an historic opportunity to help the people of Burma to realize a better future.” * [101]Print * [102]Email * [103]Comment (1) * [104]Share: x + [105]Del.icio.us + [106]Google Bookmarks + [107]Twitter + [108]Facebook [109]About sharing * [110]Tweet * * * [111]Pin It __________________________________________________________________ This forum has been closed. 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[57]previous‘Titanic’ Resurfaces in Myanmar [58]Southeast Asia Real Time [59]nextAnother Billion-Dollar IPO to Hit Malaysia * [60]Sports * [61]Environment & Health * [62]Economy & Business * [63]Politics * [64]Lifestyle & Culture * [65]People * August 20, 2012, 2:11 PM Myanmar’s Growing, but Has a Long Way to Go Search Southeast Asia Real Time1 Search Southeast Asia Real Tim SEARCH * [66]Article * [67]Comments (2) [68]Southeast Asia Real Time HOME PAGE » * [69]smaller * [70]Larger * [71]facebook * [72]twitter * [73]google plus * [74]linked in * [75]Email * [76]Print * [77]facebook * [78]twitter * [79]google plus * [80]linked in * [81]Email * [82]Print * [83]smaller * [84]Larger * [85]facebook * [86]twitter * [87]google plus * [88]linked in * [89]Email * [90]Print By Patrick Barta UPDATED AT 7 P.M. YANGON–Myanmar may be poised for years of explosive growth. If so, it has a long way to go before it comes close to catching up with its neighbors. European Pressphoto Agency Paddy-field workers take a lunch break in Kawmhu township near Yangon, Myanmar, on Aug. 3. That tough reality is one of the themes that emerges in the latest Myanmar report by the Asian Development Bank, released Monday, which provides one of the most comprehensive pictures of the Myanmar economy in years. The report, “Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges,” predicts that Myanmar’s economy will grow by about 6.0% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013 on the back of commodity exports and a pick-up in foreign investment – about as much as other fast-growing regional economies such as Indonesia. It also suggests that Myanmar could grow at 7%-8% per year for a decade or more, replicating the success of other Asian economies, if the government continues to push more reforms after giving residents more freedoms and floating the country’s currency over the past year. But the depths to which Myanmar’s economy sunk during its years of military rule from 1962 to 2011 mean it could take years if not decades for it to start catching up to many of its regional peers. Consider some of these factoids from the ADB report. * Only about 26% of Myanmar’s population had access to electricity in 2011, versus 100% in Malaysia and roughly 90% or more in the Philippines and Vietnam. * Only 1.26 people out of every 100 in Myanmar have fixed telephone lines, versus roughly 16 in Indonesia, while only 0.03 out of 100 have broadband Internet subscriptions, compared to about eight in Malaysia. * Roughly 30% of Myanmar doesn’t have access to safe water. The list goes on. Myanmar has 40 kilometers of roads for every 1,000 square kilometers; Vietnam has 480. Myanmar has 18 vehicles per 1,000 people, while Thailand has 370. Myanmar’s economy in some ways has changed little since the 1960s or otherwise fallen behind as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam zoomed ahead. Agriculture accounted for 35% of Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 1965; in 2010, it was 36%. Its per capita income in 1960 was about $670, more than three times that of Indonesia and more than twice that of Thailand. By 2010 it had the lowest GDP per capita in Southeast Asia, at about $1,300 on a purchasing power parity basis. There are some areas where Myanmar has made notable progress, the ADB said. Its infant and maternal mortality rates have dropped considerably since 1990, though they remain high, and adult literacy is now well above 90%. Rice yields have increased steadily despite a lack of irrigation and other infrastructure. Overall growth in recent years has helped boost Myanmar’s foreign currency reserves to help buttress the country against economic shocks, and policy makers have helped bring inflation to manageable levels. But the ADB noted that many experts believe Myanmar’s official economic data may have exaggerated the growth that occurred in recent years. Myanmar reported an average of 12% annual growth from 2000 to 2010, but such figures “have been deemed overstated and rather unreliable” given the country’s poor statistical capacity, the ADB said. It cited International Monetary Fund figures that estimate growth averaged just 4.6% from 2002 to 2010. Other data that tend to correlate with GDP growth was also far weaker than official GDP figures would suggest. Cement sales, for instance, only grew 1.8% per year from 2004 to 2009. Ko Ko Hlaing, an adviser to Myanmar President Thein Sein, said in an emailed response to questions that it “may be true” that GDP figures from 2002 to 2010 were not reliable because the country’s currency had many values at the time, complicating calculations, and some regional authorities may have exaggerated growth to please superiors. He said it’s possible the actual rate of growth was somewhere between the IMF estimates and Myanmar’s calculations, “but one can never find the exact point.” Part of Myanmar’s problem, no doubt, is that it has been subject to tough Western sanctions that prevented Western firms from buying Myanmar products or investing there, though economists believe policy mistakes and over-reliance on inefficient state enterprises also played a major role in the weak economy. Many experts believe one of the reasons Myanmar’s government is finally changing after years of military rule is that its leaders are disappointed in the country’s poor performance compared with other Asian countries, and want to do something about it. Either way, Myanmar remains heavily dependent on just a few industries, with more than two-thirds of its exports coming from three products – natural gas, logs and legumes, the ADB said. The country also faces major risks going forward, despite all the recent excitement over reforms there. As Western [91]governments lift sanctions and more investors charge in, the country could run into an assortment of challenges that commonly bedevil frontier economies, including inflation, exchange-rate instability, hot money flows, and credit bubbles. Those risks are particularly acute in Myanmar due to its relatively under-developed regulatory environment and immature financial sector, with poor tax collection, an under-developed bond market, and widening fiscal deficits. The good news, ADB said, is that Myanmar is taking some important steps to address some of its problems. After years of miserly spending on health and education – it has been the only developing Asian country that spends more on defense than education and health combined – it is boosting health care and schools spending significantly, to 7.5% of government expenditure in fiscal year 2012-13, from 5.4% a year earlier. The budget for education is more than doubling in nominal terms in fiscal year 2012-13. Having the ADB back in Myanmar may also help. The ADB, along with the World Bank, recently opened an office in Myanmar after suspending lending to the country years ago after Myanmar became an international pariah because of allegations of human-rights violations. The changing environment in Myanmar means multilateral institutions can work there again, though ADB officials stress Myanmar still needs to make good on $504 million of arrears to the bank before more money can flow. An important question is whether Myanmar’s government will institute the kinds of financial-sector and other reforms needed to ensure it can continue to afford its spending, including boosting its tax haul and ensuring the country’s central bank has enough independence to properly manage the economy. Growth may indeed take off in Asia’s newest frontier market, but it’ll take a while to see whether its leaders have the skill to manage it. And here’s one other final, sobering statistic: If Myanmar’s economy does manage to grow 7%-8% per year for a long stretch, it might still only hit GDP per capita of $2,000–$3,000 by 2030. To many economists, this is good news, since it would put Myanmar safely into the ranks of middle-income countries, ADB said. But it’s still a far cry from its peers. Malaysia’s GDP per capita in 2010 on a purchasing power parity basis was nearly $15,000. * [92]Asian Development Bank, * [93]Myanmar * [94]« previous ‘Titanic’ Resurfaces in Myanmar * [95]next » Another Billion-Dollar IPO to Hit Malaysia [96]Southeast Asia Real Time HOME PAGE Add a Comment Error message Name ____________________ We welcome thoughtful comments from readers. Please comply with our [97]guidelines. Our blogs do not require the use of your real name. Comment ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________ CLEAR POST Comments (2 of 2) [98]View all Comments » * + o 9:47 am August 22, 2012 o Kyaw Nyunt wrote: thankzzzz for the article. I think it is a great one. Especially the comparison that you made Myanmar with other country. As a Myanmar myself, we usually have had less chance to read that kind of information about our country. In a sense , though, it is a good thing for us to know that our government still has lots of things to do in the future. And for business men all over the world, it means our country still have lots of business opportunities. We will need lots of cars, phones, computers etc in the future. * + o 9:10 am August 21, 2012 o pork wrote: I believe that myanmar already reached the lowest point or the darkest period during under millitary rule. It can’t get any worse that that. Only if the government want to open more reconciliation process, myanmar will be better in term of moving forward. But Whether the government have genuine inclusive for all myanmar (ethnics and armed forces)or not, that remain to be seen. The economic will only be better if the government implement the policy of appointing the educated people instead of millitary personnel in all government sectors. That will create more changes in a positive manner from current mismanaged policy. [99]RSS Feed About Southeast Asia Real Time * * [100]RSS * Southeast Asia Real Time provides analysis and insight into the region, which includes Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei. 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[32]Subscribe and save 57 [33]% [34]Subscribe * [35]Christian Science Monitor * Advertisements * [36][about-these-ads.gif] __________________________________________________________________ Could Myanmar's economic reform bring business to war-torn ethnic regions? Myanmar has passed a new foreign direct investment law. Now a cease-fire in the country's war-torn Karen state has some entrepreneurs hoping to attract foreign investment. By Simon Roughneen, Correspondent / September 10, 2012 * Myanmar factory workers stage a rally outside Myanmar Labor's Office in Yangon, Myanmar, Friday, Sept. 7. Elected President Thein Sein launched economic and political reforms when he took office last year after almost five decades of military rule, foreign sanctions and restrictive laws that kept the economy stagnant. Khin Maung Win/AP Enlarge __________________________________________________________________ Hpa'an, Myanmar On the heels of recent reforms in [37]Myanmar, aspiring entrepreneur Shar Phaung established Shar Mu Lar Mining Co. just two months ago, sensing economic opportunity in a war-torn state close to the [38]Thailand-Myanmar border. [39]Skip to next paragraph Related stories * [40]Myanmar cease-fire: Who are the Karen rebels? * In Pictures: [41]Myanmar Edges Into the Open * [42]Myanmar removes names from blacklist. What does it mean for reform? Subscribe Today to the Monitor [43]Click Here for your [44]FREE 30 DAYS of The Christian Science Monitor Weekly Digital Edition The [45]Karen National Union (KNU) has fought the Myanmar government in the Karen state, where Mr. Shar Phaung lives, since the late 1940s. The on-again, off-again jungle conflict has driven hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, left thousands killed or maimed, and made it a struggle for families to make ends meet. Now a cease-fire has been coupled with Myanmar [46]President Thein Sein's pledge to prioritize economic reform one of [47]Asia's poorest countries. The government and the KNU met last week in the latest round of peace talks, discussing troop positions. “Overall we can say things are improving as this is the third time the government and KNU meet, and publicly the government praises the KNU,” says Susanna Hla Hla Soe of the Karen Women's Action Group, an observer at last weeks' negotiations here in Hpa'an. RELATED [48]Myanmar cease-fire: who are the Karen rebels? The lull in fighting means that even in this ramshackle riverside town of around 50,000, a six-hour drive from [49]Yangon, entrepreneurs such as Mr. Shar Phaung now see business opportunities. “The KNU and the government have the cease-fire so we can go to the places like Kyaiseikgyi near the Thailand-Myanmar border, where there is the antimony,” he says, referring to a potentially lucrative element mostly used in batteries and flame retardants. Antimony is just one of an array of natural resources prompting a surge in investor interest in Myanmar, which is better known for its gas, gemstones, timber, and oil. Given that antimony is also used sometimes in bullets, it is a grim irony that Shar Phaung could soon be mining in a region home to what is commonly described as the world's longest-running civil war. Still, both Ms. Susanna Hla Hla Soe and Shar Phaung acknowledge that a political settlement is a long way off. “It is just cease-fire for now: They have many things to discuss still,” says Shar Phaung. The Karen and several of Myanmar's other large ethnic minorities have long sought substantial devolution of central control to their regions, something the Myanmar authorities have resisted, fearing that minority regions could try to break away from Myanmar. Hurdles await Big issues await discussion, and even settling on the names of places and people could be problematic. Just as Burma is the old name for Myanmar – the official country name imposed by the ruling military in 1989 – “Kayin” and “Hpa'an” are official names for what are better-known as Karen state and Pa'an respectively. Moreover, analysts say it will take more than peace to ensure significant economic change in Karen state. “We need outside investment, outside technology,” says Shar Phaung, who has yet to sign a contract with the government to mine the antimony. “We are hoping to get a bigger foreign partner to work more effectively,” he says. “We can only mine by hand right now, we don't have machines to do this properly yet.” A new foreign investment law was passed by Myanmar's parliament on Friday after several months debate, during which Western countries relaxed or suspended economic sanctions on Myanmar. The law scratched several potential investment-deterring provisions from the original draft, such as a $5 million minimum initial spend for any foreign company wanting to invest. It could also help bring in the know-how and equipment Shar Phaung is after. That might take time, however. “Foreign investors are looking to see the extent to which peace can be brokered, achieved, and maintained in conflict areas prior to commitment of resources,” says Alessio Polastri, managing partner at P&A Asia, a consultancy that offers legal advice to companies seeking business in Myanmar. Another sticking point is the current mining law, which requires 30 to 70 percent profit sharing between an investor and the Myanmar government, which also seeks royalties and tax. The law is another likely deterrent to the sort of partner Shar Phaung wants, says Mr. Polastri, but one the government says it will revise soon. ‘We are still very poor’ However, for others in Hpa'an, the lingering effects of war mean a daily struggle to make ends meet. Jerome Na makes shirts and dresses from the living room of her family home in a quiet, semi-rural street on the outskirts of town. Eight years ago she brought her family 40 miles from Kama Maung because of the constant dangers of jungle skirmishes there between the Army and the Karen [50]National Liberation Army, the KNU's armed wing. “There are landmines around, and back then it was not safe, and there was no way to earn a living,” she says. Ms. Jerome Na says that the family did not have running water or electricity in their home village, typical of most of rural Karen state. “Business is still the same for me as it was last year and the year before,” she says, despite the cease-fire. “I think it is the same still for most people, we are still very poor.” Related stories * [51]Myanmar cease-fire: Who are the Karen rebels? * In Pictures: [52]Myanmar Edges Into the Open * [53]Myanmar removes names from blacklist. What does it mean for reform? Get free daily or weekly news updates from CSMonitor.com delivered to your inbox. [54]Sign up today. 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file://localhost/World/Making-a-difference/2013/0125/Rachel-Goble-helps-stop-sex-trafficking-of-impoverished-children #[1]East Asia Forum » Feed [2]East Asia Forum » Comments Feed [3]East Asia Forum » Myanmarâs economy confronts tough policy challenges Comments Feed [4]Blurred borders: ‘offshoring’ Australian business [5]The Philippines and education cooperation in Asia and the Pacific [6][banner-bg.png] Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific * [7]Home * [8]Topics + [9]Development + [10]Economics + [11]G20 + [12]International Relations + [13]Politics + [14]Trade + [15]Other Topics o [16]2008 in review o [17]2009 in review o [18]2010 in review o [19]2011 in review o [20]Asian Century o [21]ASEAN o [22]Asia and the Global Financial Crisis o [23]Regional Architecture o [24]Security o [25]China-Japan Relations o [26]Chinese outward FDI o [27]Chinese political transition o [28]Chinese RMB o [29]Climate change o [30]Foreign aid o [31]Japanese politics o [32]Trans-Pacific Partnership o [33]United States and Asia o [34]US-Japan alliance o [35]Editorials o [36]WTO * [37]Countries + [38]Australia + [39]China + [40]India + [41]Japan + [42]DPRK + [43]ROK + [44]USA + [45]Indonesia + [46]Other Countries o [47]Bangladesh o [48]Malaysia o [49]New Zealand o [50]Pakistan o [51]Papua New Guinea o [52]Russia o [53]Singapore o [54]Solomon Islands o [55]Taiwan o [56]Thailand o [57]Mongolia o [58]Myanmar o [59]Vietnam * [60]Contributors * [61]Quarterly * [62]About * search______________ (Submit) Myanmarâs economy confronts tough policy challenges July 31st, 2012 Author: Lex Rieffel, Brookings Institution The global policy community has focused on the political challenges facing the government of President Thein Sein in Myanmar and paid little attention to the economic challenges.  Yet without economic improvements at the grass roots, political progress may founder. Urgent policy challenges confront almost every aspect of the Myanmar economy. Here are the top 10 issues. The single biggest source of Myanmar government revenue is hard currency earnings from exporting natural gas. A widely held view is that a large portion of these earnings is siphoned off into the pockets of powerful people. The credibility of the Thein Sein administration will depend greatly on how quickly it moves to show that the earnings from natural resource exports are being used for social development purposes. In an encouraging sign, President Thein Sein recently went on record to support Myanmarâs participation in the [63]Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. The single most important economic policy measure adopted by the Thein Sein administration so far was abandoning the grossly overvalued official exchange rate and [64]moving to a managed float on 1 April 2012. The April move is just one of many steps required to achieve the ultimate goal of complying with Article VIII of the IMF Articles of Agreement (removal of all restrictions on the purchase and sale of foreign exchange for the export and import of goods and services). Myanmar will need to proceed expeditiously because it is scheduled to host the Southeast Asian Games in 2013 and the East Asia Summit in 2014. Seventy per cent of Myanmarâs population lives in rural areas where livelihoods depend primarily on agriculture. Boosting productivity to ASEAN-average levels will require improving land ownership, crop credit, floor prices, extension services, infrastructure and related areas. From its first day, the Thein Sein administration stressed the importance of the agricultural sector, but 15 months later there is still little to show for these efforts. Land ownership and control is a crucial issue also in connection with urbanisation, infrastructure and other projects. Two land laws were considered in the legislative session that ended in early May, but both drafts have been criticised for potentially contributing to land alienation. The current session of the legislature is expected to revise these laws, but the odds seem stacked against a result that provides assured tenure to smallholders and fair compensation when land is acquired for public purposes. Myanmar suffers from a âresource curseâ as severe as any other country. It has been most visible in connection with natural gas and timber exports. Mining projects are causing considerable damage to the environment and to peopleâs livelihoods. Jadeite mining in particular seems to be out of control. Foreign investor interest in Myanmarâs mining sector is intense, which suggests that the problem is likely to get worse. The Than Shwe government systematically exploited Myanmarâs natural resources for sale to neighbouring countries, but the Thein Sein administration has taken small steps to shift the output mix in favour of domestic consumption. With foreign exchange reserves above a comfortable level, the benefits of exporting power seem low relative to the benefits of providing a reliable supply to domestic households and industry. A sound banking system is essential for building a competitive economy and raising standards of living. Public trust in the system is low because of three demonetisations within memory and a serious banking crisis in 2003. Fortunately, most financial sanctions imposed by Western countries have been suspended or removed recently. Myanmarâs private and state-owned banks are working overtime to modernise, but they are constrained by existing regulations issued by the Central Bank of Myanmar, which is not up to ASEAN standards. Myanmar remains unconnected to its five neighbouring countries by a single railroad or highway. Construction is now underway on [65]highway connections to India, China and Thailand, and could begin soon on railroad links to China and Thailand. One of the best opportunities for Myanmar to leapfrog the development of its economy is in the communications sector, where telephone and internet penetration are among the lowest in the world. In an apparent breakthrough in mid-July, the government announced that it will invite foreign companies to form joint ventures with the [66]state-owned telephone and internet companies. In its early months the Thein Sein administration made clear its commitment to enacting a new Foreign Investment Law. A draft was submitted to the legislature toward the end of 2011, but the first session of the legislature in 2012 ended without a consensus text. Though passing the new law appears to be a top priority for the second session that began in July, considerable uncertainty surrounds substantive and procedural aspects of this law. The uncertainty is symptomatic of two challenges faced by the current administration: transparency and decision making. In another breakthrough, on 9 July the government media began publishing [67]the texts of all draft laws being discussed in the legislature. Conceivably, the biggest problem facing the Thein Sein administration today is the tidal wave of visitors. The worst impact is on senior policy officials, who are spending considerable parts of every work day meeting with visitors, leaving insufficient time to make good policy decisions and even less time for effective policy implementation. A donor conference was held last May in Mandalay. One of the results cited in press reports was an âhistoric commitmentâ to respect the guidelines that emerged from the 2011 High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. Translating this commitment into reality will not be easy. Lex Rieffel is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the [68]Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. This is an abridged version of a paper co-authored with Khin Maung Nyo and presented at the âMyanmar in Reform 2012â symposium, organised by the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong and the Center for Myanmar Studies of Yunnan University, held on 18â20 June 2012. [69]Tweet View more posts by [70]Lex Rieffel [71]Print this post Print [72]Download PDF Download PDF Related Articles: 1. [73]Myanmar sanctions by US defy logic 2. [74]Myanmar: Asiaâs next âtigerâ? 3. [75]Stability, reform and democracy in Myanmar 4. [76]Toward real national reconciliation in Myanmar? What other people are reading: 1. [77]East Asiaâs moment of truth 2. [78]Fiji’s search for new friends 3. [79]Universal human rights, cultural relativism and the Asian values debate No Comments [80]Post a comment Post a comment [81]Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. 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(Photo: AAP) January 20: Can PNG convert growth into development? * * [89]US President Barack Obama stands with ASEAN leaders and leaders of Southeast Asia during a photo session at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh on 20 November 2012. (Photo: AAP) January 13: Challenging ASEAN: the American pivot in Southeast Asia * * [90]Chief negotiators from nine countries taking part in Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade talks in Melbourne, Australia talk at a joint press conference on 9 March 2012. (Photo: AAP) January 6: Will the TPP facilitate or disrupt supply chains? * * [91]Pakistani supporters of Tehreek-e-Minhajul Quran wave national flags in the public meeting in Lahore on 23 December 2012. Pakistan faces some daunting political and economic challenges as it enters 2013. (Photo: AAP) December 30: Pakistanâs bleak outlook lightened by the game-changer with India * Editorials + [92]Australian foreign minister Bob Carr and PNG foreign minister Rimbink Pato walk through a market in Mt Hagen in Papua New Guinea on 4 December 2012. (Photo: AAP) Can Papua New Guinea capitalise on its Asia boom? + + [93]Leaders pose for a group photo before the 7th East Asia Summit plenary session on the sidelines of the 21st ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh on 20 November 2012. (Photo: AAP) Coming to terms with Asia + + [94]A cargo ships unloads containers at Jakarta seaport. How trade policy strategy evolves in Asia matters not just to the regional economy but also for the international trade regime. (Photo: AAP) Asia and the international trade regime + + [95]Pakistani female health workers protest against the killing of polio vaccination workers in front of the office of the prime minister in Islamabad on 22 December 2012. 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[17]Print News | [ico-fonts.png] [18]A [19]A Arab News Thursday 14 June 2012 Last Update 15 June 2012 5:41 pm There is, unfortunately, nothing new about the persecution of Burma’s Muslim minority by the country’s Buddhist majority. It began 500 years ago. However, until the turn of the century, the country’s Muslims, mostly Rohingya people, who came originally from India, have enjoyed a precarious peace, even though in the 1960s, they were marginalized and forbidden for instance to serve in the armed forces. Many were later denied Burmese citizenship papers. Since 2001 however when there were nationalist riots, the campaign of persecution against this luckless people, became deadly and vicious. The current sectarian violence which has broken out in the Muslim heartland in the northwest of Burma, is therefore nothing new, but a continuation of an officially-condoned policy of repression and cruelty. The world is busy encouraging the military in Burma, or Myanmar as the generals like to call their country, to return to their barracks and permit a full transition to democracy. The iconic Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the democratic opposition, is currently in Europe talking with political leaders about how the military can be convinced to give up power, once and for all. To bolster the moves that the regime is making towards real liberalization, international sanctions are being lifted in stages. There are also talks with half a dozen tribal-based rebel movements such as the Karen, who have been conducting insurrections for years in their mountainous jungle fastnesses. At first glance, it would seem to the outside world that Burma is on track to achieve a free and just society. Yet the appalling attacks on the country’s Muslims and their continued condition as less than second class citizens within their own country, should give the international community pause for thought. It is a tragic truth that Buddhist monks, who led the brave protests against the generals in recent years, are also responsible for much of the violence against Burmese Muslims. Suu Kyi has condemned racial violence in her country. However, there are those who think that this woman, who internationally enjoys a revered status akin to that of Nelson Mandela, has not gone far enough. Calling for the rule of law, she said that the alleged rape and murder of a young Buddhist woman by three Muslim men, which started off this latest savagery, should be investigated properly. Though she condemned the violence, some might think that her criticism did not go far enough. Whatever the reason for this inter-communal violence, it is unforgivable and it is also clear that the perpetrators are almost exclusively local Buddhists. It is a brave politician that will take his or her own political constituency to task. Nevertheless, what Suu Kyi needs to say is that the new Burma that she and her supporters want to build, cannot be laid upon such rotten and festering foundations as the religious hatred and contempt that so many Burmese clearly show toward their Muslim fellow citizens. Therefore, the international community needs to pause in its drive to normalize relations with Burma. There should be a refocus away from the economic and political reforms that the military-appointed government is making. Instead the world should be looking at how the country is treating the Rohingya people and no less importantly, at the performance of the forces of law and order, in tracking down and prosecuting those responsible for the callous violence against this highly vulnerable community. It cannot be that the rest of the world is so blinded by the economic opportunities available to international companies in Burma, that they can ignore the crimes that have been taking place in the country’s northwest, crimes which have driven hundreds of thousands of refugees to flee to Bangladesh and Thailand. This is a problem that should be addressed immediately. If Suu Kyi is given the clear message that the brutality that we are seeing against Muslims will be no more tolerated than the military’s baleful dominance politics, then she will have something of a political mandate to return home and demand the violence stop. Eradicating the centuries of prejudice and hatred that the Buddhists have felt toward their Muslim brothers will, of course take far longer. But a clear commitment from Suu Kyi and her people to the ending of all discrimination against Burmese Muslims and their assumption of their full and proper place in the country, is essential. | [20]PDF [21]Send to Friend [22]Print News | [ico-fonts.png] [23]A [24]A Comments [25]View the discussion thread. Search Search this site: _______________ Search Related Stories More like this * [26]Burma’s massacres and the world’s conscience * [27]Makkah’s ‘Little Burma’ * [28]Targeting Rohingya Muslims in Burma * [29]Editorial: Protecting Basic Resources * [30]Editorial: Protection of Workers Latest Stories 1. [31]King Abdullah and Crown Prince Salman... 2. [32]French-led troops in Mali seize airport... 3. [33]Gerrans wins on Australia Day, Slagter... 4. [34]Azarenka secures back-to-back Australian... 5. [35]Syria rebels free 100 inmates in prison... 6. [36]Iranian ship back home after Sri Lankan... 7. [37]27 dead in Egyptian clashes over death... 8. 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Korea Pledge to Deepen Economic Ties * [78]Print * [79]Email __________________________________________________________________ Burma's President Thein Sein, second from left, inspects an honor guard with his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-bak, left, during a welcome ceremony at the presidential Blue House in Seoul, South Korea, October 9, 2012. x Burma's President Thein Sein, second from left, inspects an honor guard with his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-bak, left, during a welcome ceremony at the presidential Blue House in Seoul, South Korea, October 9, 2012. * [80]Tweet * * * [81]Pin It Related Articles * [82]Burma Works to Change Image * [83]Thein Sein: Burma ‘Now Part of Family of Nations’ TEXT SIZE [84]- [85]+ VOA News October 09, 2012 Burma's president is drumming up support for more investment in his country as it emerges from decades of military rule. Burmese President Thein Sein was met by an honor guard and flag-waving children at the Blue House in Seoul Tuesday before meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak. The two leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation and to pursue gas development and power plant construction. Earlier, President Thein Sein met with officials from small and medium-sized businesses, encouraging them to take another look at Burma. "At present due to political and economic developments in our country there are opportunities as well as challenges in foreign investments. In this regard, SMEs [Small and Medium Enterprises] in Myanmar should be prepared to face challenges as well as effectively utilizing investment opportunities. Thus we look forward to receiving necessary assistance and co-operation from Kbiz [Korea Federation of Small and Medium Business],'' he said. The United States and other countries have been lifting trade sanctions against Burma in response to reforms by the country's military-backed government, making the resource-rich southeast Asian nation a prime candidate for investment and development. Just last week, a South Korean firm signed a deal to build a 500 megawatt power plant in Rangoon. But while Burma is eager to attract foreign investment, potential investors have raised questions about the pace of reform and access to the country's natural resources. In New York last week for the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, Burmese President Thein Sein told VOA there is reason for caution. "There is danger of business people ending with some control in administrative matters," he said. "That’s why it’s important not to have a negative impact on our sovereignty. It’s also important not to destroy our environment. We don’t want our natural resources to be extracted leaving nothing behind." President Thein Sein's three-day visit comes about five months after Lee became the first South Korean president to visit Burma in almost 30 years. Before Lee, the last South Korean president to visit Burma was Chun Doo-hwan, who narrowly escaped a 1983 assassination attempt in Rangoon by North Korean commandos. Some information for this report was provided by AFP and Reuters. * [86]Print * [87]Email * [88]Tweet * * * [89]Pin It __________________________________________________________________ You May Like [90]Armed soldiers from Burma [91]With Burma in Mind, China Quietly Supports Wa Rebels Security analysts say Beijing has supplied advanced weapons to rebel United Wa State Army, fighting Burmese troops along their shared border [92]More [93]A salesgirl shows a gold necklace to customers at a jewelery showroom in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh, November 11, 2012. 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[16]Financial Markets [17]Google Microsoft Profile image By The Sovereign Investor [18]Contributor profile | [19]More stories Story Views Now: Last Hour: Last 24 Hours: Total: The Way to Gain Safe Exposure to Emerging Market Economies Monday, August 6, 2012 14:33 % of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents. [20]Share [21]Tweet 0 [22](Before It's News) When a country is sitting on over $1 trillion in natural resources and suddenly opens itself for business to the outside world for the first time in fifty years, the potential for explosive short-term gains can’t be ignored. That’s exactly why I flew to Burma in early June to attend the 2012 Myanmar Investment Summit. I joined executives from 300 companies – from more than a score of countries – in the main ballroom of the Park Royal Hotel in downtown Rangoon, listening to the future of Burma. On June 19, I wrote to my Emerging Market Strategist subscribers: “Two recent events have put Myanmar back on the world stage and in a positive light. The country’s aging military leaders stepped aside and Myanmar held its first free elections in decades, in April, with the democratic movement winning almost every Parliamentary seat available in the election. In the wake of those elections, the U.S. government began easing decades-long sanctions against the country. “Those events set the stage for Myanmar. Though the country still has its problems, it once again has the potential to one day lead Southeast Asia’s economies. “That day is still years away. But we have the rare opportunity to get into a country at the earliest stages of its emergence – an opportunity I relentlessly pursue because of the huge profits that can accrue over time.” Just a few weeks later, at the Asean summit in Cambodia in early July, the U.S. government announced exactly what I predicted. It lifted the decades-old ban on companies investing in Burma. A few days later, General Electric secured a deal to sell X-ray machines to two private hospitals in Rangoon. The floodgates were open. My subscribers saw their position jump 34% in less than a month. This is just the beginning. Getting Ahead of the Cash There’s no doubt Burma remains a bit of a mess. For five decades, Burma’s economy was wildly mismanaged by a gang of psychotic military generals. The population is poor and oppressed… But the country is well-placed between India and China, and the land is overrun with natural resources. And it’s clear today that the place is moving in the right direction – even the U.S. embassy personnel I met with in Rangoon were honestly excited about the surprising speed at which the country is reforming and the dramatic changes they’ve seen in the last six months alone. This is exactly the point at which I want to be an investor in a country like Burma. I like to arrive early to these parties, when the hosts are still trying to pretty up the place. By the time the real guests arrive – the ones with all the cash – I will already have my seat at the table and I will profit as they rush in for the festivities. With the expectation that the U.S. would lift sanctions – along with a general continuation of the country’s reopening to the west – I knew cash would begin looking for ways to profit off of the Burma story. While we made an incredible gain in such a short period, it’s just the beginning for Burma. The businesses represented in that ballroom with me – names like Dole, Dow Chemicals and Norway’s massive StatOil – had come because they recognized the opportunity emerging as Burma begins to reform its government and its economy. They see the same opportunity I do – namely that Burma could potentially become one of the strongest economies in Southeast Asia. Countries Where Real Growth Still Exists Coke, too, has announced plans to return to the once-reclusive nation … while Google, FedEx, Halliburton, Visa and 34 other U.S. companies met with senior White House business officials in Rangoon in late July to scope out the business climate and potential deals. A U.S. Embassy official told me that so many American and European companies in energy, telecom, infrastructure, the consumer sector and other industries are flooding through the country these days that embassy visitors in the past six months alone “probably topped our total number of visitors in the past 10 years.” American firms, of course, aren’t the only ones interested in exploiting opportunities in Burma. Japan, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, China, Australia, Russia … they’re all traipsing around the capital these days, looking to cut deals in everything from energy and infrastructure to consumer items and transportation. A poll out of Hong Kong just this week showed that Asian asset managers now rank Burma as the greatest investment opportunity for the next five years. Fortunes are clearly up for grabs as Burma opens up to the world. The Risk-Free Way to Invest in Emerging Markets I understand that not everyone is ready to capitalize on the opportunities in Burma. But every investor needs some exposure to the emerging and frontier markets. They are the future of the world economy. The U.S. has had its century in the sun, just as Britain, Spain, Portugal and the others did centuries ago. America’s growth phase is over. We’re now in the autumn of our days as an economy, moving into the winter cycle. But spring is dawning over the emerging markets… and that’s where tomorrow’s opportunities exist in abundance. If you don’t want the risk of stocks, a safe, convenient way to play that growth trend is through Everbank’s MarketSafe Emerging Market CD. It gives you exposure to emerging-market currencies including the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South Korean won and the Colombian peso. As emerging-market economies grow over the next five years, their currencies will strengthen and gain in value against a U.S. dollar backed by mountains of debt and political incompetence. But… just in case the world doesn’t work out that way, Everbank has structured this as a MarketSafe product, meaning that, at the very least, you will get back every penny of your original principal. If you want to know more about the Emerging Market CD, [23]click here. Until next time, stay Sovereign… P.S. As I said, America’s growth phase is over. While your Wall St. broker tries to funnel you into sagging U.S. blue-chip stocks, the real growth is found beyond America’s shores. These are exactly the kinds of opportunities I’m always researching for my Emerging Market Strategist subscribers – companies that still have the potential for big gains in growing markets. To learn how you can become a subscriber – and about all of the opportunities your broker isn’t telling you about – [24]click here for my latest special report. [25][sovereign-investor?d=yIl2AUoC8zA] [26][sovereign-investor?i=XCHKZBWD-mk:KDfMA1-4ri4:V_sGLiPBpWU] [XCHKZBWD-mk] 2012-08-06 14:26:01 Source: [27]http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/08/06/invest-in-emerging-markets -burma/ Related Stories * [28]A Take on the S&P Series * [29]How Likely Is It that founder Richard Schulze’s Deal for Best Buy Will Go Through? * [30]Bond Model Positive = Risk Off * [31]Bought DUST @ $46.25 * [32]The Arbitrageur: Gold Sea Change * [33]Imd Companies (ICBU) – Pump and Dump Watch * [34]Iveda Solutions (IVDA) – Deal Flow * [35]Jinzanghuang Tibet (JZHG) – Deal Flow * [36]Kandi Technologies (KNDI) – Share Structure * [37]Miscor Group (MIGL) – Comments & Business Outlook Report abuse Comments [cross.png] [38]Click here to cancel reply. 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The problem has led to the government’s creation of a commission to deal with mounting complaints. A $50 billion special economic zone in southeastern Burma is the latest area of concern. Seized land In Burma, all land is nominally owned by the state, leaving small-scale farmers without legal land titles. Over the years, businesses with connections to the country’s military government were able to seize land from farmers and villagers, mostly to build lucrative mining or agricultural projects. Many of those who lost their lands received little compensation. Now, as the government considers new laws to attract foreign investors, activists say there has been a rash of land seizures with up to 3.6 million hectares being taken by government, private companies and the military as the economy prepares for more foreign investment. “One of the things that we’re seeing coming up all over Burma is land problems - seizures of land - unauthorized taking of land - by well connected wealthy people. Burma is starting to see similarly in areas that previously were not considered to be very important," explained Phil Robertson, Deputy Asia director for U.S.-based Human Rights Watch. "All of a sudden they are starting to look vulnerable and people with connections are displacing farmers and others.” Burma’s Army, which has a long history of land seizures, is also accused of continuing to grab land in ethnic areas. Khin Ohmar is spokesperson for the rights group Burma Partnership, who says the moves are fueling suspicion about the army’s plans. “We’ve been getting reports of the army taking the large [amounts of] land in ethnic areas - building the army camps," he said. "So the question comes, why are they building the new army camps in the democratic climate; democratic transition?” Villagers speak out While activists say the problem is worsening, there are signs that the government is responding to the issue through the creation of the land commission under the Office of the President. Kevin Woods, a researcher with Amsterdam-based Transnational Institute, says the commission illustrates the new “political space” that allows protestors to file complaints -- in stark contrast with the past. “It was never possible before for villagers to speak out about this or else they would disappear. And suddenly now it’s possible - not of course without intimidation from authority figures, but people are not disappearing from raising these issues and it’s having a kind of domino effect in terms of other villagers,” stated Woods. Displacement risk, land confiscation Of particular concern is the $50 billion, 250 square kilometer Dawei Special Economic Zone in southeastern Burma. The project, strategically located to link to Thai transport routes, has been a key initiative for Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Transnational Institute in its latest [85]report says the Thai-backed project is putting more than 30,000 people, 20 primary schools and numerous temples, at risk of being displaced. The Dawei Development Corp says it has new accommodations for those displaced along with lump sum payments. But residents fear a loss of their livelihoods. The Institute’s Woods says new land laws and foreign investment laws will leave small scale farmers vulnerable in government moves to set up a “land market” in Burma. “You have created a situation that could potentially eliminate the livelihoods of 70 per cent of the country’s population which are small holder farmers. When we talk about progressive laws, the country has literally put their land up for sale when the vast majority of people are directly reliant about that for their livelihood.” But Asian Development Bank (ADB) economist Alfredo Perdiquero says while land confiscation is a concern there appears to be some progress in dealing with the issue. “The situation will improve for several reasons. You can see already people are starting to become more aware of their rights. The media is more open. So when there is some land confiscation - which is very unfair - this comes up in the media. Even in the north you hear stories of Chinese investment which is already providing much more significant compensation for land per acre than used to be,” Perdiquero noted. Analysts say the issue remains a key test of the Burmese government’s ability to entice foreign investment and create a government body to address the complaints of the country’s citizens. * [86]Print * [87]Email * [88]Comment (1) * [89]Tweet * * * [90]Pin It __________________________________________________________________ You May Like [91]Armed soldiers from Burma [92]With Burma in Mind, China Quietly Supports Wa Rebels Security analysts say Beijing has supplied advanced weapons to rebel United Wa State Army, fighting Burmese troops along their shared border [93]More [94]A salesgirl shows a gold necklace to customers at a jewelery showroom in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh, November 11, 2012. [95]India Raises Gold Tax to Moderate Demand But jewelers note domestic demand has little impact on overall booming business [96]More [97]A dilapidated gate at the historic Bukit Brown Cemetery, home to 100,000 traditional Chinese graves. (VOA/K. 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[27]Company Lookup ____________________ (Submit) Go Myanmar, shunned since the 1990s for tolerating corruption and human trafficking, is set for record foreign investment in 2012 led by oil companies after the southeast Asian nation took its first steps toward democracy. The country plans its biggest auction of exploration blocks for oil and gas by year-end. Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) of India probably will bid, an ONGC executive said in an interview. This month Franceâs Total SA (FP), one of the few foreign companies that operated under the old dictatorship, said it bought 40 percent of an offshore permit, while Coca-Cola Co. made its first shipment in more than 60 years to Yangon, the biggest city. âMyanmar is very under-explored,â said Managing Director D.K. Sarraf of ONGC Videsh Ltd., the Indian oil companyâs overseas unit. âWe think there are large reserves of both oil and gas that are yet to be found,â Sarraf said by phone from New Delhi. âWe expect intense competition for assets there.â The U.S. dropped economic sanctions in July after elections and other democratic moves, and the International Monetary Fund forecast direct foreign investment into the country formerly known as Burma will rise 40 percent to a record $3.99 billion this year. Natural gas is Myanmarâs biggest revenue earner, and without new discoveries it will struggle to reverse an average 15 percent annual depletion in reserves of the commodity. Cameron Visit President Barack Obama in July authorized U.S. businesses to invest in Myanmar after President Thein Sein started a democratic process that saw opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi elected to parliament following years of house arrest and prompted visits by U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and Indiaâs Manmohan Singh. The deals carry extra risk for investors in a nation sandwiched between China and India thatâs seeking to emerge from 50 years of economic and political isolation. Ranked No. 180 of 183 nations in Transparency Internationalâs 2011 corruption index, Thein Seinâs government will be challenged to find a balance between attracting capital and limiting a flood of money from mostly benefiting an elite. âCompanies will be careful before investing because many policies are still very uncertain, and once in place thereâs no certainty they wonât change,â Andrew Gilholm, Singapore-based head of Asia analysis at Control Risks, a global business risk consultancy which also advises companies investing in Myanmar, said in an interview in New Delhi Sept. 13. âA stable and secure investment environment is a long-term project.â Disclose Payments Myanmar plans to implement the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which calls for governments to disclose all payments from oil, gas and mining companies, Industry Minister Soe Thane said June 8. âPressing the button on transparency will help attract major western companies to invest in Myanmar to a certain degree. It shows the willingness of Myanmarâs authorities to fight widespread corruption and provide much-needed regulatory clarity for foreign investors,â said Siddik Bakir, a London- based energy analyst for the Middle East and South Asia at IHS Energy. âWestern oil companies interested in Myanmarâs hydrocarbons industry need safety because they know the risks involved.â With existing drillers Total and competitors such as Thailandâs PTT Exploration & Production Pcl (PTTEP) pumping more gas than theyâre discovering, Myanmarâs known reserves dropped an average 15 percent from 2007 to 2011, to 7.8 trillion cubic feet from 21.2 trillion cubic feet, BP Statistical Review 2012 data show. Production declined 8.2 percent to 11.2 million metric tons of oil equivalent in the period, according to the data. Economic Frontier Myanmar, called Asiaâs ânext economic frontierâ by the IMF, is trying to fund the government better by luring companies from BP Plc (BP/) to Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (RDSA) OAO Gazprom, the worldâs biggest gas producer, is in discussions with the Myanmar government to participate in energy projects in the country, according to the Moscow-based companyâs website, without giving details. Hundreds of foreign investors met in Myanmarâs capital last week as they scout opportunities in the country even as Coca- Cola Co. and MasterCard Inc. increase their presence. Fifteen years ago, companies were rushing out. PepsiCo Inc., under pressure from shareholders and activists to withdraw from Myanmar because of human rights violations there, stopped operations in 1997. Apple Computer Inc., Carlsberg A/S, the Walt Disney Co. and Hewlett-Packard Co. were among companies that also pulled out at that time. Ruby Ban The U.S. banned the import of rubies from Myanmar in 2008 to protest human rights violations. The ban still exists. The southeast Asian nation is potentially the worldâs greatest source of high-quality rubies and jadeite jade. âForeign investment is crucial for Myanmarâs economic growth,â Ba Hla Aya, Charge dâAffaires of the Myanmar embassy in New Delhi, said at a conference in Indiaâs capital city Sept. 13. âBut the economy faces challenges in terms of shortage of human resources, lack of efficient services and non-availability of adequate financing facilitates.â He said auctions of exploration blocks this year should rise to a record. Myanmar had its most inclusive elections in two decades on April 1, lawmakers are revamping the financial system and President Thein Sein, who took over from Than Shwe in March 2011, signed a preliminary cease-fire with the countryâs largest armed rebel force in a move to end the worldâs longest civil war. House Arrest Suu Kyi, who was under house arrest for 15 of the last 20 years before she was elected to parliament in April, said during a visit to Europe in June that âtransparency is the keyâ to attracting investments in the oil and gas sector. She cautioned companies from entering into joint ventures with Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise, the national oil monopoly, which she said lacked transparency. Myanmar was listed last year among nations that do not comply with minimum standards in combating human trafficking in an annual U.S. State Department report along with 22 other countries including North Korea, Iran and Yemen. Tension among its more than 100 ethnic groups âremains a potentially destabilizing factor,â the Asian Development Bank said in an Aug. 20 report. Natural gas exports increased to about $3 billion last year and are set to rise in 2013 as more gas fields and pipelines become operational, according to the Asian Development Bank. Chevron Corp. ([28]CVX), Total and China National Petroleum Corp. are among companies with oil and gas investments in Myanmar. Offshore Project Myanmar is estimated to hold between 11 trillion and 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and currently produces around 19,600 barrels per day of oil and 1.475 billion cubic feet (41.77 million cubic meters) per day of gas, IHS Energyâs Bakir said. Output may rise by 300 million cubic feet a day next year when PTT Exploration & Production starts the offshore Zawtika project. Projects operated by South Koreaâs Daewoo International Corp. in the Rakhine Basin may add 500 million cubic feet a day at a peak rate, he said. The economy may expand 6 percent this year from 5.5 percent in 2011, the IMF said in its April 2012 World Economic Outlook Report. That compares with 4.4 percent in Malaysia, 5.6 percent growth in Vietnam and 6.1 in Indonesia. Chinaâs is projected to expand 8.2 percent this year, according to IMF. Myanmar was under military rule for about five decades until President Thein Sein took office last year. The dictatorship led to economic sanctions by the U.S. and the European Union. This resulted in economies including Singapore and Thailand outpacing Myanmar, which became Southeast Asiaâs poorest nation. In 2011, the gross domestic product of Myanmar, with a population of 62 million, was $54.8 billion, while Singapore with 5.2 million people had $180 billion. Back in 1969 Myanmarâs GDP was about $6 billion, compared with $8.8 billion for Singapore, according to World Bank and International Monetary Fund data. Backtracking on Democracy President Thein Seinâs attempt to open the economy to foreign investments is not the first time Myanmarâs leadership has taken steps toward restoring a democracy only to backtrack. The junta released Suu Kyi from house arrest in May 2002, prompting the UN to call it a âmajor developmentâ toward national reconciliation. By June 2003, Suu Kyi was back in detention. In September, Thein Sein halted work on the $3.6 billion Myitsone hydropower dam across the Irrawaddy being built with China Power Investment Corp., saying the project was against the will of the people. âThe Myanmar government is genuinely keen to carry out the reform and opening-up process the right way,â Gilholm of Control Risks said. âThey want top energy companies to come in with their technology and expertise, not only to explore and exploit resources but also to pass on best practice know-how.â To contact the reporter on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jason Rogers at jrogers73@bloomberg.net * Tweet * Facebook * LinkedIn * Google Plus * [29]Comments * Email * [30]Print From (enter your email) ___________________________________________________________________ To (enter up to 5 email addresses, seperated by commas) ___________________________________________________________________ Notes ________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________ Max 250 characters [31]Business Exchange: What your peers are reading. 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[120]Pictures: India celebrates Republic Day 9:19pm IST Rift in Myanmar over draft investment law IFRAME: [121]http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fin.reut ers.com%2Farticle%2F2012%2F08%2F29%2Fmyanmar-politics-investment-idINL4 E8JS33220120829&layout=standard&show_faces=false&width=450&action=recom mend&colorscheme=light&height=35 * [122]Tweet Link this Share this [123]* President worried restrictions will hurt economy - sources * Draft law limits foreign investment in 13 sectors * Myanmar tycoons seen benefiting from changes By Martin Petty and Aung Hla Tun YANGON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Protectionist clauses... Email Print Related Topics * [124]Regulatory News >> Stocks Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:14pm IST * President worried restrictions will hurt economy - sources * Draft law limits foreign investment in 13 sectors * Myanmar tycoons seen benefiting from changes By Martin Petty and Aung Hla Tun YANGON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Protectionist clauses introduced by Myanmar's parliament to a long-awaited foreign investment law have sparked concern the legislation will scare off foreign companies and benefit the crony capitalists who have long dominated its economy. Two sources with direct knowledge of the law say President Thein Sein wants to make it attractive to foreign investors and his office has been working behind the scenes to convince lawmakers to ease restrictions introduced by parliament, which could approve the draft this week. The law, crucial to foreign investment in one of Asia's last frontier markets, has been stuck in Myanmar's bicameral parliament for five months. Sources involved in the issue say 94 changes have been recently introduced, ostensibly to help domestic small and medium-sized enterprises compete. New requirements for as much as $8 million in start-up capital and barriers for foreign joint ventures in 13 restricted sectors could ultimately force some foreign firms to reconsider investing in Myanmar, say officials with ties to the president. "It will just benefit a handful of the businessmen who had already made a fortune," said a senior industry official with close knowledge of the drafting process, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Since the suspension of most Western sanctions as a reward for economic and political reforms, many foreign businesses have held off committing to investments despite praising Myanmar's potential in sectors from tourism to timber, oil and gas. Coca-Cola Co, hotelier Marriott International Inc , automakers Suzuki Motor Corp and Ford Motor Co and tech firms Panasonic Corp and Toshiba Corp have expressed interest in entering Myanmar. Many multinational executives say they want regulatory clarity in a market dominated for decades by tycoons with ties to well-connected generals - a tightly knit circle of cronies who face competitive threats as the government seeks to liberalise the economy and introduce greater transparency. The overhaul of the law puts restrictions on 13 sectors, limiting foreign firms to a maximum 49 percent investment. The restricted sectors include manufacturing, farming, agriculture and fisheries. The law would require foreign firms to put up between $5 million and $8 million in start-up capital for a 35-49 percent stake in joint ventures with a Myanmar partner. The revised law also requires that local companies match or contribute more capital than their foreign partner, a clause that could play into the hands of Myanmar's cronies, some of whom remain blacklisted by Western governments because of ties to the former military junta. "FLEXIBLE" APPROACH URGED Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar's economy at Australia's Macquarie University, said the draft's changes represented a backlash to the reform process by entrenched vested interests, which had prevailed in some other post-transition countries. "Instead of moving to a more liberal economic environment, some within the country seem to be pushing towards an outcome that could see the effective 'oligarchisation' of Burma's economy," he said. Another source familiar with the law said the President's Office was being kept informed of the work of parliamentary committees tasked with handling the legislation and had relayed to lawmakers concerns about the impact of proposed changes. In consultation with his advisers, Thein Sein had urged a more "flexible" approach. That would include dropping the $5 million start-up capital requirement and increasing foreign shares in joint ventures in the restricted sectors, the source said on the condition of anonymity. The investment law is one of the biggest pieces of legislation handled by a parliament that has become increasingly vocal under the leadership of lower house speaker, Shwe Mann, a decorated former general and an influential powerbroker. Like Thein Sein, Shwe Mann was a heavyweight in the former junta who has won international praise for his role in driving reforms in the 17 months since the military ceded power. Changes to the draft legislation, which initially allowed 100 percent investments by foreigners in any sector, followed a June 30 meeting in Yangon between Shwe Mann and Myanmar businessmen who urged an immediate review of the law. According to parliamentary sources, lower house members discussed the bill with local businesses between July 6 and 11 and then asked the upper house to send it back. The bill was returned to the upper house recently with 94 points for amendment, which included the new restrictions. [125]Regulatory News IFRAME: [126]http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fin.reut ers.com%2Farticle%2F2012%2F08%2F29%2Fmyanmar-politics-investment-idINL4 E8JS33220120829&layout=standard&show_faces=false&width=450&action=recom mend&colorscheme=light&height=35 * Tweet this * Link this * Share this * Digg this * Email * [127]Reprints Comments (0) This discussion is now closed. 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